UNP Predictions--Pt I

Posted as a comment on CNN article citing the recent Field Poll (allegedly post-Edwards) showing Clinton over Obama with a statistically insignificant 36-34 lead ("with 18% undecided"--does that mean 12% committed to Others? Seems unlikely.):

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/03/poll-suggests-obama-clinton-in-dead-heat-in-california/#comment-450480


I'm doing a more serious spreadsheet analysis for tomorrow, but I'll go with some intuitive prediction (based on a national 46-46 tie, with 8% "OTHER" or "True Undecided" (subject to decision in the last day) after Edwards votes are allocated:

Unofficial National Primary popular vote: 50-47 Clinton
Feb. 5 delegates won: Obama 870-810 (one undecided)
States won (popular vote): Clinton 14-8

(not counting Amer. Samoa, Americans Abroad)

Given this split decision,
the key to claiming a Perceived Victory is California. Obama will edge Clinton there, 48-46, and win the delegate count 205-165. By a narrow margin, Obama will be perceived to have the edge coming of Super Tuesday, though this will not be established until well into Super Wednesday (EST).

The eight states I'm coming up with, a priori, for Obama are:
Open primaries: AL, IL, and GA; Closed primary: NM; and Semi-open primary CA.
Open caucuses ND and MN; and Closed caucus KS.

The only ones I would consider to be upsets are NM for Obama and CO (Closed caucus) for Clinton.