Update: World Cup et al.

I refrained from making predictions on the World Cup results in my last post on the subject.  That is because slight differences in the group standings, of a point or a single goal, could decide which side of the bracket a team goes, and thus affect the course of the rest of the tournament.  Now that the first round games are concluded, the brackets are set for the knockout rounds, which begin today. 

In general, the teams that were favored won their groups, so the brackets really are not so different from what could be anticipated prior to that round.  Several of them, including the US team, had their places locked up prior to the third and final group game, which allowed them to try out some other players.  There definitely was some drama in the final games, though, for other teams that were in a must-win situation--win or go home--including Ecuador, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Croatia. There were a couple of games in which a tie score would allow both teams to go through, and, unsurprisingly, they tied, though not necessarily without some tension involved.  

Of the 16 teams that didn't make it to the knockout rounds, the most notable were Uruguay (the only prior winner thus eliminated, though Italy didn't even make it to the tournament), Turkey (which defeated the USA in its final game, but was eliminated by head-to-head results with the other two teams with which it had a draw), and Iran, which was both unlucky and ill-treated in the run-up to the tournament, visa-wise. Iran recorded three draws in its three games, but its 0 net goal difference was edged out by the result of the final game played, a 3-3 tie between Austria and Algeria, which gave each of them one more standings point than Iran.  I'm just glad there was no real trouble involving the team with which the US is currently still warring, un-acknowledgedly (if that's a word). 

The most interesting result, for me, was that nine teams from Africa made it into the final 32,   Though none of them won their groups, several of them could be tough ones to eliminate, and some might even be favored in the first round.  I mention in that regard Morocco, which played Brazil to a draw, and Egypt, which had a strong first round performance. 

The standard for an excellent result, for most teams, is reaching the quarterfinals, the round of 8, which requires two wins going forward from this point.  No more draws--if the score is tied, the teams go to 30 minutes of extra time, and then the dreaded penalty kick shootout if still tied. I am hopeful that the USA team will make it that far:  they are heavily favored in their first game, against Bosnia-Herzegovina, but I will point out that this is the team that eliminated Italy in a penalty shootout after a drawn knockout qualifying match in March. One big difference is that match was in Zenica, Bosnia and this one will be in Inglewood, California.  If the USMNT wins that game, they will play either Belgium or Senegal, either of which is a tough opponent capable of knocking us out. 

In terms of first-round games, ones that stand out as promising match-ups are Netherlands-Morocco, Ivory Coast-Norway, and Portugal-Croatia, along with that Belgium-Senegal one, though any of the games could provide some drama, if one of the top teams finds itself in trouble late in the match.  A highlighted game one might expect in the second round is France-Germany. 

My picks for the final eight: France, Morocco, Croatia, Belgium (left bracket); and Brazil, England, Argentina, and Colombia on the right side.  I anticipate a finals repeat matchup from 2022, France and Argentina, which the latter won in a penalty shootout after a 3-3 draw in regular time, and Argentina to repeat as champions, which would be the first repeat champion since Brazil in 1962.  I will point out that France, Argentina, and Mexico were the only three teams to win all three of their group matches, so those first two are in top form, while Mexico had the incentive to win in its third game and thus stay in their home country for the next round. 

Baseball

We are exactly at the halfway point of the regular season--the All-Star game break, the traditional measure of the end of the first half, is a couple weeks away.  In terms of individual performances, the leaders for the MVP are:  in the National League, Shohei Ohtani, once again, and Kyle Schwarber, who is hitting homers at a torrid pace; in the American League, Yordan Alvarez now looks like the clear leader since the injury to Aaron Judge.  For the Cy Young, a couple of youngsters lead the pack:  Jacob Misiorowski ("Le Mis") of the Brewers and Cam Schittler of the Yankees.  

In terms of league standings, the only real change in the National League since my last post was the Padres falling back toward .500, so the top second-place team is now the Phillies.  In the American League, there's a good competition between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Yankees, with the rest of the teams mired in mediocrity, or worse. 

NBA

The big event was the draft, and a number of trades around that date (along with many players being re-signed, or not). This year's draft class is considered one of the best in decades because of its depth, so there was a lot of jockeying for draft positions.  I don't want to give away my favorites, in case one of my competitors in our Rotisserie league (the "Out of Bounds League") may be watching, but there are several of the one-and-done college players I have my eye upon, guys who may be able to contribute in their first year.  Typically the draft in recent years features some promising athletic types who will need a couple years to fully develop their skills, but that is changing.  

 The big trade was Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leaves the Milwaukee Bucks after 13 seasons (one NBA championship) for the Miami Heat; and the second was a strange trade in which the Charlotte Hornets, frequently bottom-dwellers who came on strongly at the end of the last season, traded off their best player in that season, Lamelo Ball, to the Minnesota Timber Wolves, in exchange for a valuable reserve player, Naz Reid, and some exchange of future picks. 

Wimbledon (Tennis)

The tournament starts this week; I am hoping the heat wave will break, but without too much rain disrupting things. 

In the men's tournament, the big question is whether Jannik Sinner will be able to return to the dominant level he showed prior to overheating in the second round of the French Open and bowing out. Carlos Alcaraz will not be playing, as he's still recovering from a wrist problem.  Alexander (Sasha) Zverev won the French, in the absence of Alcaraz and the heatstroke of Sinner, his first Grand Slam title after several close calls, and his chances here are real, as well.  Finally, we may see whether Novak Djokovic can challenge for that one more Grand Slam victory he's been chasing for a couple of years. 

On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka seemed to be cruising, a la Sinner, before her near-collapse in the final, from which it appears she has not fully recovered mentally.  Maybe that's a false impression.  In her absence, I would look for Coco Gauff, or the rising star Mirra Andreeva, who won the French, to step into the opening.  Serena Williams returns to the tournament after several years being retired--we shall see.  Also, tennis immortal Roger Federer returns to the grass surface where he had his greatest success, playing in a doubles semi-exhibition with a couple other old chums. 

 

 

  

Sports: 4 X 3

 We'll try a disciplined posting approach and see if it goes quicker and more concisely:  four sports leagues, and for each, a beef, a freak, and my personal fave. 

National Basketball Association:  We'll start with the one currently in the highlights.  The San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks are at this moment in a critical game 1--if the Knicks can pull off a win here, at San Antonio, it will give them an edge for the series.  I'm rooting for the New York team, though I basically gave up on them after their last Finals run, in 1999 (against the Spurs, also).  They haven't won the title since 1973, while the Spurs, rising again after a few brief years of a downturn, have had more than their share. 

Beef:  Tanking, of course.  An unacceptable phenomenon of recent years, where teams not in the running for the playoffs try to lose as many games as possible in order to gain better odds to pick up the best players turning pro.  I won't say the Spurs did it, when they got their Freak, a couple years ago, but it has become too obvious, and there are various disincentives being discussed.  

Freak:  Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs, of course.  He is not only ridiculously tall, but very skilled.  I wish him success, and above all, good health.  Players that tall often have fairly short careers because of recurring injuries to their legs.  I hope he can beat that rap. 

My guy:  Shea Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I feel like he does everything right, including all skills on the court (passing, defense, the lost art of the midrange shot, and threes when he wants to) and a wonderful demeanor off it.  He faced off with Wemby in Game 7 of the recently-concluded Western Conference Finals, the matchup of the two best teams in the regular season.  SGA had the better game, but the Spurs had the better team on the night.  This rivalry is just taking off this season and will be one to watch in the coming years. 

FIFA World Cup:  Soccer/football's biggest event is coming up in a week.  The USA is singularly unimpressed and unimpressive as a host nation, so it's good there's two others helping out (Mexico and Canada).  There are several teams that could legitimately be considered favorites.  France has too many superstars, Spain and England are hungry and full of proven talent, but I like the defending champs, Argentina, with their incomparable captain, Leonel Messi, for the win. 

Beef:  They expanded the field from 32 to 48 nations (we'll call England a nation for this purpose, another beef to be explored someday), which is OK, I guess, though it would seem it makes it too easy to qualify (Italy somehow didn't).  The real beef is that it is now too easy to get through the first round to the knockout stages, which are now up to five rounds.  So, for example, France is in the toughest group by far, with tough first-round opponents in Senegal and Norway (see below), but they will get through anyhow because three of the four teams are likely to make it (Iraq is the unfortunate fourth).  So the pressure is not really that high for that round, which has a majority of the actual games (96 vs. 31 for the rest of the tourney, by my count). ***

Freak:  Erling Haaland, the super-tall, albino-looking center forward for Manchester City and Norway.  His opponents basically have to keep him from ever getting on the ball near the goal, where he hangs out, avoiding the offside calls, because he's next to unstoppable and very accurate when he gets it there.  In that regard, he's different from the classic advanced midfielders like Messi or the ageless Luka Modric, or the withdrawn centers like Kylian Mbappe, Mohammed Salah and Harry Kane, who go back and get it and then do their magic.

