Can Anyone Beat These Dodgers?

 I'm watching the Padres-Brewers, the most appealing match-up so far in the playoffs, as they vie for the opportunity to challenge the two-time defending champions.  The Dodgers have all stars at most positions and plenty of pitchers, so there is reason to doubt.  

The Milwaukee Brewers are leading in the series, 2-1, and so the odds clearly favor their chances in this round, but I'm not convinced the San Diego Padres are going to lose it.  In my view, they could have won either of the two games in Milwaukee, losing both by a single run, before winning game 3 by the same margin.  

The first Brewers-Padres game turned on a freak occurrence:  down 3-2 but with a runner on base, Ty France of the Padres hit a moonshot.  It had all the characteristics of a homerun (launch angle, exit velocity), but it was unusually high and hit the rafters of Milwaukee's ballpark, and dropped straight down into the glove of Jackson Chourio, waiting near the wall.  By the "ground rules" of the park, a ball hitting the rafters in fair territory was in play. A homer would have put SD up 4-3 in the final inning. 

In the second game, Padres led 3-2 in the ninth and they brought in Mason Miller to finish the game.  He was by far the very best closer (reliever to finish games) of the regular season in either league.  On this occasion, he was "tight"--looked nervous, wasn't finding the strikezone enough.  He loaded the bases while getting two out, but then the same Chourio hit a liner just past Miller and the diving second-baseman, knocking in both the score-tying run and the winning run. Turns out Miller had reason to be stressed:  his wife went into labor the next day and he skipped the game.

The Brewers do not follow the current trend in building a team, as epitomized by the Dodgers: pursuing the expensive power hitters mixed with savvy veterans.  The Brewers don't have a real power hitter  but score plenty of runs, often putting together several in an inning without extra-base hits.  They supplement that with quality pitching, especially their deep relief corps.

 Pitching is always a key variable in the post-season, and games tend toward being low-scoring.  The Dodgers' pitching, led by Yamamoto, seems to have come together well at the right time of the season.  They coasted to 100 wins, overcoming plenty of injuries.  They had the second-best record in the regular season,  a couple games worse than the Brewers.  

The Brewers would seem to be the logical ones to de-throne L.A.,, but I'd like the Padres' chances better, if they can get past Milwaukee. The Padres and Dodgers are legitimately rivals in the N.L. West Division, and Fathers are the only team to win the division over the Dogs in the last 14 years!  They know them intimately from playing so many games against them..They have a chip on their shoulder and two superb stars in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr.   Let's avoid the question of whether it would be OK if we didn't have LA or SD anymore... 

There is another league, and the winner of the American League gets to face the Dodgers if none of the above are able.  The best team in the AL this year was the Tampa Bay Rays, which took the place of last year's Toronto Blue Jays as the surprise winners in the AL East, over the perennially contending Yankees and Red Sox.  (Those latter two met in the pre-playoff round, and the surviving Yankees were then ousted by the Rays tonight.)  Let's not talk about the AL Central or West except to say they got three of the six postseason spots, all on one side of the AL elimination bracket.  I'm rooting for the Chicago White Sox to come through.  They turned around a string of terrible seasons this year by pulling away from a pack of mediocre teams in the final weeks. 

Something seriously wrong there, I'd say.It took 87 wins to make the postseason tourney in the NL but only 81 in the AL. Perhaps they could consider, now that interleague play is so prevalent, seed teams 7-12 with the best records in either league as the opponents in the first round against the six division winners. I've heard the NBA considered it, because its Western Conference was so dominant, but it never happened and the disparity has decreased--a little. 

 

The cap I've been wearing: 

 

 

 

Obit Dept.

Jesse Jackson- I remember the '84 Democratic campaign, when he made his most serious run at the nomination. As usual, I backed the wrong horse, John Glenn, who had the resume (first US man to circle the earth in space, elected twice senator from Ohio) but not the campaigning chops. I was young, but I think my instinct that the idea of a Democratic hero for President is more valid than ever, and it was always good.  

As for Jesse, I never believed he would win, in the way I did believe in Barack Obama as a viable black aspirant to win the White House. I appreciated Jesse's arguments, his classic ministerial manner of speech, though.  In the end, it was between Mondale and Hart, both obvious losers to Reagan.  Mondale was the won who ended up winning the loss.  

There was a lot more to Jesse, though, than his political candidacy.  He was a public moral goad to our country, ever since the days of MLK's assassination.  So he gets a lot of credit for the progress that has been made, and his loss signifies the tragedy of this moment. *

Robert Duvall - The most professional American (US) actor you could ever find. Acted in countless films, sometimes starring, sometimes in minor roles.  Always filled the role admirably; it seemed that he was that person, which left his true nature and feelings hidden. Most memorably put his stamp forever on the role of "consigliere"--counselor at-large--in the Godfather films. 

Lee Hamilton - a role model in so many ways, he personified characteristics like humility, wisdom, integrity, in his decades in Congress and in public service.  He may not be well-remembered anymore; I must do a little to deal with that and give my thanks. 

I followed his career from his earliest days in Congress in the '60's--he represented a part of Indiana of farms and medium-sized towns, and including Columbus, where I had politically active relatives.  He was a moderate Democrat who managed to get elected, by large margins, time after time as the political needle in Indiana moved steadily to the right.  (When he left Congress, his seat went to Mike Pence.) The area prospered, so that may have helped his ability to stay in place, but his specialty was foreign affairs and national security.  He was chosen to co-write the official review of 9/11 and its causes, which was and remains authoritative. 

Sonny Jurgensen - There was a time when I was a fan of the Washington Redskins.  That was the time when Jurgensen was their.   quarterback.  He made their team exciting, and that was the team we would normally get on our local game telecast (CBS, Virginia TV stations).  After him came George Allen as coach and Billy Kilmer as quarterback, and I walked away from them and their patriotic pretensions.  I have not turned back. 

Bill Mazeroski - Just slightly before my time as a conscious baseball fan, Maz's 9th-inning homer won the 1960 World Series for the Pittsburgh Pirates in a riotous seventh game against the New York Yankees.  He was more renowned for his fielding than his hitting, but he did have that one forever-memorable bomb, and it defeated the Yankees.  I respected that enormously; the next year (my first as a conscious baseball fan), the Yankees resumed their position on top against the team I follow, the Reds (preseason forecast coming soon). 

Mickey Lolich - I can't say that much, but I have a clear memory of that 1968 season.  Denny McLain won 31 games during the regular season, an incredible feat that may never be approached, let alone matched or exceeded.  Lolich was the #2 starter for those Tigers, but it was he who won three World Series games against the Cardinals, and their stud pitcher, Bob Gibson, who bested McLain.  Lolich had a better career than McLain.  

 

*I procrastinated on this post to the degree that I am finishing it while Obama, Biden, Clinton, Rev. Al et al. are commemorating Jesse (and tying it in with today's Drumpfenreich situation) so much better than I could.  Glory to Jesse!  

 

...Anni Aurei

("Of the Golden Ages") 

Everyone's doing their Best Of...lists.  Here's some of my picks, throwing in a few Latin words (as we follow blindly down ancient Rome's path toward dissolution): 

Word (nomen) - brainworm. 

There have been multiple mots thrown out there on the wall, Time Magazine-style.  The most ridiculous I heard was the first one, "demure", from Dictionary.org, but really from some influencer who misuses it all the time to the point that it has become standard English, like the varied usages from "literally", "precipice", "leafy", and "vibrant".  In this case, I wouldn't know, maybe it trended strongly; but, do we have to celebrate it? 

Oxford went with "brain rot'.  I don't know, was this their translation of RFKJr's former malady, or are they still being haunted by the prions of mad cow disease?  

The Economist dragged it out in their essay, but finally went with "kakistocracy", the rule by the incompetent.  They remain indignant at the lack of good government.  I think "idiocracy" will surely be nominated by someone; that movie made a big comeback this year as it seemed to signal a logical endpoint for all our society's worst trends toward, yes, incompetency, performative politics, big piles of shit, etc.  I think what we're getting so far is just the first part, "Id-cracy", rule through the id of an idiot.  But that's just temporary; we could still avoid full idiocracy with  more education of the populace and a little less nihilistic "don't give a shit" attitude. .

Returning to my main point, I am still going with the Kennedy reject as my personal focal point of dissatisfaction with this year's version of the multiverse.  (see "Lathe of Heaven", below)  There must be some other place where the Kennedy heritage is destined to end up,  other than kneeling at the foot of  Drumpf, then playing the Fool in spreading some widespread, avoidable avalanche of a health catastrophe.  In my outlier thesis, it's his fault that Harris lost.  This is altogether too weird.

Film - (cacumen) 

For me, it will be "Dune, Part Two", though it was released too early to be a significant Oscars contender.  I thought it lived up to my expectations, which were high.  I think one additional episode should be enough from Mr. Villeneuve, who has now topped The Mexicans (take your pick of the big 3) as top international film director.  A year or so for him to get perspective on how to handle all the the many successive novels and the gist of them, but some of it can be speed-walked.  Particularly the part about the Dominant Worm ("God Emperor"). A little more "Chapterhouse of Dune", the backstory that is behind the streaming serial "Dune: Prophecy"(not impressed) might help the understanding.  Anyway...

I'm eager to see the early Dylan biopic with Timothee Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown").  I'd have to guess he may be Best Actor in the Oscars, and this is surely Angelina Jolie's chance to win Best Actress for her portrayal of Maria Callas (in "Maria"), unless she messed it up entirely.  I'm not considering any of these post-Thanksgiving entries, though;  they can be on my Film of the Year list for 2025, if they are good enough.

I'd say "Lee", Kate Winslet's WWII vehicle, and "Conclave", the story of a fictional election of a Catholic Pope, are movies that were released in good time and had some good points ("Lee" was an unheralded true story, "Conclave" had good use of foreign languages in the Vatican's polyglot environment, fine roles for Ralph Fiennes, Isabella Rossellini, and Italian Sergio Castellitto), but did not reach paradigm-shifting excellence.  One that went for it was "Anora", the tragicomic sex flick of a stripper and a Russian oligarch's wayward son.  It has the same crazy energy as two recent international triumphs, "Parasite" and "Everything, Everywhere, All at Once" but I think it falls short in terms of social significance.   

As for the season's two big blockbusters, I haven't seen "Wicked", but I will do so though it's not my cup of witches' brew, and "Gladiator II" does not interest me--I love historical fiction but this is an unhistorical one. 

Song (canticum) -

 I've read a few of these top 2024 songs lists--rarely one of albums anymore, though they are still made.  These lists have a lot of stuff representing our fractured "popular" musical environment, while I only hear a couple of the genres (rock, indie). I will try to take some listening suggestions from them--YouTube is so easy, if you don't mind a few commercials.  These Best Of.. unanimously name Kendrick Lamar's "Not Like Us" as #1. Yes, it's odious, but so are we all--I guess. 

The one I'd go with is Karen O, with Danger Mouse, on "Super Breath".  I think it's 2024, anyway.  Karen O's re-emergence as a powerful, controlled vocalist of renown in recent years was late but welcome, and D.M. gives her a suitable, classic backing instrumental line.  Yes, the breakthrough album for the Yeah Yeah Yeahs was in 2022.

Book (librum) -

 Again, I've read a few of these lists, and there is one name always on the list (some respectfully refuse to rank within the top 5 or 10).  That is "James", by Percival Everett, taking the Huckleberry Finn story from the other side, that is, Jim's.  I have to try that one. Mostly I have read Yuval Noah Harari this year and some sci-fi, and I regret little of it.  The late Ursula LeGuin still entices my reading--she wrote so much, so well.  A re-reading of her "Lathe of Heaven" (1971) was revealing in what she anticipated of our future world, and it got me thinking more about dreams, an underappreciated aspect of our lives.  Anticipating a lot of free time to read in the near future, I do have a powerful list going forward.

Person  (persona)

 TIME came out with theirs before I, to my temporary embarrassment. I was going to critique their list, which had some interesting names, along with the unnecessary repeat candidates (Trump, Musk, Putin).  Of their list, I would strongly support Yulia Navalnya . It said she was previously a candidate, but did Alexei ever win? If not him, not Nemtsov before him, TIME has let history down.  My pick: Alvin Bragg - he is the Buster Douglas (of Mike Tyson fame) of Donald Trump challengers, the one who won.  It may not have been the "World's Biggest" prize of all time, but he did it and 2024 was the year. (Biden already got his in 2020, with Harris alongside).

Athlete (athleta) - 

 I saw that one of the sports mags named women's basketballer Caitlin Clark as Sportsperson of the Year, and I respect that choice for the huge impression she has made this year for the sport.  I would go with Stephen Curry, for a career of great NBA success, somehow exceeded by his amazing series of three-pointers in the desperate fourth-quarter comeback against Nikola Jokic and Serbia in the semifinal game of the 2024 Olympics.  Meaningful, and memorable.  Second choice would be for Freddie Freeman, for a similar career of success topped off by a remarkable game-winning homer for the Dodgers in Game 1 of the Series.

Food  (cibus) - 

 This is the Golden Age of Global Food.  I think a lot of the international shipment of food items will tail off due to increased price, climate change considerations, and more blights of food products.   Coffee and avocados are two products we can expect to become more scarce, much more expensive.  Forget about those lousy unripe Chilean fruits we see in the market.  My pick is a domestic product--Talenti gelato and sorbetto, which captures the essence of Italian high-end iced product and packs it tightly in nearly unopenable jars and sells it for $5-6 a pint--high-end price also, but well worth it.  The man credited with putting it on the market, Dean Phillips, ran a quixotic campaign in '24 to replace "too old" Joe Biden. He didn't get far, but he planted the idea that blossomed out of control after Biden's debate with Trump.

Lots of links I could have added--go find the lists yourselves if you want.  I gave you my choices.  Latin translations by Google translate, which isn't too swift on the Latin.  Not enough current data for the AI learning machine, I'd say.

Developments

About the UHC CEO Assassination

As US assassins go, Luigi Mangione seems more intelligent than the others; in particular, he can articulate his thoughts.*  Some ladies seem to find him attractive.  If I were the authorities in PA and NY, I wouldn't rush the extradition, but rather bring forward the gun charges for which he was arrested--those are a slam dunk. I don't doubt that Alvin Bragg (my choice for Person of the Year, over Dickhead 2.0) will eventually get some kind of conviction in Manhattan, too, but going for the maximum might be a reach too far.  Mangione should have access to good lawyers and will have some kind of painful story to tell that might work to some extent. 

What I really want to talk about, though, is United Healthcare.  Yes, I'm a customer, I think--it's just Medicare's Part D, it costs little and currently provides comparably little benefit but whatever. Mangione is way off-base if he was pissed that he couldn't get all the treatment he wanted; that's such a First-World problem.  There is rationing of healthcare in all systems.  On the other hand, if it was the insurers who made his pain worse because they induced him to get sub-standard care--the result of which didn't look so hot on that X-ray associated with his back--then he had some beef with them.  But a gangsta approach does no one any good.  And, frankly, he was more Bernie Goetz+ than Unabomber material, but he might do well on the witness stand.

There's a real, enduring problem with our healthcare system, and it's called the profit motive of the middlemen involved.  UHC is probably the worst offender, though statistics can be biased easily depending on what is measured.  They are sucking the value out of the whole process with their relentless pursuit of more money.  They need to be more like--gasp!--utilities, with profit levels basically guaranteed but limited, strict measurement of reliability of customer treatment, and some mandatory regulatory oversight.  In fact, they should be utilities, full stop. We don't have to go all the way to eliminate them as profit-making enterprises, which was the real mistake of the Medicare for All movement.  The pharma/insurance lobby got its back up.  Not to mention all the jobs.

Trump's Cabinet and Other Nonentities

I don't get too worked up about the fate of the crappy nominees Trump has chosen, even for his Cabinet Secretary positions.  For the most part, anyway:  I do think RFKJr is the one who must be stopped, and I think his non-conforming policy positions on some subjects (not vaccines, but more like on corn oil, abortion pills, etc.) could end up sinking his chances with enough Republicans to deny him.

The ones like Gabbard or Hegseth, if they get the votes, it won't change things all that much.  There are overly well-developed organizations beneath them that will go around them, if they are too flaky. And can you imagine a Cabinet meeting of the clowns?  On the one hand, it would be a joke--a bad one--and wouldn't be a good use of time.  On the other, though, it would flatter POTUS--it better--so he might want to have more of them this time around. The betting notion would be the over/under on the number of Trump Cabinet meetings Rubio attends.  Preliminary line: 3.    

I don't mean to minimize the damage Trump will do, but he's got four years--two, really. This joke will get old, while still young.  And by "joke" I mean "scam". 

Playoffs:  College and NBA

I give some credit to the NCAA planners who have come up with a viable expansion of their college playoffs, which they roll out this year.  They are going from 4 teams (the critical cut happening at the #4/5 ranked team) to 12 teams (as it happens, that will be a cut from #10/11).  There is still not a great deal of satisfaction, particularly from the SEC, though their teams muddied up the waters by beating each other up somewhat randomly in the big games. Alabama is the team that gets gored this year, #11.  Seems strange, but Alabama did lose three games in its regular season.   

The correct answer is 14, as in 14 teams in the playoffs.  Two conference champions deserve byes, the SEC and the "Big Ten"+.  (The other two teams getting the byes were bad jokes I won't recite.) Those are the only two conferences that matter, and all the best football programs are migrating to them if they can. (Except Notre Dame, of course--they are special.)   Anyway, with 14 teams in the mix, the two losers from the conference championships get home field vs. #13 and #14, then the other eight teams play in neutral bowl locations and are seeded #5-#12.   That is where they will likely go before too long.  They are learning the lessons from the NCAA's other marquee event, the basketball championships (now both men's and women's), which have maximized participation to great effect. 

The NBA has hedged completely that critical cut by making two of them, one more absolute and the other more real.  Every competitive team's goal has to be to get into at least the top 6 of their conference, though 10 teams make the postseason in some form.  Teams 7-10 still have a shot in brief playoffs, though they will be disadvantaged.  It's a good design.  

They also seem to have done well, so far anyway, with their new early-season event the NBA Cup, now progressing through its second season.  It's created enthusiasm and the players have mostly bought in.  The result has been a lot of close, meaningful games with near-playoff atmosphere.  It's only the second season, though; the relationship between NBA Cup success and success in the real thing, the playoffs, has yet to be demonstrated convincingly.  The Lakers did win the Cup and reach the conference finals, though, last year; the latter was a surprise.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are the top team left in the final four, judging by regular season record; they will also likely be favorites in the playoffs, along with the Celtics, who did not make the final four, in the East. . 

