The place is living up to its billing in two particular regards: endless variety of colorful birds, pretty much everywhere (even inhabited zones), and more green than can be seen. This looks like the place to rack up numbers of birds sighted, breaking a sweat but barely having to turn one's head.
Also, the traffic in San Jose (do you know the way?) is just as bad as promised.
When it's hot here, it's hot like nowhere I've been (OK, maybe like India when it's hot there). It isn't always, though, which gives hope.
My advice is to plan for a recovery day in a decent hotel with A/C and TV after about every 2-4 days in the rustic eco-cabins. One has to do laundry about that often, anyway.
As far as traveling around in the country, the better way hasn't yet emerged. Perhaps one of those services where you pay a monthly fee, then pick up a car or SUV when you need one. That way you aren't stuck waiting for buses to pick you up, driving whenyou don't want to, or taking dangerous dinky planes or unseaworthy boats.
Monday, March 23, 2009
A Few Sports Notes
NCAA:
Not getting to watch much from down here in Costa Rica (see the post which will follow this, or precede this if you're reading down the page). I am very interested in this year's tourney, primarily because of Louisville, which seems to have peaked at the right time. If we can just get UNC out of there, it should be a wide-open Final 8.
The fact that everything is following form so far is no issue; it just means there's a bit bigger gap between the top 10-15 teams and the rest this year. Previous years, with all the hurrah over bracket busting, it was because there were lots of teams about equal in positions 9-32 (roughly).
NBA
I'm hoping for something other than a Celtics-Lakers rematch (we've had enough of those for one lifetime). I think that means I'll be rooting for the Spurs and/or Cavs, though I'm not too enthusiastic about those teams, either. Clearly, though, I'll be rooting for the not-Lakers in the Western Conference finals, and in the finals should the n-L's win.
WBC
That's World Baseball Classic, for those not following (who apparently number in the billions). Japan-Korea final seems totally appropriate, as they are the countries who have best mobilized their talent (and which have enough to mobilize); Venezuela clearly was next best at that task. I guess I'm rooting for the upstart Koreans to upend the defending champs.
Soccer
Chelsea blew what appears to have been its last chance to get into the Premier League race down the stretch. Now, the matchup with nemesis Liverpool in the Champions League makes me gloomy and thinking that the FA Cup is their best chance to win something this year. I hope I'm proven wrong, but it will probably mean scoring at Anfield, something they have no track record of doing.
Bring back The Chosen One! Or, if not him, Claudio Ranieri!
Not getting to watch much from down here in Costa Rica (see the post which will follow this, or precede this if you're reading down the page). I am very interested in this year's tourney, primarily because of Louisville, which seems to have peaked at the right time. If we can just get UNC out of there, it should be a wide-open Final 8.
The fact that everything is following form so far is no issue; it just means there's a bit bigger gap between the top 10-15 teams and the rest this year. Previous years, with all the hurrah over bracket busting, it was because there were lots of teams about equal in positions 9-32 (roughly).
NBA
I'm hoping for something other than a Celtics-Lakers rematch (we've had enough of those for one lifetime). I think that means I'll be rooting for the Spurs and/or Cavs, though I'm not too enthusiastic about those teams, either. Clearly, though, I'll be rooting for the not-Lakers in the Western Conference finals, and in the finals should the n-L's win.
WBC
That's World Baseball Classic, for those not following (who apparently number in the billions). Japan-Korea final seems totally appropriate, as they are the countries who have best mobilized their talent (and which have enough to mobilize); Venezuela clearly was next best at that task. I guess I'm rooting for the upstart Koreans to upend the defending champs.
Soccer
Chelsea blew what appears to have been its last chance to get into the Premier League race down the stretch. Now, the matchup with nemesis Liverpool in the Champions League makes me gloomy and thinking that the FA Cup is their best chance to win something this year. I hope I'm proven wrong, but it will probably mean scoring at Anfield, something they have no track record of doing.
Bring back The Chosen One! Or, if not him, Claudio Ranieri!
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Obama 1st 6-weeks' period Grade: B
Prologue
The grade I'd give a US President isn't fixed over time.
A good example is actually the first Bush Administration: six months in I gave him a D, which I thought to be a well-established and potentially stable mark. The policies were dumb and wrong-headed, but at least he hadn't gotten us into a war yet.
