Translate

Friday, January 25, 2008

Michigan/Florida Delegates Don't Matter

...and I can prove it.


HRC has said she will back the Michigan delegates (and presumably those coming out of the Florida primary as well) and TPM tHead Josh Marshall has blown his stack. He should chill.

Obama and Edwards should register their objection to the delegates coming out of the Michigan and Florida primaries, and that should be that. The only way they'd be seated is if Hillary gets a majority of the 4045 remaining delegates (excluding those two).


If Obama has a majority of the 4045, he would logically be generous and allow the Clintonites of the two states (the notable ones like Ben Nelson, Debbie Stabenow) a fair share of the actual seats in the final delegations. A fair share would not be the same as the allocation coming out of the (illegal) primary and would be such that it could not possibly upset the majority he would bring to Denver. So, if his margin is shaky, he would be less generous to Clinton (and more generous to, say, Edwards).

If it doesn't get to the convention, then it didn't matter anyway. If it does, its resolution could be a proxy for the real thing, and in that sense could be decisive, but it could never change the allocation of forces from what it is without Michigan and Florida represented.


I actually consider this something of a bizaree Win/Win for the DNC and the states themselves (as long as they are smart enough to make up at the end, and I assume they will be). The DNC did not want to let renegade states create future chaos in the primary schedule, and these two states are indeed punished. As I say, their delegates can not change the outcome, no matter what their fate. The two states seem desperate for attention, and they got some. Not much, though. The state leaders who pushed it are appropriately chastised.

Of course, it could end up being a Lose/Lose, fitting into the improbable theme now developing: How the Democrats Blew a Sure Thing!





No comments: