Edwards on the Rack

or Jon(athan) Edwards: Do-Gooder in the Arms of an Angry God (in the person of Barack Obama)

I don't think John Edwards has a chance to win the nomination itself as the candidates and the races stand today, but where they will stand later is subject to shifts from seismic events, which have occurred with great frequency this time around. He does well to plan to run intensively in the short run (to maintain legitimacy), toward selected states on Feb. 5, and then presumably beyond if there is any race still in progress.

I do feel that Edwards is closer to Obama than Clinton, but I don't think it would help Obama all that much if Edwards left the race now, even to endorse Obama. Many Obamites--like me--would have had Edwards as second choice, but that does not mean that most who support Edwards or are considering doing so would go to Obama if he dropped out, especially at this weird early-but-late stage of the primary season.

I don't believe much in the idea that a candidate can "throw" his delegates to another in this day and age. The notion that seems most plausible and effective in delivering the maximum number of Edwards delegates for Obama would be an agreement and announcement that Edwards would run for VP at some point, though that is a long, long way off and could require that Edwards hold his bloc of delegates through a long period of time. For the present, Obama would want to keep his options open, and later it would depend on whether he would be in a winning position with or without such an agreement.