We are waiting breathlessly here for final outcome in NM, but it looks extremely good. The reporting was delayed tremendously by a combination of ice, snow, turnout, and bad planning. The third, in particular, is a good omen for Obama, while the last may end up hurting Bill Richardson the most. The ice and snow, ultimately, were not a factor--we here in Taos turned up consistently, all day. Did not get the local results, though--will post those here later as a comment.
I was poll observer for the Obama campaign in the main polling place in town. All of the problems were ones caused by unexpectedly large turnout.
From the Obama point of view, this can all be only good news.
From the Rasmussen Markets point of view, a successful outcome in NM is key to a successful night. My expectations were very accurate, but my trading execution was not. I lost $400 on the CA primary when I tried to hedge my winning position on Obama tonight (his value had gone way up) and I ended up going the wrong direction on the Clinton account (selling her, when I should have picked a convenient price and bought her winning). We had a sizable winner on MN, a smaller one on DE, a well-priced loss on MA (I thought) , and a very small loss on NJ (going for the pricing on the longshot).
Obama's narrow loss in CA did overshadow his later victory in MO and the impressive one here in NM.
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