My guy:  Christian Pulisic, "Captain America" for the USA team (not named the team's captain, though).  His career has been up and down, with flashes of brilliance, frequent injuries, and prolonged dry spells.  He's another who goes back and gets it and charges toward the goal with fervor (another is Kevin De Bruyne, on Belgium, who's finally slowing down).  After a successful run in the German league, Pulisic flamed out on my team, Chelsea, a couple years ago, then regained brilliance with A.C. Milan in Italy for awhile, but he lost the flame late this season and the team will probably rebuild without him next year. If he can make some major contributions toward victories in the World Cup it will do a lot for his career and for the prestige of USA soccer, which is lagging a bit.  

 Major League Baseball:  They are coming up on about 40% of the regular season now, and it's clear who are the likely contenders, especially in the National League, the one I follow more closely:  the Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, and Padres.  My Reds are among the many teams looking to grab one of the two playoff berths available after those four. 

Beef:  The lack of parity is driven by the astronomical salary load of the Dodgers, and of lesser, wealthy franchises trying to keep up with them.  The modernized game--you can like the changes, or loathe them, but they have helped broaden fan interest, and the game is more global in its reach than ever--is in peril, with the possibility of a devastating lockout and strike after this season, the dispute being over the owners' proposed salary cap.  I take the players' side always in these disputes, but the owners' willingness to restrain themselves in this way is the correct viewpoint. ,

Freak:  That's Shohei Ohtani.  His ability to dominate in both hitting and pitching (this year, so far, especially the latter) is without rival in the modern game and brings fair comparisons only to the immortal Babe Ruth--Shohei's surpassing him in some ways (the homers and speed combination, longer pitching career), but the clock is ticking, and worshippers of the game give too much emphasis on longevity, which he can't match, unless you include his stats in Japan. 

My guy:  Elly de la Cruz, of my team, the Cincinnati Reds.  My fandom of the Reds is a very long story, and I hope Elly is able to have a long, successful career with my team, though as things stand now, he will likely go to a higher bidder in a couple years.  Elly can do it all--speed, fielding, power--though he hasn't tried pitching, as far as I know.  

Women's Tennis Association:  For this post, I will focus on the women's game** Tennis is the major sport in which women's participation is most fully comparable to the men's, in terms of money and talent.*  Yes, the men generally hit the ball harder, and they play best-of-five sets to the women's best-of-three, but there is the same high-profile, personality-driven excitement in this sport, which tests the individual like no other. 

Beef:  This year's French Open, the only one of the four Grand Slams played on clay, the more demanding in terms of stamina (not so easy to serve your way through matches), is close to killing players, due to the heat wave and the five-setters on the men's side.  They need to bring in one of the initiatives of the other Slams and give the players a fucking break once in a while.  They should also make the fifth set a brief one, like the super tiebreaker they have in doubles (for which longer matches would make much more sense). 

Freak:  Aryna Sabalenka is a big woman, tall and muscular.  Handsome, I'll say, and with an underrated sweet personality.  She has a big serve and a ferocious competitive temperament.  Though she ran out of gas the other day in her quarterfinal match (see above), she is hard to handle for everyone except the similarly tall, similarly powerful-serving Elena Rybakina.  Serena Williams is coming out of retirement at age 44, to take her shot at Sabalenka, I presume:  they have quite a bit in common, except the personality. 

My guy+:  Iga Swiatek was the top player for a couple of years, nearly unbeatable until the rise of the two giants I mention above.  Swiatek is a normal-sized woman player who does most everything right, except she strives so much it's scary. I hope her form can rise up again to her previous level, but I doubt it--the competition has gotten tougher.  

There are others in today's WTA for whom I have similar soft spots:  Coco Gauff, Naomi Osaka, and Elena Svitolina, to name three; they all have their challenges.  Coco's is her serve, which comes and goes, Osaka's is her mercurial mental state, and Svitolina's is her personal challenges as a mother, wife to a men's pro, and the stress of being Ukrainian. It's hard for me to choose when they face each other, but I quietly lean toward Iga most often. 

