I'm More Than Willing To Be Proven Wrong

This is the post in which I have to admit that I predicted that Barack Obama's underdog bid would come down to the result of the Feb. 5 California primary.

Victory, said I, would come down to three areas: delegate count, the CA outcome (in delegates and in popular vote), and the unofficial national popular vote. I was glad CNN came out with the latter, though they waited until midnight or so to mention it. It was a tie, as was delegates (mas o menos). So the outcome of The Big One didn't matter so much.

Both candidates labor on. I do believe those who now estimate that the key contests appear to be Ohio and Texas--Hillary and Obama will be nearly tied going into those--with Pennsylvania to follow and validate any decision-like behavior to emerge from those two. Ohio and Texas will be tough challenges for Obama, but if he can win them he will be hard to stop. Even if he did lose California.

The California defeat (201-169 in delegates, according to my favorite tracking blog: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/) resulted from a carefully considered Obama strategy. The campaign sent its troops of organizers out into flyover territory and relied on media buys in California. The results have to be judged largely successful.

Still, to go for a stale boxing analogy, he failed to land a knockout blow though she's hurt badly; this could go 15. I don't see a brokered convention, though, except in the form of a credentials challenge on the Florida and Michigan delegates. It is incumbent on Howard Dean to move to defuse this one before the convention. Otherwise, as the unknown delegates become known and the superdelegates identify their interests with one or the other, there should be no more than a handful of uncommitted going into the convention. Somebody's got to have the edge, and the spread is more likely to be greater than that uncommitted number.

In the days following her Marginal Super Tuesday Win, Clinton's Rasmussen Markets numbers have dropped sharply, probably on the news of the financing of Hillary's campaign. The offer of a debate a week from the Clintonites is a good attack angle, with Obama losing if he accepts and looking weak if he doesn't. His response has been cagey, which is wise: it would make sense for him to agree to only a couple more debates with HRC, on location in Columbus, Dallas, and/or Philadelphia. The lesson from California is that Obama does have to lend his physical presence in a committed way for the magic to happen.

I find the numbers on Rasmussen showing Obama with the highest probability of becoming our next president to be way too optimistic. He's at 37, McCain at 36.6, and Hillary at 27. (Huckabee is at 0.7, which I suppose represents the real possibility that he could be the beneficiary as running mate if McCain should die before November). I don't want to sell on my guy, so I'm staying out of that market for now, but still...