If We're the Front-Runner...

...why doesn't it feel like we're winning?

This week's primaries in Washington ("beauty" only), Wisconsin, and Hawaii should all go to Obama. Wisconsin's getting the attention because it's close, but the other two will be more significant. A large Obama win in Hawaii should help pad his lead (to about 100 delegates, by most counts), and the narrow outcome likely in Wisconsin will really only matter to those counting state victories or imagining that there is some kind of momentum shift going on.

There is no momentum--this race has basically been a tie for a month or more. Obama's recent win streak is just playing out his advantages in these states--advantages which were apparent to all. He does have a small edge in delegates, but after this week things get tougher.

Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania--those are the big states left (though there are a couple of medium-sized ones worth mentioning, like North Carolina and Kentucky). The conventional wisdom is that Hillary needs to win all three to get the nomination, but that she would indeed get it if she did so. The argument is not that she would make up the ground in pledged delegates by winning them, but that she would then be able to claim wins in all the big states (basically true, except for Obama's Illinois) and that would bring enough superdelegates around to her in the end to win.

The part I don't like about this is that Obama--now that he's the "frontrunner"--is being set up for being taken down a notch. This is the game the media have been playing all along--build them up, so you can cut them down. Ohio and Texas each show something like a 15-point margin for Hillary today (Pennsylvania is closer). If the only way a candidate can win his nomination is by making up huge deficits, that doesn't sound like much of a front-runner.

The Huckabee Factor

Conspiracy theorists should like this one (sounds like a thriller title, no?) The hypothesis is that McCain's campaign people should actually like the fact that Huck, who's really no threat to defeat McCain and win the nomination, is staying in the race. Here's why:

Think of a population of 10% or so of the general election voters who we can call "Potential McCain Voters" (or PMV's). These people are mostly independents, and the hypothesis (which actually seems quite likely) is that their second choice would be Barack Obama. In an open primary (which is the case in both Ohio and Texas), they can go either way.

Now look at the Texas poll results released last week showing McCain leading only 45-41 over Huckleberry. If you were a PMV, and you were thinking you'd go ahead and vote for Obama because the Republican race were over, that might give you cause to re-think and show up for Johnny Mac on March 4. This could cut something out of Obama's vote and tend to give the edge in the Texas Democratic vote to Hillary. Which is what McCain & Co. want. Q.E.D.

The same argument does not apply as well in Ohio, where McCain has a seemingly safe 50-33 lead over Huckabee in the most recent polling. Here one would expect PMV's to consider voting for Obama as the surest way to stop Hillary.

Ohio or Texas?

This must be the question vexing the Obama campaign leadership at this time. I don't think it's the same for the HRC campaign, where it's got to be both.

These two states pose very different problems for Obama. Ohio is, of course, a key swing state, with a very strong tradition for electing moderates in its statewide elections. The Democrats are ascendant for now, with a moderate Democratic governor (Clinton-supporting) and the suburban blue-collar vote predominates.

When you think of "prominent Texas Democrat" you think of...nobody who's alive today. It's unclear what kind of character, if any, the state's party presents. I would say that Obama should win the two largest cities, Houston and Dallas, fairly handily, while Clinton should win most of the 200 or so other counties (I don't exaggerate). To me, the swing areas that could determine the outcome are the heavily Hispanic cities of San Antonio and El Paso. Again, based on prior voting patterns from other states, an uphill battle. And then there's that Huckabee Factor.

In the debates leading up to these primaries, then, Obama needs to come across as a credible centrist challenger to Clinton, avoiding being categorized as a left-winger. He needs to put his vaunted ground game into play to counteract party machine forces going against him in both states. He has the money to buy TV in both. He should make a late decision to focus on one or the other, based on any late trends presenting an opportunity. I'd look particularly to see if Huckabee's support in Texas falls as news seeps in that he, in fact, has no chance and no business staying in the race--if so, plunge there.