 

P.S.  The Knicks win Game 1.  Finished this one in less than hour--that's progress.  

**I've addressed the men's game often enough in other posts--at this moment, Sinner stands alone (though he also pooped out in the heat), until Alcaraz is back on the court.  For this tourney, I'm rooting for Zverev to win; he's worked long and hard and this is his best shot ever at a slam. 

*The other might be track and field, and the Olympics generally, which have given women a lot more competitive equality in recent decades, and have dealt pretty successfully with gender ambiguity issues. 

+"Guy" in the modern language meaning of person, without gender specified, to keep parallel in form with the other three sports' comments. 

*** I am not counting the abysmal 3rd-place game, which everyone knows should have been removed decades ago.  

 

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Forza Italia!

 The sponsors of the World Baseball Clinic breathed a sigh of relief when the Italy team defeated Mexico in their final game of group play, though Italy had already qualified to go through.  

That result saved the USA team from being eliminated in the first round.  USA had already suffered embarrassment when they went down to that Italy team, 8-6.  DreamTeam 2.0 was in great danger, but fortune favored the team.  They'd better not take their eye off the ball again, you could say. 

The "Italian" hero of the team was Vincent Pasquantino, born Richmond, VA and first-baseman for the Kansas City Royals.  That's OK:  Vinnie wasn't going to be the USA 1B--that honor goes to the renowned Bryce Harper--but he got three homers in the game that got the USA through, and then voiced positive statements about his Italian teammates (a mixed bag) and his "patriotic" feelings. 

Japan is probably the favorite at this point, if the travel bug doesn't get them. I saw the bracket briefly, the USA team will play Canada next. 

College Hoops (Men's)

Gearing up for some formidable March Madness this year.  What I like is that there are at least six teams that have proven themselves repeatedly against the best competition, coming out ahead 80% of the time or more.* To name them in order:  Michigan, Florida (defending champion), Arizona, Duke, Houston, Connecticut, and Michigan State.  That was seven, but one should never sell Michigan St. short in the NCAA.  All of them except UConn are in the big four of basketball conferences (Big 10, Big 12, Big SEC, and Big ACC) that have absorbed the best programs nationally regardless of their traditional regional concentrations. +

Because they have proven themselves so many times in conference play, even on the road,  I would expect six of the above to make the last 16, 5 of the last 8, and both of the finalists.  These teams should be relatively immune to upset-itis. 

It's not like that beyond the top two or three seeds in each of the four regions.  The two teams I have long followed, Louisville and Kentucky, are both going to be middling seeds, ripe for mild first-round upsets. On the other hand, they have enough talent to make it through three wins to the "Elite Eight".

The brackets get announced Sunday after the last of the conference championships.  The conference tourneys this week are just a warmup for real thing that begins next week. Most of the teams on the air in the big four are going to be between teams whose positions in the tournament are assured and almost fixed already.  So, the coaches would just as soon the team have its bad game now, if there is one, and mostly stay away from injuries. 

That is, unless your team is "on the bubble" of making the field of 68, which is where my newer team, the University of New Mexico Lobos, currently lie.   In the predictive analysis of Saint Joe Lunardi, who does Bracketology throughout the season, New Mexico is currently one of the first four teams out, spots 69-72 if you will # They are not likely to move back into the at-large selections, if Lunardi is right, so they need to win their conference tournament, to be sure, or at least win a couple of games to make the final, to give them a chance, of making "the Big Dance". I'd say they are "under the bubble", and there's not much air there.  It's all so Big!

NBA 

Victor Wembanyama is the story of the league this year, and the networks are taking every opportunity to show him nationally.  He is 7-foot-4 with highly developed ball skills, both ball-handling and shooting. He's a good free-throw shooter, a good passer.  He looks a little like Ralph Sampson, if you remember him, but he has French poise and better shooting touch. Mostly, though, he's 7-foot-4 and able to block lesser players' shots without leaving his feet.  

Wemby missed quite a few games early in the season, but since he's been back, it's just like old times for the San Antonio Spurs, one of the most successful franchises over the last 30 years.  The Spurs announced their challenge to the reigning champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, in the NBA Cup, which they won.  They have won the majority of the games against the Thunder, and thus would get the tiebreaker in seeding if the teams finished tied, which they currently are very close to doing.  