 

*So to speak. I thank Ken Klippenstein for printing the manifesto in its entirety in his Substack, which the big boys chose not to do, though they selected quotes to support their hot takes. 

+ I will seek to refer to all college conference names other than the SEC in shock quotes, to draw attention to their transparent greed-seeking behavior. And because their names are such lies. Repeatedly. 

Biden Out...For Real!

 First, I refer all to my previous post from last September, "Biden Out", if you haven't already looked upon it. It was a good effort at creative prognostication: I had some things right and some wrong; most notably I never thought President Biden could be convinced that someone else would have a better chance than he to defeat Trump, which was the critical consideration.  Though it would seem at this moment that it is clear which scenario we will have all the way to November, and I certainly don't expect Biden to return to active campaigning for the nomination, it  is still possible for a "Trump Collapse" to occur, for Trump to join Biden on the sidelines, or for "Chaos" to take over the campaign (as it might have done if Crooks' bullet had found its presumed mark, or if the Democrats' attempt to improvise a Harris bandwagon loses its wheels). 

Next, I give full credit to our President for realizing that the dynamics were pushing him inevitably toward dropping out.  The poll numbers did not move immediately after his debate failure, but they were moving, consistently, and his deficit was getting beyond the margin of error.  He commissioned polling on VP Harris to run against Trump, and I'm guessing it was a couple points better than his numbers.  Then, to top it off, he got back out on the campaign trail and immediately came down with Covid, which was being stubborn and which no doubt changes one's mood.  The rebellion of insecure Democratic Congresspeople paused for a few days but was once again mobilizing against his continuing on. In spite of all this, he deserves a huge salute for being willing to do the right thing, and for immediately endorsing his VP. 

There will be a process, and some fool may even stand up to oppose Harris' nomination, but she will get it. There's no time for developing any organized resistance, there's no sign of it yet, and there's no real reason for it.  She can go out and "prosecute the case against Trump" (as everyone has noted, indirectly referring to the prosecutor jobs which made her career) while Biden continues on as President.  I see no chance he will not complete his term unless he has a total physical collapse; he really wants to nail down the end to the carnage in Gaza. 

Initially, she will only get a small bump, if any, but the downward momentum will stop. The campaign will generate a lot of new money, which will make a difference down the road.  I see a lot of potential to bounce right over Trump in the popular vote, though the Electoral College is still going to be a great challenge, and the Senate even more so.  The change will help in particular the desperate effort to get control of the House, the only vestige of Federal power the Democrats are likely to have unless they can defeat Trump. It wouldn't be much, but it would keep some very bad laws from coming into effect.  (If laws even matter, if Trump wins.  I'm trying not to think that way, though, at least today.)

I'd like to see Kamala make a statement Biden was never willing to make (though some falsely accused him of saying it) and announce that she would only serve the one term from 2025-2029.  That would first of all ensure that those hungry Democratic governors who were planning to run in 2028 would not make the mistake of challenging her now; it would keep the focus on defeating Trump, and it would put a finite end on the Obama/Biden/Harris succession and provide some fresh air for the future campaign (which would begin in 2025, no doubt). 

Personally, I have been advocating for candidates for President to show a willingness to serve one term only.  The evidence is pretty strong that second-terms bring poor government; the self-limiting nature of such a decision as President Biden has made is a perfect example for the future.  Generally, anyone who wants to be President all that much (as Trump does, frankly to keep himself out of prison) should never be considered. I would support a constitutional amendment to make the Presidency a single term, of five or six years, and further to create a permanent office with significant powers able to investigate any of the branches of the Federal government, independent of the Department of Justice.  (The New FBI?)

This was a tough day for Joe Biden, but a good day for America.  And that means a bad day for Trump-Vance. 

This Is The Day...

 of our maximum discontent.

There is literally nothing I will allow myself to watch tonight, so I have sworn not to turn it on.  (That includes streaming, which I basically don't do anyway.)

Not even the All-Star Game, which in baseball terms is something less than the real thing--that was over a couple nights ago, providing a few moments of relief.  Regular baseball action starts back up tomorrow.   

The Cups--of Europe and of the Western Hemisphere--of soccer have concluded--congratulations to Spain and Argentina.  It was a big test, before the World Cup in 2026, for coaches' ability to put functional teams together.  Some passed the test, others will lose their jobs. 

Wimbledon is over.  Alcaraz established himself as King of the Hill, though there will be a multi-sided effort to dethrone him at the US Open in a couple of months.  Sinner is still the points leader, but Carlos is on the warpath.  On the women's singles side, chaos continues to reign at Wimbledon.  Swiatek hasn't figured the grass out quite yet, and Sabalenka bowed out. The title went to Barbora Krejcikova of Czechia, for her this was not her first chaotic rodeo victory. 

The Olympics - not yet. I'm not so hardcore that I have to watch NBA Summer League. MLS (Major League Soccer) doesn't tend to hold my interest for long. 

And then there's the news, which I am strenuously avoiding, all week.  Not interested in watching the selected Republican bootlickers, nor in seeing the nominee's speech, or the discussion of it before, during, or afterwards.  I am certain that Trump profiled his new con:  pretending to be a normal political candidate in a constitutional republic.  Don't believe it. 

As for President Biden, he took up the challenge to go out on the road and campaign actively for a few days, as I suggested.  The result was Covid, and I am now of the opinion that it is time for him to admit his limitations and bow out of the race (though he does not need to resign his position). He should vigorously endorse his VP Kamala Harris and offer his ongoing counsel to the Democrats, particularly should they win and hold the White House.  With our thanks.  

I have thought a bit about the attempted assassination of Trump over the weekend.  As for the young Republican incel gun nut who shot at him, nicking Trump's ear but killing one in the audience and wounding two others, he was following in the footsteps of other fools who think their act of stochastic violence would provoke a general mass uprising.  It's failed many times before.  Clearly, there was a slip-up by the Secret Service and local authorities allowing someone with a long rifle to post up less than 200 yards from the stage. 

Say, Hey!

The photo here is of the 1964 Strat-o-Matic card for the great baseball star Willie Mays, who died recently at the age of 93.  The card, frankly, was the main way I knew him:  he was playing on the West Coast then, and the Game of the Week (the only game on TV) was usually the Yankees and someone, and the SF Giants came around to Cincinnati (my team) about once a year.  1964 was a very good year for him, near his top (1965 was his second Most Valuable Player year), as he led the league in homers with 47.  His .296 batting average was near his lifetime average.  He was consistently at the top of the league from 1954 (when he returned from military service) until the late '60's.  

We saw more of him later, as he began to decline.  He was in a race with Henry Aaron for the second-most home runs for a while, but he retired and Aaron stayed on for several more years, eventually catching Babe Ruth for the all-time lead.  On the subject of the All-Stars, he was named 20 times to it. Certainly one of the greatest of our lifetimes. 

I will mention here the comedian Bob Newhart, who passed away even more recently at the age of 94.  I remember the early version of him, when he did a sort of nerdy, white-guy stand-up comedy (air-traffic controller sketch?).  What most will remember of him, though, was his starring role in the Bob Newhart Show, much later, when he played a normal guy reacting with good humor to his unusual neighbors (in Maine, was it?). His deadpan, accompanied by laugh track, was a good formula for situation comedy for several years. 

 

 

Part III: Domestic

 

 Fraud

 In my opinion, it is the greatest current threat to (American) quality of life, and I write it in when I am polled for my opinion of the most salient issue.  

The icon of fraud is Donald Trump, who is fraudulent in most any way that can be described.  Liar, con man,pretender, and falsifier of documents, tax returns, charitable contributions--can't think of more offhand, but I would add his relations with his wives, ex-wives, and sexual targets.

I can't blame it all on him, but there are frauds arising in all sorts of activity, new ones all the time.  The most outrageous one I heard about recently regards the new credit card initiative for "Tap and Pay" on their cards.  I was opposed to that already--it's too easy to buy things, why make it more easy and less controlled?  So, the way this works is some fraudster approaches, too close, to your wallet with your Tap and Pay card; they have a POS device (Point of Sale, not the other meaning) concealed in their coat pocket, and they activate it against your nearby card.  Not for big purchases, there's a max, without PIN or signature of $50 or less, but they could do it against multiple cards, and you wouldn't even know it happened. 

A few years ago, the hottest fraud play, producing billions of ill-gotten gains a year, involved the creation of fake identities, carefully built with real credit bureau records.   The attack involved taking several loans or balance transfers, then suddenly disappearing without a trace.   Nowadays, what I see, apart from the obvious and frequent spam attacks, are clever imitations of the real relationships people have which are used to elicit voluntary payment or authorizations.  The Nigerian scam 2.0. 

These threats are the reason why you have to get a second verification after you put in your PIN or password, every time you use a new device, or the same device from a new location.  They are driving restraint of legitimate activity. Financial institutions cooperate in tracking down and fighting fraudsters, but it isn't enough.  It is one area where national interests coincide globally and government agencies need to expend real effort. 

