I did the spreadsheet analysis on delegates. It turns out, that if one assumes that both HRC and BHO compete in all or most states, each winning a few, and a couple big (i.e., IL for Obama, NY for Clinton) the proportional representation provisions are going to drive toward a very close result on the night. For the record, I came up with Clinton 843-818 in my exercise. Then I stopped.
The move in overall preferences in the last few days suggests that using formulas on the demographics in each state won't help that much. Also, the trend seems to be toward Obama for some of the smaller states (like Idaho, Delaware).
It should be interesting, and California, still, will decide the night. In both parties: McCain will have a slam-bang evening which Romney could throw off with a win there.
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