His grade probably would've peaked at a C- about nine months later, after he recovered from the jolt on September 11 with the relatively successful war by proxy in Afghanistan and before his folks' ambitions for aggression in Iraq were nakedly revealed. It's an F, of course, from then on, until such point as we kick him out of the classroom when it becomes apparent the Iraq whole thing was planned to be a stage-managed photo op to make him look good in his re-election campaign.
Botched, like everything else, Bushite Misrule showed that two negatives--bad policies, badly executed--don't make a positive. Just chaos.
Still, Obama represents such a pivot toward the light that the range of grades I'd consider would only go from A+ to C. I think a solid B is tough but fair, as I'll explain over the three critical dimensions: economic, diplomatic, and political.
The grade I'd give a US President isn't fixed over time.
A good example is actually the first Bush Administration: six months in I gave him a D, which I thought to be a well-established and potentially stable mark. The policies were dumb and wrong-headed, but at least he hadn't gotten us into a war yet.
His grade probably would've peaked at a C- about nine months later, after he recovered from the jolt on September 11 with the relatively successful war by proxy in Afghanistan and before his folks' ambitions for aggression in Iraq were nakedly revealed. It's an F, of course, from then on, until such point as we kick him out of the classroom when it becomes apparent the Iraq whole thing was planned to be a stage-managed photo op to make him look good in his re-election campaign.
Botched, like everything else, Bushite Misrule showed that two negatives--bad policies, badly executed--don't make a positive. Just chaos.
Still, Obama represents such a pivot toward the light that the range of grades I'd consider would only go from A+ to C. I think a solid B is tough but fair, as I'll explain over the three critical dimensions: economic, diplomatic, and political.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Obama 1st 6-weeks' period Grade: B
Part I
It's stupid, the economy.
I continue to be amazed that nobody is connecting the dots on the purchases of toxic assets and figuring out where the bottom is--we're headed straight for it at ninety miles an hour.
I believe that our National Buggy has passed the inflection point: the angle of descent into the Great Crater has passed its maximum. Soon we will be on the long, gentle slope that leads into the depressed plain, and drag will cause our velocity to slow down--the real-life economic manifestation of this physical analogy will be a reduction in volatility of markets, and this will signal an end to the hysterical tone, which is the all-important first step towards regaining our balance. Right now we're just riding in the cart, taking the bumps which are coming at us too fast to dodge.
The sad flatline zone of the plain at the bottom of the Crater has to be traversed, and it ideally should be crossed directly opposite to the orientation we came down upon. If we try shortcuts off to the side, we will run up partway and slide or roll back down--this is what happened in the '30's. I will grade performance by how well Obama finds the right answers from the outset and sticks to them, not how well he improvises when he goes astray.
Obama described the path he wants to take across, which means the path out of here, as being based upon initiatives in energy, health care, and education which will transform the core of the country's economy. Are they the right ones? I'd say yes. Course corrections will be required, no doubt, but we've got the right azimuth, in general terms.
Beyond that, I don't know what anyone can expect. One thing we don't know is how far across the moonscape-like plain it will be. I say that, then rashly predict: I think the timing will be such that a nascent recovery will not be evident by the 2010 midterm elections, even with the course being maintained properly.
This will translate into a tough, but not impossible, fight to hold onto the safe margins the Democrats enjoy in both Houses of Congress. I would say the midpoint of expectations would be the loss of 20-30 seats by the Democrats in the House, which will keep them in the majority, but less securely. I think the Senate will stay more or less the same in 2010, regardless, and thus Obama will retain a Congress sufficiently compliant to complete his first-term program.
The rest, as they say, will become history.
It's stupid, the economy.
I continue to be amazed that nobody is connecting the dots on the purchases of toxic assets and figuring out where the bottom is--we're headed straight for it at ninety miles an hour.
I believe that our National Buggy has passed the inflection point: the angle of descent into the Great Crater has passed its maximum. Soon we will be on the long, gentle slope that leads into the depressed plain, and drag will cause our velocity to slow down--the real-life economic manifestation of this physical analogy will be a reduction in volatility of markets, and this will signal an end to the hysterical tone, which is the all-important first step towards regaining our balance. Right now we're just riding in the cart, taking the bumps which are coming at us too fast to dodge.
The sad flatline zone of the plain at the bottom of the Crater has to be traversed, and it ideally should be crossed directly opposite to the orientation we came down upon. If we try shortcuts off to the side, we will run up partway and slide or roll back down--this is what happened in the '30's. I will grade performance by how well Obama finds the right answers from the outset and sticks to them, not how well he improvises when he goes astray.
Obama described the path he wants to take across, which means the path out of here, as being based upon initiatives in energy, health care, and education which will transform the core of the country's economy. Are they the right ones? I'd say yes. Course corrections will be required, no doubt, but we've got the right azimuth, in general terms.
Beyond that, I don't know what anyone can expect. One thing we don't know is how far across the moonscape-like plain it will be. I say that, then rashly predict: I think the timing will be such that a nascent recovery will not be evident by the 2010 midterm elections, even with the course being maintained properly.
This will translate into a tough, but not impossible, fight to hold onto the safe margins the Democrats enjoy in both Houses of Congress. I would say the midpoint of expectations would be the loss of 20-30 seats by the Democrats in the House, which will keep them in the majority, but less securely. I think the Senate will stay more or less the same in 2010, regardless, and thus Obama will retain a Congress sufficiently compliant to complete his first-term program.
The rest, as they say, will become history.
Obama 1st 6-weeks' period Grade: B
Part II
Foreign policy is central to my grading of the performance of a Presidency of the US. It includes military policy (just ask Clausewitz), which is equally vital and equally controllable from the White House. In this regard F.P. is unlike economic policy (the outcome of which is normally not controllable, just as we are seeing) or, say, sports boosterism (a traditional Presidential activity, of little importance--I saw Daddy O caught the Bulls when they came to visit in DC the other day).
Obama, Hillary, and the key envoys Mitchell and Holbrooke have yet to make a big mark diplomatically of any kind. But it's only been 40 days!
I see vision behind the mundane diplomatic developments viewed so far.
The biggest news was Susan Rice's statement at the U.N. that the U.S. was not going to put up with failed states taking out their sickness on their citizens any more, but that we are going to take this up in the U.N. itself. This suggests a major Charter revision, and I hail that intention.
I believe that the Obama Administration has correctly identified Russia as the key dance partner in these early months' diplomacy. The Kremlin has so much leverage toward our success with Iran, with China, North Korea, Pakistan.
As an example, the US needs a redundantly-secure supply line toward its theater in South Asia (the existing primary one being through Kuwait), in other words a second safe staging area near the region, and I don't think Turkey is going to provide it in the short run. It won't run through Russia's sacred soil itself, but it will cross their sphere of influence at some point or it won't exist. Meaning, they will have to tolerate any new basing we develop as we leave Iraq. That needs to get worked out.
I even see some relevance to the urgently rising problem in Eastern Europe. The Eastern European nations have made the mistake of looking entirely to the near neighbors to the West, which have scorned them in their hour of crisis. I wouldn't mistake Russia for a benign financial influence, but an American initiative which fortifies the financial system for both Russia and the Eastern European nations, including basket cases like the Ukraine, will promote the general global welfare and lower tensions.
In the US' Second Front of diplomacy, the Middle East, Mitchell and Co. have no choice but to wait for the Israeli dust to settle--both from the Gaza incursion and the parliamentary elections. So they correctly build up relationships with all parties.
One hopes that includes the Israeli Arabs, the key group required for a successful peaceful resolution in Palestine; I believe their voice may, one day soon, become the means for the extra-Israeli Palestinians to develop consensus policies. If and when Netanyahu gets the P.M. job and then fails to make progress, there may be an opportunity for a Center-Left government of Kadima/Labor/Arabs-plus a few to create a major diplomatic opening. Of course we have to let the Israelis reach this in their own time.
WOT is Dis?
I think so far the Obama formulation of War On Terror is to make it regional rather than global. Well, it least it's not GWOT no more! That's progress, but only of a certain kind.
I think the withdrawal targets in Iraq are fine, if Iraq validates the SOFA worked out in the latter days of Bushite Misrule. If things are cool over there with our planned rate of departure, we should be on the low side of estimates all the way and not sweat it too much. If they don't tolerate our withdrawal plan, there's going to be a sense of impending doom over the whole process which will no doubt be self-fulfilling. As for timing and numbers, I don't mind the extra three months, but I think Obama does owe an explanation of how the 5000 or so he campaigned upon became 35,000 or so.
