Translate

Saturday, February 02, 2008

So, It's Down to a 3-Way Race...

...that's Hillary, Obama, and Gravel.

Edwards' move to withdraw is the most dramatic event to occur so far in this final, hectic week before the Unofficial National Primary.

It has put a large element of unpredictability in the overall Democratic results we can expect for Feb. 5. The polls without Edwards in them are few and far between--at least the ones being quoted; however, I can well imagine the direct Clinton-Obama matchup has been tested for weeks by the candidates' pollsters, including Edwards'. How else could Edwards assess the math and determine that his most significant impact would be to withdraw and endorse no one?

I feel that his strategy at this point is to let events take their run in the UNP; then, if Obama wins CA, to endorse him.

....And 4 in the Boring Race...
by my count (McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Paul).

What's really boring about the Republicans is their quest for conformity, their obvious pack behavior. McCain's winner-take-all triumph in Florida has started a landslide of the Republican establishment that can end only one way. So far, it's the "moderates", like Rudy and Arnold, but eventually those who see themselves as "mainstream Republican" fish will all swim with the other minnows to the Only Candidate Who Can Prevent Disaster. A few outliers will remain outside McCain's eddy to be scooped up by Ron Paul's 3rd party bid, Obama if he wins, or just Stay Home. Sounds like a plan.


No comments: