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Monday, December 08, 2008

Traps: Maximalism and Underperformance

I understand the frustration of progressives as they see moderate after centrist trotted out. Where is our bone? they cry plaintively--if indeed they are willing to settle for bones. Some are so bold as to think they can set President-elect Obama's priorities for the first 100 days or first 10 days or whatever.

They can "set" the controls, as long as they set them to the desired specifications: focus like a laser on the economy while the foreign policy team gets rapidly up to speed.



Reach out to most every country with meetings at appropriate levels. Meet first with closest allies, and set up Presidential face time by mid-year for the most important ones with which we are less closely allied (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq (when they're ready), India, China, and--I'd argue they belong in this category, though they are allied with us--Turkey). With Russia, a more subtle approach aimed at defusing tensions on NATO expansion, missile defense, and Russia's energy bullying of Europe, with the payoff being active cooperation on Iran.

The grand strategy should be to bring all nations out of "failing state" status. This is a progressive objective of the first order. First term, Obama should focus on Asia; in the second term, Latin America and Africa. "Security, Health, and Livelihood" should be the objectives of a program to get the one billion or so people in nations on the edge away from the abyss.

Thursday, December 04, 2008

HOF: From the Yahoo! Bballgroup

Re: Hall of Fame Ballot/vets

"A little bit soft" is understating it: apart from Rickey (the
exclusion that proves the rule, as we now see the wisdom of his last,
barnstormin' days) this is a cast of newcomers for which I can find no
one even to make a case.

The secondary drama of the balloting (Rickey first year? Yes We Can!)
will be Jim Rice's last-ditch effort to make it, having come so close.
I bet yes, but withhold my endorsement of it.

Bert By 'Eleven? Stay tuned. Maybe next year he could be the Jim
Rice of '10. Which might be one year early for the slogan, but
otherwise OK by me.

My ardor for some of the other returning heroes has cooled. I am
tempted by Tim Raines in this year in which stealing bases gets a
little respect. Perhaps Henderson's first-year landslide will edge
the Grey Ink regression slightly in Raines' favor next year.

From the active ballot, I vote for Henderson, Blyleven, Raines and Lee
Smith.

I'm one who doesn't feel Trevor Hoffman's numbers diminish Smith's
candidacy, though all are mere prologue to the thunderous election a
few years hence of Mariano Rivera, the Rickey Henderson of Saves.

I'll fill out my ballot with Veterans: Dick Allen, Luis Tiant, Joe
Torre (pre-emptive induction as player), Maury Wills (in the Year of
Rickey), Jim "Mudd" Kaat, and, a personal favorite--Bucky Walters.



As a minor public service,

Here's the info on the Veterans Committee, from Baseball reference:

Veteran's Committee Results Announced Dec. 8
Post-1943 Ballot: All are on the ballot as players:

* Dick Allen, 1B-3B, RoY, 1972 MVP, 7 A-S, 351 HR, .292 BA, 156 OPS+
* Gil Hodges, 1B, 8 A-S, 3 GG, 370 HR, .273 BA, 120 OPS+
* Jim Kaat, P, 283-237, 3 A-S, 16 GG, 1966 TSN AL Pitcher of Year
* Tony Oliva, RF-DH, RoY,2x 2nd in MVP, 8 A-S, 1 GG, 3 BA Titles,
.304 BA, 220 HR, 131 OPS+
* Al Oliver, CF-1B, 7 A-S, .303 BA, 219 HR, 121 OPS+
* Vada Pinson, CF, 2 A-S, 1 GG, .286 BA, 256 HR, 110 OPS+
* Ron Santo, 3B, 9 A-S, .277 BA, 342 HR, 125 OPS+
* Luis Tiant, P, 229-172, 3 A-S, 2 ERA Titles
* Joe Torre, C-1B-3B, 9 A-S, 1 GG, 1971 MVP & BA title, .297 BA,
252 HR, 128 OPS+
* Maury Wills, SS, 1962 MVP, 5 A-S, 2 GG, 20 HR, .281 BA, 586 SB,
88 OPS+

Living Hall of Famers may vote for up to four. 75% required for
induction.

Pre-1943 Ballot: All are on the ballot as players:

* Bill Dahlen, SS, 1891-1911, 2457 H, 547 SB, .272 BA, 109 OPS+
* Wes Ferrell, P, 1927-1941, 193-128, 2 A-S, 1935 2nd in MVP, 116 ERA+
* Joe Gordon, 2B, 1938-1943&1946-1950, 1942 MVP, 9 A-S, 1530 H,
.268 BA, 120 OPS+
* Sherry Magee, LF, 1904-1919, 2169 H, 441 SB, .291 BA, 136 OPS+
* Carl Mays, P, 1915-1929, 207-126, 120 ERA+
* Allie Reynolds, P, 1942-1954, 182-107, 110 ERA+, 6 A-S
* Vern Stephens, SS, 1941-1955, 1859 H, .286 BA, 119 OPS+, 8 A-S
* Mickey Vernon, 1B, 1939-1943&1946-1960, 2495 H, 172 HR, .286 BA,
116 OPS+, 7 A-S, 2x BA Title
* Bucky Walters, P, 1931-1950, 6 A-S, 1939 MVP and TrplCrwn, 2x
ERA title, 3.30 ERA, 115 ERA+
* Deacon White, 3B-C, 1871-1890, 2066 H, .312 BA, 127 OPS+, 2x BA
Title

Committee of writers, execs and HOFers (12 total) may vote for up to
four. Nine votes required for induction.









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