As for Afghanistan/Pakistan, though, the critics are right: we need to see the other side of the buildup curve, and it needs to be a promise to the American people. Maybe the buildup--over 24 months, to 50,000 in both countries (half in active combat roles, half in training roles)--followed by a dotted line of indeterminate width (6-24 months) depending on how long it takes to get OBL&Co. onto the run again, then a promised reduction curve of appropriate steepness (roughly crossing the 2009 starting level at Election Day 2012), with a long, low tail of 5000 or so--not 35,000--and their primary role being to protect an international corps of aid engineers.
Foreign policy is central to my grading of the performance of a Presidency of the US. It includes military policy (just ask Clausewitz), which is equally vital and equally controllable from the White House. In this regard F.P. is unlike economic policy (the outcome of which is normally not controllable, just as we are seeing) or, say, sports boosterism (a traditional Presidential activity, of little importance--I saw Daddy O caught the Bulls when they came to visit in DC the other day).
Obama, Hillary, and the key envoys Mitchell and Holbrooke have yet to make a big mark diplomatically of any kind. But it's only been 40 days!
I see vision behind the mundane diplomatic developments viewed so far.
The biggest news was Susan Rice's statement at the U.N. that the U.S. was not going to put up with failed states taking out their sickness on their citizens any more, but that we are going to take this up in the U.N. itself. This suggests a major Charter revision, and I hail that intention.
I believe that the Obama Administration has correctly identified Russia as the key dance partner in these early months' diplomacy. The Kremlin has so much leverage toward our success with Iran, with China, North Korea, Pakistan.
As an example, the US needs a redundantly-secure supply line toward its theater in South Asia (the existing primary one being through Kuwait), in other words a second safe staging area near the region, and I don't think Turkey is going to provide it in the short run. It won't run through Russia's sacred soil itself, but it will cross their sphere of influence at some point or it won't exist. Meaning, they will have to tolerate any new basing we develop as we leave Iraq. That needs to get worked out.
I even see some relevance to the urgently rising problem in Eastern Europe. The Eastern European nations have made the mistake of looking entirely to the near neighbors to the West, which have scorned them in their hour of crisis. I wouldn't mistake Russia for a benign financial influence, but an American initiative which fortifies the financial system for both Russia and the Eastern European nations, including basket cases like the Ukraine, will promote the general global welfare and lower tensions.
In the US' Second Front of diplomacy, the Middle East, Mitchell and Co. have no choice but to wait for the Israeli dust to settle--both from the Gaza incursion and the parliamentary elections. So they correctly build up relationships with all parties.
One hopes that includes the Israeli Arabs, the key group required for a successful peaceful resolution in Palestine; I believe their voice may, one day soon, become the means for the extra-Israeli Palestinians to develop consensus policies. If and when Netanyahu gets the P.M. job and then fails to make progress, there may be an opportunity for a Center-Left government of Kadima/Labor/Arabs-plus a few to create a major diplomatic opening. Of course we have to let the Israelis reach this in their own time.
WOT is Dis?
I think so far the Obama formulation of War On Terror is to make it regional rather than global. Well, it least it's not GWOT no more! That's progress, but only of a certain kind.
I think the withdrawal targets in Iraq are fine, if Iraq validates the SOFA worked out in the latter days of Bushite Misrule. If things are cool over there with our planned rate of departure, we should be on the low side of estimates all the way and not sweat it too much. If they don't tolerate our withdrawal plan, there's going to be a sense of impending doom over the whole process which will no doubt be self-fulfilling. As for timing and numbers, I don't mind the extra three months, but I think Obama does owe an explanation of how the 5000 or so he campaigned upon became 35,000 or so.
As for Afghanistan/Pakistan, though, the critics are right: we need to see the other side of the buildup curve, and it needs to be a promise to the American people. Maybe the buildup--over 24 months, to 50,000 in both countries (half in active combat roles, half in training roles)--followed by a dotted line of indeterminate width (6-24 months) depending on how long it takes to get OBL&Co. onto the run again, then a promised reduction curve of appropriate steepness (roughly crossing the 2009 starting level at Election Day 2012), with a long, low tail of 5000 or so--not 35,000--and their primary role being to protect an international corps of aid engineers.