Trial and Election Update

Speaking of defrauding the public, how about that Truth Social IPO?  Totally legal theft from the easily gulled. Big meme, not funny.  All to finance the continuation of the con in Trump's courtroom struggles. People focus on the delays, which are many, but Trump continues to lose. He still has a chance to win big, if he can somehow convince enough voters in the swing states to bring it home, though time does not appear to be on his side for that outcome.  

Of the different scenarios discussed previously, I'd rate the probabilities as follows:  Status Quo 50%, Trump Collapse 30%, Chaos 10%, Biden Weakened 5%, and all the Trump/Biden Out combinations 5%. 

Briefly,  if I didn't know that Trump realizes he is doomed if he loses the election, I would say that he is defying his very astute advisers and trying to lose it, with some of the things he's said.  I'd like to get the odds on exile for the would-be Once and Future King, as that's where I think it will go in the end, if he should live so long. 

I don't blame him for falling asleep during the voir dire of jury selection.  Having been on a couple of panels (and juries) myself, it is the most boring thing, though very important for the lawyers for both sides to pay close attention. 

Speaking of trials not happening (the other three), how about the "solemn consideration" Sen. McConnell wished for the Mayorkas impeachment.  After due consideration, it was rejected, accurately, as a "piece of crap" by some unnamed Democratic Congressperson.  Not just any piece, though:  a particular stinky piece of textual diarrhea.  There was a point, though:  the intention is to devalue the impeachments of Trump during his administration.  It didn't work, though. 

Covid

 Remember that?  It shouldn't be too hard, as it's still around.  Some folks seem to have nostalgic amnesia about the 2020 debacle presided over by our 45th, and disgraced, former President. 

Finally

 A bit over the top, some lyrics to a song by a beautiful, mournful group called Low (also covered by Robert Plant).  I dedicate them (with a change in the pronoun following The Great Destroyer), to Joseph Biden.  RIP, Mimi Parker!

At times I see you
You silver rider
Sometimes your voice is not enough

Your face in windows
Outside forever
Nobody dreamed you'd save the world
Nobody dreamed you'd save the world

La la la la etc

The march is over
The great destroyer
he passes through you like a knife

Oh take me with you
You silver rider
Sometimes you voice is not enough
Sometimes your voice is not enough

I should explain briefly this oblique reference.  Joe Biden is an unlikely choice as a superhero, though his opponent fits the role of a master villain, like in Batman, Dick Tracy, or Bond.  I'd say his moniker would be Ass-Face DickHead.    Anyway, it is barely an exaggeration to say that Biden must save the world from this great destroyer.  Not just our fragile democracy, those acclaimed checks and balances, but also globally:  the danger of global conflict, the end to serious efforts to control climate change, and more. 

 

 

Part II: The International One

 Chuck, Well-done! 

I salute Sen. Majority Leader Schumer in his call for new elections in Israel. 

 I respond to those who object to interference in another nation's affairs by pointing to interference in past political affairs here by the same unprincipled man now heading Israel's government. The extremist nature of Netanyahu's coalition is temporarily overshadowed only by the necessities of active warfare, but the conduct of neither does honor to Israel.   They take their cues from us, or vice versa; we need to seek what's right from one of our closest allies to be true to ourselves.

There is also the fact that Schumer--to be plain-spoken about it, a classic New York Jewish politician--is the one to make the call. If friends can't call friends, who can they call? Schumer's loyalty to Israel over the years, through thick and thin, is unquestionable by anyone of any stripe. 

Is anyone in Israel listening?  I think the answer is 'Yes'.  For one thing, they know that President Biden, who is playing this very cagily, could have stopped Schumer from making the statement at this time. His response upon receiving prior notification appears to have been, "Go ahead.  Knock yourself out."  (Schumer taking that as permission...)

I have only one question:  To whom is this call addressed?  Did he miss the Benny Gantz visit?  Was he the only one who did (besides Biden, who dodged it)?  In my view, the intended recipients are Schumer's contacts among Likud, who are "ghosting" that call for now.  One more humanitarian disaster is still required. 

I heard the contours of the newly-proposed deal reported tonight.  These seem more reasonable for a partial hostage release and six-week ceasefire, with the threat of an (approved) Rafah offensive by Israel, accompanied by some (panic) evacuations of civilians hanging over the head if Hamas doesn't take it.  I think Hamas will do so, once the appropriate ratio of prison release is determined (somewhere around 20:1 has been empirically observed, so far, in deaths; that provides a rough estimate). 

If the Hamas counter-offer after temporary ceasefire is release of all hostages for permanent ceasefire, Israel should take it, even if the terms require relaxation of the current siege. (This Netanyahu government wouldn't take it, of course, either way.  Thus the Schumer ask.)  When and if Hamas violated the ceasefire again, Israel could continue the liquidation campaign, and they would have the hostage situation finally ended.  That is why Hamas will never release all the hostages they control.  

The outcome obtained by Israel so far is the middle result:  not the complete removal of the Hamas leadership, which was the stated war aim, but more than the minimal one of making Northern Gaza into a buffer zone, buying critical moments of time for their defense against future launched attacks from Gaza. Effectively, they have a siege around the remaining parts of Hamas-dominated Gaza, as long as the Rafah border with Egypt holds.   

My conclusion, and Schumer's, is that there is no way forward, no partners for enduring peace. Time to shake things up, politically.  What he really is looking forward to is a parliamentary coup, a change in authority, with Netanyahu out as PM, but it is slightly more diplomatic to ask for new elections, which if they occurred, would produce the desired result, but much too slowly.  (Schumer also called for changes in the West Bank and in Gaza.)  Gantz' message is that he would still need to liquidate Hamas if he were to lead the government.  

Ukraine Slava!

Winter in the plains of Ukraine is no time for heavy ground maneuvers.  There has been a season of hunkering down, while the Russian artillery and missiles faced less defensive interception or retaliatory strikes. That period has to end soon; the clock is ticking.  Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to find the formula to allow the foreign aid bill to get approval without doing anything.  Very laissez-faire! Doesn't quite get 'er done, though...

Europe is filling in, for the moment.  Even the rightists are seeing the light, as Hungary approves Sweden's joining NATO and Georgia Meloni's far-right Italian government is fully backing Ukraine's cause.

Immigration

If you think this belongs in the forthcoming domestic affairs post, I choose to differ.  Migration is a worldwide problem, and the global nature of the challenge is beginning to be felt more acutely on our southern border now--before, it seemed just a hemispheric problem (which it is, also).  I do think there is a hemispheric solution to the problem, one that requires active participation with Mexico for mutual benefit.  It would look like massive expansion of a US consulate in one of the northern Mexican cities, Monterrey, maybe. There is precedent for that kind of cooperation, but it's the kind of idea that doesn't get traction.  The only kind of workable solution moves the problem off our shore/border, but we pay for (cheaper) services in the chosen focus location.  

 

 

Viewing The Trumpian Menace from the Outside

Any sensible foreign government should have considered both of the two main outcomes of this election and what their national interest should require for each. If one outcome is particularly bad for their country, it only makes sense to do what they can to affect the outcome, only being careful that they not have it backfire and produce a contrary effect. 

For the most part, though, it neither makes sense to commit too much for the Biden win strategy, nor for a Trump one.  Best not to commit.  Thus the Taiwan's election led to a clear status quo outcome, Xi has pulled back a little from his aggressive posture, and the great democracy of Indonesia takes a more studied distance from the pro-Obama Widjojo days. Even Putin knew enough to say he preferred Biden because he is more predictable: unarguable, yet showing respect for the internationally-infamous Drumpfen unpredictability.  Japan, India and Korea seem more concerned with domestic affairs--well, why not?  So are we. 

That seems to be the strategy with regard to mitigating climate change, every nation doing its own thing, the combined effect being neither synergistic nor sufficient. I won't deny progress is being made, both in developing alternative energy sources and in raising awareness.  But the global temperature is progressing on the graph toward the upper-right corner, too, as is the graph of major serious weather events. . 

More elections coming all over, I hear.  In the U.K., the ruling Conservative party is in a position similar to Netanyahu's, with a serious parliamentary drubbing forthcoming when the election is finally called. In England's case, though, there's a statutory requirement that will make it happen this year. It will be interesting to see how the Labour party will change the path, seemingly irreversible, that is steadily moving London away from relevancy.  Argentina threw in its lot with a major shake-up in a Trumpian direction, but that is an extreme reaction with plenty of popular frustration behind it.  

The Summer Olympics

The Paris Olympics will be held this summer, after the Republican convention and before the Democratic one. I am hopeful they will provide a welcome distraction from the political wars. So far, I've heard too little about the preparations for them, either here or there.  I did hear a few sports (softball, baseball among them) are not being retained; I've heard each sport federation is making its own rules on transgendered, I've heard those Russians who haven't failed their drug tests will be competing under the Olympics flag, not their own. That's about it.  I haven't heard much about the USA teams in specific sports.

 I'm very idiosyncratic about this, both a strong supporter of the Olympic ideal and a fervent opponent of the way it is done with all the nationalism, which is contrary to that ideal.  It is possible to make the centralized sport federations able to conduct competition qualification, but the block to that is that the resources would have to be provided by nations, perhaps through the medium of the United Nations.    This will no doubt feature in my upcoming listing of my brilliant ideas so far not picked up by anyone....

The Oscars

A bit of a stretch, I admit, to consider the awards of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, basically a LA.-centered bunch, in the international affairs category.  There were several awards given outside of the US film center, once again--let us not forget the recent-year successes of "Parasite" and "Everything, Everywhere, All at Once"--but the liberal US coastal elite judgments were clearly present. As an electoral body, quite predictable. 

"American Fiction" winning the adapted screenplay suited the self-referential critical Zeitgeist, for sure. So did the award to local comeback hero Robert Downey, Jr. for his role as the McCarthy-ist foil to Oppenheimer, post-bomb.   Above all, note the John & Yoko-inspired animated short winner calling for "Peace Now" (Sean Lennon on the scene)--I preferred the French "Pachyderme", if one wants to go deeper. 

The award for documentary feature to "20 Days in Mariupol" showing the brutality of the war in Ukraine also showed that liberal sensibility, which now increasingly shows some awareness of the world beyond. (My point being that the show tells.)  There was also the Godzilla movie getting the award for effects, the Mayazaki film winning the animated feature, and the four awards to the itinerant sci-fi costume drama "Poor Things", the movie that finally showed what Yorgos Lanthimos could achieve. "Zone of Interest" dominated the foreign film lane, a bit of a ruse for the British production, but it was performed and filmed on location at Auschwitz in the original languages (German, Polish, Yiddish), which is a real credential to be foreign to us.  Finally, I mention "Anatomy of a Fall", the one that got away (likewise, I couldn't catch it at the cine.).

To close, we transition through the shocker highlight of the Oscars' Obit show, the face of Alexei Navalny.  With the eponymous documentary feature of the previous year an Oscars winner, they earned the right. 

Shocking but not surprising, Navalny's death was a challenge to the world, a pure expression of ruthlessness. Navalny will be taking the cherished position in that square of political martyrs that many cities in Russia now have. There are others that are due to have places in this pantheon. But not just yet, it seems:  Putin may have been faking mortal health symptoms.  He has no doubt told his doctors to keep him alive until he can clinch a victory in 2025, though he's not sure which President he has to defeat to do it.  When that doesn't happen, he will wither up and give out.

 

Overly-Delayed Reporting: I

 Part I:  Sports

Pardon my self-indulgence, but I will survey them starting from those in which I'm most interested at this moment.  What will be present is the level of passion in my recounting.

Basketball :  In the NBA, we head toward the real thing.  By that, I mean the playoffs--including even the gimmicky "Play-in" rounds, in which the teams with the 7th to 10th best regular-season records in each Conference have single-game matchups seeking to earn the #7 and #8 seeds in the full-scale best-of-7 playoff rounds.  Those spots--which would then face #2 and #1 in the first round--would not seem so prized, but two recent title winners with large fan bases, large payrolls, and big aspirations to return to the top--the Warriors and Lakers--are likely to occupy spots in those high-pressure Play-in games.  If they were to get through, they would pose a real threat to the teams seeded #1 and #2.  

As things stand now, those top spots are occupied by newcomers to the top echelon; their regular-season performances have been major surprises.  One of these surprises is the Minnesota TimberWolves:  their acquisition at the trade deadline a year ago of 7+-foot Rudy Gobert didn't seem to work out, but this year their Two-Towers-reminiscent frontline (with Karl Anthony Towns--KAT) has worked seamlessly with rising star Anthony Edwards ("Ant-man"), and they have the best road record in the league, itself a promising stat for the playoffs, regardless of whether they end up first in Conference.  The other surprise is the Oklahoma City Thunder, making a return to strength after a decade-long rebuild, starring emerging superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ("SGA") and talented freshman stringbean center Chet Holmgren.*

The discussion so far doesn't even reach to the two most popular choices of analysts to win the West, who are currently sitting at #3 and #4.  The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions, and their combo of Jamal Murray, whose presence made the difference in getting the team over the top, and Nikola Jokic, likely to win his third MVP now and one of the most well-rounded players ever in the game, is unsurpassed in quality and now truly proven.  The LA Clippers, who should finish no worse than their current 4th, no matter how slack some of their regular-season games are, have without doubt the highest-ever quality assemblage of wing talent--Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, James Hardin, and Russell Westbrook, all future Hall-of-Famers--but will it fly?  That's unclear. 

Also unclear are the fates of potential magic combinations fitted together for this season in Dallas (Luka Doncic and Kyre Irving!) and Phoenix (Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal!)  The other two teams in the Conference mix are playoff unknowns like the current top two:  the New Orleans Pelicans overachieved, then they got Zion Williamson back (I just heard him described as "a tank that flies"); the Sacramento Kings have a pairing that has proven strong in Domantas Sabonis and DeAaron Fox, but their sometimes inconsistent play suggests playoff vulnerability.  Bottom Line:  Wide open, once someone can beat the Denver Nuggets. 

The Eastern Conference is different, but interesting in its own way.  There is a clear favorite, the Boston Celtics, who have reached the highest level with their own Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown combo but not won at that level.  This year they added two critical new pieces in point guard Jrue Holliday, who's a top man-to-man defender, and multi-talented big man Kristaps Porzingis.  As long as all four can be on the court together, they are unlikely to lose a series, so we'll see how long that lasts.

The team that looked mostly likely to challenge them, the Philadelphia 76ers, lost the big half of their key pair, Joel Embiid, to a knee injury.  He should be back for the playoffs, but whether he will have the dominant play and the great coordination with scoring point guard Tyrese Maxey seen earlier in the year (Embiid was the leading candidate for MVP then, the team right up there with Boston) is a question mark, as is the team's seeding for the playoffs.  So, the team we should expect to meet the Celtics in the Conference finals is the Milwaukee Bucks, a recent championship team that added the immense talents of Damian Lillard to those of superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.  They haven't fully meshed yet, but that could still happen in this season's playoffs.  The Miami Heat and their Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo pairing is another proven winner:  they reached the Finals last year.  They will have to knock over a couple of favored squads on the road to make the Conference finals, but they can't be counted out.

Based on improved regular-season performance, either the Knicks or Cavaliers should reasonably hope to make the Eastern Conference semis, but if the 76ers can re-coalesce well, they'll likely grab one of the spots which currently have their name on them. Bottom Line:  I'll go with the chalk:  the healthy Celtics to cruise through the Conference playoffs and outlast whichever Western team survives their side.  

Closing my commentary on the NBA, I will say their marketing is doing just fine.  The "In-season tournament" thing they came up with this year was not as bad as I feared, the key success being their ability to schedule flexibly enough that competing teams' games counted for their regular-season standings (all but the championship game itself), and teams no longer in the tourney carried on more or less normally.  So, rather than detracting from the poor old regular season, they added some interest early in it.  Also, the league is prodding players and coaches to bring their stars out on court more consistently.  I think that particular one will end with more stars' time on court being severely and strategically rationed--more games played, less minutes per game.  Of course, the main thing is the playoffs themselves, and I think the outlook for that is awesome.  

TMB? Still more on basketball, as we must look at their feeder league, a/k/a college basketball. For my money, there is a clearly dominant player, Zach Edey of  Purdue.  At 7-foot-4 with skills, Edey is a giant among mortal hoopsters.  He is a future NBA presence, though success there is far from guaranteed. At present, the Boilermakers are the #1 ranked team, though positions in the top 10 have been very fluid this season.  Some of it is the inconsistency due to the rapid turnover of teams--besides the "one and done" single season for some extremely talented players, a key feature of recent seasons has been the transfer window, allowing players to move between colleges without having to lose a year, and permitting strong college teams to rebuild quickly--but there is also a broadening of the number of powerful teams, with an increased number of upsets by unranked teams.

My personal primary focus in college basketball in 2024, as it is most years, concerns the University of Kentucky Wildcats.  In the words of Elvis Costello, This Year's Model is quite attractive, with talent, skills, and a recently-discovered ability to play defense.  Coach John Calipari has done his usual masterful job harvesting top prospects from around the country who like that team's history of producing great pro basketball players.   (Quick quiz:  How many starring players in the NBA analysis above played for U of K?+)

Although the team's record is not that impressive at 19-8 (compared to something like 25-2 of Purdue or Connecticut), these Wildcats have shown they can defeat anyone on the right day.  They have all the elements to succeed and will win big on their best days, and they even have good free-throw shooting, which always becomes essential to proceed through the tournament. What an NCAA champion has to prove, though, is that they can survive and win somehow on their worst day--they've had a few shocking losses, too. 

If necessary, I could explain at length why I simply have had to be part of  what became Big Blue Nation, uncool and incorrect as that may seem.  But I think the current reality is sufficient justification for my support.

The NCAA tournament will be extremely difficult to handicap, and I'm not ready to do so.  I would say the team I've been most consistently impressed with is Tennessee, though they've had their bad games, too. I haven't yet gotten used to watching women's college basketball, though I recognize that there are incredibly talented athletes there.  Like men's, the women's college game is about organized defense and timely scoring to win close ones, with the coach's influence front and center.

Baseball:   I'm just as excited about the upcoming baseball season as I am about the current hoops one, it's just that I don't have so much to say about the present, which is spring training.  There's plenty of recent past, for which I 'll give some quick takes, and the future pennant races, which are far off at present. 

There are some teams clearly favored to make the playoffs, either as division winner or as wild card (there are now three of each in the playoffs for each league).   Having a bye in the first-round series, as the two division winners with the best records get, has not looked like an advantage against a hot team coming off a winning wild card series, anyway not as often as their regular season advantages would suggest.  The objective, then, is making the playoffs,  anywhere from 1-6 . After that, throwing the dice and winning two or three series beyond are the icing, sprinkles, and ornamental crown on the cake.Wild card expansion has opened up late-season excitement for a lot more teams than previously, so there is benefit.  As a remedy, though, I think they should give greater advantage to the home team in the Divisional Series, which should expand to seven games.

The LA Dodgers are the super team in the re-making, but I don't expect them to look that way early in the season, even with their massive lineup.  They signed the two top free agents, Japanese ballplayers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (best pitcher in the Japanese leagues the last couple of years) and the One and Only Shohei Ohtani.  Ohtani will not be pitching in 2024 but will have this season to exhibit his hitting without any limitations.  As we can look forward to his full-time return to pitching next year, along with that of Dodger stalwart pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, it looks like 2025 could be their breakthrough.  Although they have had great regular-season success, the only year the Dodgers won the World Series title so far this century was the Covid-shortened season of 2020. 

In 2023, the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves were the teams that were supposed to be the best in each league, but they were each knocked aside in short series, with the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks the surprise World Series opponents.  Congratulations to the Rangers for finally getting the title for the first time since the hazy days of the Minnesota Twins and Washington Senators in the Sixties and beyond (literally, a long story).   

As a fan of the Cincinnati Reds (no title since 1990), I am highly enthused by my team's chances to break into the playoffs, which they almost succeeded in doing last year (being edged out in the last week for a wild card spot by the Diamondbacks and Cubs). With the kind of young talent the Reds have, though, making the playoffs this year is just one step up the ladder, without a ceiling in sight.  They made a number of moves in the offseason which shored up their depth, both in the field and on the mound, but they have not (yet) signed the veteran ace starter they will need to compete in the postseason in 2024.  There are some still available--yes, I'm a bit impatient.  Bottom Line:  Teams making the playoffs, from near-certain to wild-ass speculation--Braves, Astros, BlueJays, Rangers, Rays, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Reds, Mets, Yankees, Indians.  Sorry, Orioles, Padres, Cubs, Brewers, Bosox.

Football (a/k/a Soccer):  

It's fair to say that the 2024 season-ending race in the English Premier League should be as exciting as there has been in recent memory.  Yes, there was that incredible result in 2019 when Leicester won as a 100-1 shot, but this looks like three quality teams battering each other all the way to the finish. Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool.  Like in the jousting tourney, if Lancelot, Tristram, and Gawain faced off in a three-way.   

City is the favorite, the world champion club team and defending champ as well, but they are not leading, and they have come up short on a couple of opportunities.  Liverpool is making a mad dash to win all the trophies before their beloved coach Jurgen Klopp moves on after this season.  And Arsenal's young, exciting team looks to exploit the opportunity to reach the top and save their coach's job. 

I see Liverpool having the opportunity to create some space in front of Manchester City by winning their game with them at home on March 10, then maintaining that lead to the end with a favorable schedule.  If they don't do that, perhaps Arsenal, which has the toughest schedule down the stretch and therefore would be least favored of the trio, will do Liverpool a favor on March 27 and make City lose points.  That's what Chelsea did in their games, twice. 

I can be fairly objective,  because my dog is not in this race, really.  Chelsea has suffered, mostly, since the Ukraine War took Russian oligarch owner Roman Abramovich away from his favorite toy. Since then, there has been comparable amounts of money spent under the new ownership, but without comparable success, and the fans are nervous at a second straight finish in the middle of the 20-team table, as they've come to expect a lot. Chelsea has played well at times, particularly against Manchester City, but has come up short against teams that in past years they would defeat.

There is a promising rebuilding effort under veteran coach Mauricio Pochettino around a variety of young players, but whether it will be given time to flourish is unclear, especially because there may be crippling penalties imposed soon for unwise spending in recent years. Bottom Line:  The F.A. Cup is the last chance before Chelsea does something silly like bringing Mourinho back, one last time, so they better win it!

In International soccer, Chelsea's not in it, and I haven't been watching yet.  I'm hoping to see a team other than Real Madrid in the final.  The big event internationally will be the competition in the Olympics in Paris in July.  I will comment more on the Olympics more generally as that event draws night. I am dearly anticipating the Olympics as a global break from political ugliness, which is what it was always meant to be. 

Tennis:  My interest in the tennis tours has a bimodal distribution (two humps).  The first was the opening of the new season and the emergence of the patterns of player performance that come in waves through the year, seen best through the Australian Open, nowadays a fair early test across the board.  The second is the summer, with the French, Wimbledon, and the US Open to climax the season. My takeaways from the early season are as follows:  1) The Aussie showed that  Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek's positions at the top of the rankings are not so secure.  2)   The herd is coming after them, a continuing flow of 18-21 year-olds on both tours armed with all-round games.  Jannik Sinner and Coco Gauff are examples, but not the only ones. 3) Titles, including Grand Slams, are going to be distributed more widely than the domination in recent years by the Big Three in men, or to the currently-reigning queen of the women's tour.  Bottom Line:  Carlos Alcaraz will need to win the US Open to take the top spot, but Djokovic will hold him off one more year.  Swiatek's consistency should keep her on top for the women though she can be outslugged. 

Football (the American kind):  I watched the Super Bowl fairly closely, though not the pregame or halftime shows. The 49ers brought a good game and had chances to win, so one has to credit the KC defense for holding them to field goals at two key moments late.  They gave Pat Mahomes the ball with a chance to win the game; it took overtime, but that is what happens. I think the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift thing is good, clean fun.

Viewed from afar, the key game was the AFC Championship between Mahomes' Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, the top-seeded team in their conference.  I didn't watch it, though. 

I credit the NCAA football poobahs for recognizing the need to expand beyond four for their playoff next time around, as they evolve randomly toward intelligence.  Twelve teams is too many, though, unless they get rid of the odious conference championships, which will not happen.  The correct number is six, or seven, if you want to push it, as the NFL successfully did this year.

 If they had six this year, they wouldn't have had the scandalous results in which undefeated conference champion Florida State was denied a bid--apparently for the irrelevant reason that their quarterback would be injured.  Of course, the Seminoles promptly abandoned ship and were destroyed in their lesser bowl game against an angry, similarly-denied Ohio State.  Oh, some SEC team won again.    

 

*Speaking of talented stringbean rookies, Victor Wembanyama.  His team (the formerly powerful San Antonio Spurs) is going nowhere this season, but one must put him on one's radar for the future.

+ 6.  I easily could have fitted several others in without showing any bias whatsoever.

 

 

Election 2024: Final Preview

Congressional Elections -  Senate:  Those who foresee a difficult year for Democrats' chances to hold onto the majority in the Senate are correct. Not quite impossible but unlikely.  This is true in most Presidential political scenarios.   

As with the Presidential election, there are only a few states where the race should be close, and those are mostly Democratic-held.  West Virginia's seat was already lost before Joe Manchin decided not to run for re-election, and that brings the prospective count to 50-50, before considering the tough, but winnable re-election races.  The other shaky Democratic Senate vote, former Democrat Krysten Sinema's Arizona one, may end up being good news, as Sinema's running third in a three-way race, with Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego now slightly favored to win it over Trumpist Kari Lake. .

Other holds may be more difficult.  Top of the list is Jon Tester in heavily Republican Montana, though he has successfully defended it in the past and will likely face an extremist. The same challenge, only in a larger, more expensive state, faces Sherrod Brown in Ohio, but he has the same strong record in statewide elections.  Tammy Baldwin has done well in the past in Wisconsin, but the state's electoral balance is narrow--she might be in danger if the Republicans nominate someone even a bit more moderate than their other senator, Ron Johnson.  Michigan's seat is now a toss-up since Debbie Stabenow decided not to run again, and it looks to be a battleground in the Presidential race, once again.  Jacky Rosen needs to defend her seat in Nevada, and that state's votes are always close. 

There are 10 or more seats on each side that seem very secure:  the likes of NY ,CA, WA, and the New England states for the Democrats; and several Midwest and South states for the Republicans.  There are several states in between--clear favorites but not slam-dunk landslides.  I'd include in that set PA, where Bob Casey should run well ahead of the Democratic Presidential nominee; a few Midwest states with strong Republican majorities but have challengers who could surprise (MO, NE, ND); Florida and Texas, which have controversial and unpopular Republican incumbents (Rick Scott and Ted Cruz) but definite Republican leans; and New Mexico and Maine, with reasonably strong Democratic tendencies and popular incumbents. 

I should mention New Jersey's Democratic Senator, Bob Menendez, who is facing a second criminal charge (along with his wife), one that looks devastatingly bad based on large chunks of presumed bribe money found in his house.  One more stress-inducer for Chris Van Hollen, the Democratic Senate campaign head.  He's certainly hoping Menendez will be successfully primaried, but it may not happen that way (dare I suggest Jersey folks have a high tolerance for corruption, especially for people of their party?), which would make the general election very risky.  If he's primaried out, it becomes a likely Democratic hold.

Incumbent Senators running for re-election do tend to win in most general elections, but Presidential landslides or very unpopular administrations can upset this.  We should not exclude that possibility, either that the Democrats hold on to their majority or even grow it if Trump fades, or that a big Republican night takes them to 53-55 seats from their current 49. 

Congressional Elections:  House - Despite the parties' efforts to make the House seats they hold as safe as possible, there are many unknowns about the House of Representatives and who may control it after 2024.   One manifestation of this is the great number of Representatives choosing not to run again, though that does not in itself indicate the winner, as they are numerous from both parties.  The majority of those seats thus opening up are deemed safe within party, but those are the type that could flip if the Presidential race tilts heavily to one side.

Meanwhile, there are a couple dozen that are held by Representatives from the party that was a minority in the last Presidential election (as projected with new Congressional boundaries).  This may prove to be an indicator of seats that will change hands; if so, this favors the Democrats to gain the (two? four? five?) seats they will need to gain on Election Day to gain control of the House. \

Redistricting--in this case, also known as gerrymandering--could play a role in how control of the House plays out, and at this point provides additional uncertainty.  The Supreme Court has given state legislatures somewhat of a free hand in rejiggering Congressional district boundaries for partisan advantage, and they are taking advantage of it, in North Carolina (to favor Republicans) and New York (to favor Democrats).  There are also a couple of states in the deep South where the courts have ruled that district boundaries must be changed to create one or two more majority-nonwhite districts.  The state legislatures are not aligned with that order, so far. As the deadlines approach, these issues will get resolved in the courts (basically, any change result will be challenged by the side perceiving disadvantage); some seats will change hands ultimately as a result, but again, that might net out to little to no advantage to either side vs. 2022. 

Congressional Control:   At this distance of 50,000 feet and 10+ months, the most likely outcome, barring the scenarios where Trump or Biden fades or drops out, is an unusual one, with control of both Houses changing, the Senate to Republicans and the House to Democrats.   

The former is a probability based on the numbers:  the Democrats have many seats at risk, and the Republicans few to none.  The Democrats will likely save many or most of them, but after losing Manchin's seat, they can afford no net loss.  

As for the House, I expect there will be strong turnout in 2024, which will tend to favor Democrats. I expect in particular a gain of five seats or so just from NY and CA.   That would be enough, but if the Democrats repeat the clear Presidential popular vote majority they had in 2020 (7 million votes), gerrymandering won't be enough to stop it, and the margin could be larger than the 222-213 result we saw in the last two Congressional elections.  

State Legislatures/Gubernatorial Races - I won't go too deep, but it's clear these electoral contests are only becoming more important in the general partisan context, particular as it relates to setting rules for Federal elections.  So more money than ever will be spent.  

A few general comments at this point:  Somewhat surprisingly, gubernatorial elections don't necessarily follow the pattern of Federal elections, especially not the Presidential outcomes.  There are plenty of blue state Republican governors, some red state Democratic ones, and swing state governors of both types.  And even independents can win statewide.  Gaps between contested governors' races vs. Presidential ones can be 10-15 percent. So those need to be viewed independently of the Presidential contest, the results of which are almost baked in for most states. 

There will be a serious effort by the Democratic party to try to take control of more state legislatures in 2024. The party's campaign committee created specifically to fund strategic races has low recognition and is chronically underfunded, but this year I think legislative races will get more assistance from above.  This will correct a glaring political strategic error the Democratic party has been committing since Obama's time. 

State races may produce an upstream effect on the Presidential race through special turnout efforts. Major voter registration efforts can make a difference.  Ballot measures are another difference-maker; Democrats will seek to have abortion and/or cannabis initiatives when possible, as those have tended to help them.  Mostly, though, these races turn on local issues like taxes, the local economic conditions and whether the government has been responsive to problems in that area, corruption and other scandals, health care and housing.

Updates/Corrections on the Previous Scenario-Based Posts - Three months have passed since the first one of those.  Apart from that, not so much changed, though I see a couple of things I must correct. 

Trump Collapse Scenario - Still looks quite possible to me.  The main thing we should look at is the "Standard Trump Trial Outcomes":  Trump's team has come up with a couple of delay tactics in the big trial, USA v. Dickhead (DC Court), and those ones may work, if the Supreme Court plays along.  The one about immunity is doomed to fail, while the 14th Amendment case occasioned by Colorado will also fail, but may take longer to decide, as the arguments are complex.  There is also a separate case being reviewed questioning whether the obstruction charge (used against very many Jan. 6 rioters) is valid to use in this case--seems also doubtful.  However, the March 4 trial date Jack Smith really wanted probably will end up back a month or two, but SCOTUS could potentially kill the whole deal. 

Also, I misread the 14th Amendment clause:  it doesn't say what is required to be applied to diqualify; the two-thirds Senate vote is actually what is required to remove the disqualification.  So what is required is very much under discussion, but I still see it only viable after conviction, though I would point out the language relates to serving in the office, not running for it!  So, it could be applied after the election, before the inauguration, if SCOTUS had the courage.  That would make Bush v. Gore a small-time decision.

Biden Weakened -  I would say the new charges against Hunter Biden hurt him but not his electoral chances.  The threat of impeachment doesn't do either; it does support the "do-nothing" argument against the House which Democrats will want to use, whether impeachment actually happens (still no effect; it would be laughed at in the Senate) or doesn't. 

The Crisis Scenario - In foreign affairs, a hell of a lot has happened in the last three months, between October 7 and Israel's response, trouble funding Ukraine's war with Russia, the border crisis driven by large crowds of migrants from all over, turmoil in control of the House and the new outrageous Christian nationalist Speaker holding the office second in succession, and so on.   I really don't see any of them having a significant effect on the Presidential or state races, except possibly some weakening for Democrats in Michigan.  In foreign policy, it would take an actual US war involvement, not a proxy one, and the Israel-Hamas War better be over well before November, or we won't be so friendly with Israel anymore.  Immigration will always be an issue, and it seems to work against Democrats at present, but claims our border has been massively overrun are made only by liars.

The real crisis is more likely to be internal.  It could still be stirred up in a serious way by extremists or foreign plants, too. One example: The 14th Amendment thing could cause major riots if Trump were successfully barred from the ballot in one or more states.

Trump Out - I foresaw the possibility of the Nikki Haley stock rising.  It looks likely to flower in New Hampshire, with a close outcome, but may wither in South Carolina and almost surely will do so on Super Tuesday.  So let's just hope for one of the other personal mishaps for him that I mentioned. 

Biden Out and Both Out (B&T) Out - Nothing has changed.  Biden made a comment which showed that the main reason he's in it is to stop Trump, so if for some reason Trump definitively leaves the race, Biden might do so, if it's feasible, and maybe if it's not.  

Status Quo Election--Part I, the Presidential Race - I don't see much of anything having changed, though that post is considerably more recent.  Polling continues to vibrate in a fairly narrow range nationwide, and there is little evidence either the public or the Biden campaign has engaged.  Subgroup tracking doesn't convince me of much of anything right now.  There is a lot of work to do, huge amounts of money will be spent to do it, and it will move few voters.  But maybe not so many need to be moved.  In this scenario Trump will provide rich and frequent evidence of his perfect lack of qualification, in a variety of venues, and most of it will not stick to him long.  

One correction:  New Hampshire does not have a Senate race in '24.  It will be close, regardless, but that might help the Republicans' chances to win that state slightly, as there will not be a Democratic Senator running for re-election down-ticket.   Again, though, that will only matter in an extremely close Electoral College outcome, essentially meaning a 50-50 split of the six larger swing states (PA, GA, AZ, NC, MI, and WI).

News of the World

Yes, Virginia, There is Climate Change - It''s hard to imagine how anyone could doubt it after this summer.  July was the hottest month in recorded history, but there is more than just the "global warming", which itself is real enough.  

I had always thought the global recognition of a changed climate would come through high winds, experienced globally, something like the Jet Stream coming down from the higher atmosphere into our level.  Like the rising temperature, the high winds are a natural expression of increased energy released into our closed ecosystem from carbon sequestered from the remains of living things hundreds of million years ago.  We see that uncontrollable wildfires are occurring in many parts of the world, the combination of weather conditions and troubled natural vegetation.  These should be expected to continue, releasing even more carbon into the atmosphere.  

From Baseball - TV broadcasters have an annoying habit of referring to players/teams as being the best (or worst) "in baseball", when they mean in our Major Leagues.  As if there were no other games being played worthy of the name "baseball".  Anyway: 

Big Reds - There is a revival of fortunes this year for my team, the Cincinnati Reds.  They are currently slumping due to a severely-weakened starting rotation, so not quite as hot as a few weeks ago, when they battled for the Division lead.  It is time to be realistic:  they passed on trading any of their rising infield prospects and arriving stars for more pitching, and we are seeing the result.  They have time to rectify their rotation for 2024 and make a real run for it.  In the meantime, my prediction was for third place, and I'm OK with that this year.  If they do make the playoffs, probably as a Wild Card, I don't expect much at all. 

Still Astros-Braves:  They are the best teams in their leagues.  Of course, anything can happen in short baseball series.  The dangerous Dodgers are getting their star pitchers back, and the Padres, Brewers, and the AL's Angels all have enough to make surprise runs. The Cubs have caught the Reds and have similar prospects, short and long. There should be some AL East team opposing the Astros in the ALCS, though Texas, who has given Houston a run for it, could make things interesting in the AL semis (for the Orioles--the team I always fail to consider--or Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, etc.)  As always, I warn to watch out for the team that gets in as the final (third) Wild Card--it will have just survived a tense competition and will be in peak form. Meanwhile, the top two teams in each league will face the challenge of using a week off to prepare rather than lose their edge.  Those are pretty much set with the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and either Texas or Houston. 

