UNP: Evening in Review--I

I loved the CNN graphic on the national vote--combined with delegates won on the night--but it took them until after midnight EST to bring it out. It showed HRC ahead "49-48", though actually she was only ahead by 100,000 votes on 12 million (0.1% lead, instead of 1%). I wonder if they got the people behind the numbers in the caucuses...

I think things are on target for very close to a draw on delegates won for the night.

Even CNN is not even close to keeping up with projections on the CD-level delegates; with 76% of the popular vote in (as they had on that graphic), they had only assigned about half the delegates won for the night. In order to keep up with the vote, one would have to use prior elections to project CD's and use Chi-squared-type monitoring to see whether there's enough data to reject the null--for most of the delegates--and then look closer (systematically, with a program) at the tie-breaking rules and how they would play out in each individual case.