Obama 1st 6-weeks' period Grade: B
Part III
The Republicans are losing the political war, even if they're winning a couple of battles. A good example is this "omnibus spending bill larded with earmarks", which it is. It is also going to pass, and Obama is going to sign it. All of which infuriates John McCain, who was thinking specifically of this bill when he made all his threats about "You will know their names!" in the campaign.
McCain fulminated ineffectively in favor of his amendment to cut local earmarks:
Actually, I can probably justify most of that without even reading the specifics to which he referred: "pig odor research" would be a study dealing with the huge problem of handling the massive volume of excretions pig farming produces, and I guess they're thinking of a chemical treatment to neutralize it or make it useful; "astronomy in Hawaii" is a good way to save money vs. launching a new Hubble Space Telescope, worthy as that kind of initiative will be in a few years (when we've got a new manned launching platform worked out); accidentally-imported termites are creating nearly infinitely-large colonies causing a sci-fi-type national defense issue (with an ideal breeding ground in the abandoned districts of N'awlins); and, I'll let my entomologist sister argue this better some other time, but intelligent use of "natural" cross-breeding informed by superb knowledge of grape vine DNA sounds like a great way to build up resistance to mold and other pests, not to mention major potential gains in productivity, and thus, jobs in upstate New York.
So, yeah, I'd vote for those.
Your Mission, Barack, is to Atomize Them, Not Us
The Republicans seemed embarked on a no-win strategy with their opposition to stimulus spending: if Obama succeeds, they become history's dust; if he doesn't, we're all dead anyway.
They passed up an opportunity to come inside the tent, which is really the only way to have any influence over what happens in there. The three Senators who crossed over are the only Republicans who did their careers any good.
I would like to see a quicker descent for the budget deficits in the outer projected years (2013-2015) of the Obama Administration's new proposal. If this stuff is working, we should be back to budget deficits in the $200-400 billion range, or better. I don't doubt that it's a good idea to under-promise and over-deliver, but the quality represented in the proposed budget's out years isn't high enough to gain acceptability from anyone. It will get changed in the negotiations, and Obama will live with the revised targets.
The Republicans are losing the political war, even if they're winning a couple of battles. A good example is this "omnibus spending bill larded with earmarks", which it is. It is also going to pass, and Obama is going to sign it. All of which infuriates John McCain, who was thinking specifically of this bill when he made all his threats about "You will know their names!" in the campaign.
McCain fulminated ineffectively in favor of his amendment to cut local earmarks:
"How does anyone justify some of these earmarks: $1.7 million for pig odor research in Iowa; $2 million 'for the promotion of astronomy' in Hawaii; $6.6 million for termite research in New Orleans; $2.1 million for the Center for Grape Genetics in New York," he said.
Actually, I can probably justify most of that without even reading the specifics to which he referred: "pig odor research" would be a study dealing with the huge problem of handling the massive volume of excretions pig farming produces, and I guess they're thinking of a chemical treatment to neutralize it or make it useful; "astronomy in Hawaii" is a good way to save money vs. launching a new Hubble Space Telescope, worthy as that kind of initiative will be in a few years (when we've got a new manned launching platform worked out); accidentally-imported termites are creating nearly infinitely-large colonies causing a sci-fi-type national defense issue (with an ideal breeding ground in the abandoned districts of N'awlins); and, I'll let my entomologist sister argue this better some other time, but intelligent use of "natural" cross-breeding informed by superb knowledge of grape vine DNA sounds like a great way to build up resistance to mold and other pests, not to mention major potential gains in productivity, and thus, jobs in upstate New York.
So, yeah, I'd vote for those.
Your Mission, Barack, is to Atomize Them, Not Us
The Republicans seemed embarked on a no-win strategy with their opposition to stimulus spending: if Obama succeeds, they become history's dust; if he doesn't, we're all dead anyway.
They passed up an opportunity to come inside the tent, which is really the only way to have any influence over what happens in there. The three Senators who crossed over are the only Republicans who did their careers any good.
I would like to see a quicker descent for the budget deficits in the outer projected years (2013-2015) of the Obama Administration's new proposal. If this stuff is working, we should be back to budget deficits in the $200-400 billion range, or better. I don't doubt that it's a good idea to under-promise and over-deliver, but the quality represented in the proposed budget's out years isn't high enough to gain acceptability from anyone. It will get changed in the negotiations, and Obama will live with the revised targets.
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