Meanwhile, we must all pause and consider the greatness of Shohei "Unicorn" Ohtani and his 2023 season.  The question arises if there has ever been any season that rises to his performance, as there is no doubt there has never been one like his, for its combination of hitting and pitching. 

Bottom line on the rules changes:  the game absorbed them fairly well.  The near-shift replaced the shift, and the game moves faster, with more baserunning and fielding involved.  The lure of hitting to the opposite field remains. 

Hero Departures

Sinead O'Connor - (July 26) Check out her voice on The Edge's recording of "Heroine" (correct spelling) for the soundtrack of "Captive" (some creepy movie that seems was never released). She could wail with the best of them.  And she had things to wail aboot. 

Lowell Weicker - (June 28) If I'm not mistaken, he was the last person running as Republican that I voted for, in 1976 (a blowout win for him).  Who needs to be reminded of his heroic performance demanding the truth from Nixon's henchmen in the Ervin Senate Committee? His career as a Republican Senator and an Independent governor of Connecticut is a great example of how a true nonpartisan should behave, but where did he come from? The answer is, he was a classic rich Republican, an heir to a fortune like Jay Rockefeller (who was a Democratic Senator from West Virginia, repeatedly re-elected.  Imagine that.)

Robbie Robertson (August 9) -- The lead guitarist and songwriter for The Band, which was Bob Dylan's group for a critical period in the late '60's and early '70's.  He went on to a successful solo career and did soundtracks for Scorsese movies.  His is an interesting heritage story involving native Americans and Jews and Canadians.  But he practically invented Americana!  A good lesson that America is more than just the US. 

Paul Reubens (July 30) - Hard to say what I feel about Pee-Wee.  Personally, I couldn't stand watching his show, though it was very popular in certain circles for being campy. He seemed to be very aware, very sensitive, even kind, but he had to do time for sex crimes.  

John "Bud" Wilson (April 9) - I didn't know him, but he was famous, beloved.  He had a spectacular career as a physician and surgeon, and then afterwards built a legacy from his land conservation efforts in the Lama area (north of Taos, in the mountains).  

Milan Kundera (July 11) - I hadn't heard much from him for decades, but The Unbearable Lightness of Being  remains a touchstone novel for latter-day existentialist thought.  Written when his Czechoslovakia was behind the Iron Curtain, it helped us on this side of the Wall to understand how life was, and was not, different over there then. 

Tony Bennett (July 20) - Like Reubens, I wouldn't say he was a hero of mine, but he was one for many.  His jazzy versions of easy listening classics were one thing, but his public behavior and steadfast stance for justice, equality, and chill made him easily enviable.  

Cormac McCarthy (June 13) - He had an uncompromising vision of doom and gloom in the post-modern West.  I would say he had a good understanding of how the land could be "No Country for Old Men", but he rubbed our face in it, over and over.  I loved "All the Pretty Horses", before his method began to wear on me.  Still, deserves maximum respect for his honesty.   

The War - Unlike all the phony crises in this tweener kind of year, Russian premier Putin has decided that we must continue to have a real one, spreading death and destruction widely.  All efforts to contain it are subject to be overcome by both sides' desire to strike in new ways at their enemy, creating escalation without direction.  Efforts to bring the butchery to an end are suspended until Ukraine can make enough progress to regain its sovereign territory, which has so far in this counteroffensive been slow or non-existent. 

Today we receive word that Valery Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, who has both served and irritated Putin, was believed to be on a plane that crashed in Russia.  How and why it crashed is something we are not likely to know, but that his days were numbered was an easy prediction.  Which I made not long ago--his departure seems to have been accomplished sooner than I expected. 

The 2024 Election-- I have enjoyed some respite from the continuous political wars--ignoring the dozens of emails daily requesting money for next year's battles.  Alas, it seems we can avoid the looming struggle no more.  I will be blogging on politics tonight as the GOP debate kicks off the unavoidable. 

    

But Is It Appropriate?

It Was Balloon!

 I read recently the theory that US foreign affairs are entirely determined by domestic politics.  In which case our direction in an increasingly-critical global environment will certainly be directionless.  

It is clear that in the last decade foreign policy doesn't even rise into consideration of voters.  We did violate the titular command in the trendy 2019 movie "Don't Look Up" recently and saw, once again, that we are not alone on this planet, but that was a passing fancy, lost in the absurdity of our own navels.  But I will address the arraignment later on. 

Instead I want to dwell a bit on the stirrings abroad, and what I perceive we are actually doing in the world.  

America is performing a new role on the world stage, still a featured role but no longer a star turn. It's not all about what we want or do; major events arise and resolve elsewhere, and we can engage or watch from backstage.  You know we will be watching. 

China wanted to be watching, too.  They wanted a little-better resolution on that telemetry they were getting sent back from their satellites.  Can you really blame them for sending that innocent balloon?  Yes, they were sending back data the whole time.  Yes, we were recording the data they were sending back for de-cryption efforts.   Spy vs. Spy, remember that one (Mad Magazine)? 

China's leadership have read their history books with the US policy of "containment" (of the Soviet Union), and they have announced they will not settle for it.  Not unreasonably, they insist on the opportunity to compete in Africa, in South America, and they will make a move on Mexico before long.  We should applaud their efforts in ending the warring between Saudi Arabia and Iran. We must allow their competition, unfair as their terms may seem. 

China longs for the broad but lax regulation of the early WTO, as that was a business environment they could exploit.  Things are different now, after the pandemic sliced through the CCP's omnipotence facade:  once at the beginning, and once in the chaotic release of the lockdowns.  The party is going to yield to jingoism if we block the trade aggressiveness that is coming. 

We must insist on change, though, if we are truly to be more friendly.  Xinjiang's penal colonies, for one.  Tibet, for two. Hong Kong, for three.  And we are not yet talking about the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or Taiwan.  Those are matters for discussion, even if now is not the time.  But we cannot buy any more products from the captive states, and we will provide funds to protect the rights of Hong Kong citizens in some ways that are beyond the eyes of the PRC.  We make the commercial terms right for Taiwan to get all that it needs. We can guide that the long-term goal for Greater China is not annexation, or subjugation, or even assimilation and integration, but federation. 

None of this suggests anything other than wary re-armament occurring in the Far Pacific.  United, the challenge is readily met, but includes broad modernization and acts to increase readiness.  Defensive readiness, which today is most expressed as accurate and deadly response capabilities.  

And so we will. 

There is one constant in American foreign policy, and it is that the commercial interests we have will be defended, just as we will act on behalf of our citizens who are endangered abroad.  It is and always has been America First, in actuality if not in slogan-mongering.  So, what's the big deal? 

Biden's policies are a big (f-ing) one:  1) We will reassure our allies after the chaos of the Trump administration's policies; 2) We will keep the pressure on China, and on North Korea, without inviting conflict; and 3) We will defeat Putin, to spite Trump if nothing else.  We will bleed him dry. 

So, yeah, maybe that one is determined by domestic politics.  And the first one, too. 

Fraud

To be sure, misrepresentation is a big problem in our lives, something that affects the quality of our existence daily, through inconvenience if not worse. Adults are constantly bombarded with falsehood, with cheap tricks to make money off them, and promises that will never be believed, or fulfilled.  We are numbed to these, but younger people are not.  

How can we protect ourselves from entities which seek to take advantage of us?  I suggest we legislate a requirement that content generated purely from automatic engines identify itself as such, even if subtly so (think: those fast-speaking disclaimers on the radio or tv).  Violation of the law would be a misdemeanor with the penalty paid by its sponsor:  "Impersonating a human". When a human reviews, edits, and authenticates themself on their own behalf or their entity, then this disclaimer falls off, and it becomes that person's owned product.  It's a small requirement, though it may seem an impossible impediment. If we could get that, perhaps we could reinstate something like the Truth-in-Advertising standards that once existed.  And then apply them to political campaigns. 

 The arraignment of Donald Trump in New York was a necessary first step, and nothing could be more appropriate than that the first charge against the ex-President was for fraud.  He has perpetrated frauds throughout his career, and finally there was a DA ready to call him on it, criminally.  

I imagine the Old Drumpfster with his finger, or something, in the dyke,* trying to hold back the flood, all by himself.   He can't admit to anything on this old charge, now, though he might cop to the misdemeanor version once he has more serious, more dramatic charges to deal with.

Michele's Mistakes 

A fairly big story here in the state of New Mexico is a spate of vetoes of bills passed by the (Democratic-controlled) legislature by Democratic Governor Michele Lujan Grisham.  These have been executed almost completely without comment from the Governor. 

There are a variety of things she is cutting from their budgets and appropriations.  A lot of it is in the category of tax expenditure.  One that bites particularly sharply is a proposed credit (of $2500) for new electric vehicle purchase.  It looks like a sellout; MLG has been re-elected recently and is term-limited.  Very disappointing:  I was giving her credit for the legalization of marijuana (now called "cannabis"); perhaps that was also merely an economic ploy, one called "getting the Texans' money, so it's not just for Colorado". 

Did I mention that the state government is rolling in money?  Never mind, I'm sure it's a temporary condition. 

*Maybe his putter?