The Thunder started the season seemingly unbeatable until they ran into the Spurs in that game, then after a poor stretch  their star Shea Gilgeous-Alexander got injured, and they seem almost vulnerable.  Almost.  They are still the favorites.  SA-OKC is indicated for the Western Conference final, though there are several other serious contenders. 

The Eastern Conference is not at all like that, in that there are no clear favorites.  Maybe the Celtics (my preseason pick for the finals, contrary to most predictions), who now have their star Jayson Tatum back, with his teammate Jaylen Brown among the top candidates for Most Valuable Player for keeping them in the running until now.  After that, though, the Pistons, Knicks, Cavaliers, and now the Hornets and Heat all look like they could make some magic in the playoffs.   

FIFA World Cup 

There are still several berths yet to be finally determined in the tournament, to be held in June and July in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. These are among the second-place teams from the group competitions, so they get another chance, in the interests of fairness, in the case they were just unfortunate in their initial groupings. 

I'm not sure if that's the case for Italy--they finished second to a worthy Norway team, in a tough group--or just that they underperformed tremendously. At any rate, they are in a delicate spot.  They need to defeat--in single-game combat--Northern Ireland, and then the winner of Wales and Bosnia-Herzegovina.  It may sound easy, but success is not certain, and the repercussions if Gli Azzurri fail to qualify will be tremendous. 

(Start with Italy, end with Italy) 

 

 * That works out to winning all of them at home, and 60% on the road or in neutral sites.  A high bar, one that bodes well for the tourney.  

+ For the Big 10 (now 18 teams) - originally the upper Midwest, now coast to coast; For the Big 12 (originally the Big 8, now 16 teams) - originally the lower Midwest; or the SEC ("Southeastern Conference", originally 10 teams, now 16, the Southeast, yes, as far as the Ohio, but now including the far side of the Mississippi; and the Big ACC ("Atlantic Coast Conference", originally eight teams, now 18/17 with teams at least 1000 miles from it).  Connecticut is in the Big East, which has 11 teams, but half are newcoming refugees from lesser conferences in the Mideast.  

#That's not strictly accurate, in terms of the rank order of the teams.  There are 20-30 colleges that are in because of their conference tournament victories that wouldn't otherwise be there, so the at-large selections are something like the 30 or so runner-ups or worse.  The Bigs get as many as ten teams in, or even more.  

Obit Dept.

Jesse Jackson- I remember the '84 Democratic campaign, when he made his most serious run at the nomination. As usual, I backed the wrong horse, John Glenn, who had the resume (first US man to circle the earth in space, elected twice senator from Ohio) but not the campaigning chops. I was young, but I think my instinct that the idea of a Democratic hero for President is more valid than ever, and it was always good.  

As for Jesse, I never believed he would win, in the way I did believe in Barack Obama as a viable black aspirant to win the White House. I appreciated Jesse's arguments, his classic ministerial manner of speech, though.  In the end, it was between Mondale and Hart, both obvious losers to Reagan.  Mondale was the won who ended up winning the loss.  

There was a lot more to Jesse, though, than his political candidacy.  He was a public moral goad to our country, ever since the days of MLK's assassination.  So he gets a lot of credit for the progress that has been made, and his loss signifies the tragedy of this moment. *

Robert Duvall - The most professional American (US) actor you could ever find. Acted in countless films, sometimes starring, sometimes in minor roles.  Always filled the role admirably; it seemed that he was that person, which left his true nature and feelings hidden. Most memorably put his stamp forever on the role of "consigliere"--counselor at-large--in the Godfather films. 

Lee Hamilton - a role model in so many ways, he personified characteristics like humility, wisdom, integrity, in his decades in Congress and in public service.  He may not be well-remembered anymore; I must do a little to deal with that and give my thanks. 

I followed his career from his earliest days in Congress in the '60's--he represented a part of Indiana of farms and medium-sized towns, and including Columbus, where I had politically active relatives.  He was a moderate Democrat who managed to get elected, by large margins, time after time as the political needle in Indiana moved steadily to the right.  (When he left Congress, his seat went to Mike Pence.) The area prospered, so that may have helped his ability to stay in place, but his specialty was foreign affairs and national security.  He was chosen to co-write the official review of 9/11 and its causes, which was and remains authoritative. 

Sonny Jurgensen - There was a time when I was a fan of the Washington Redskins.  That was the time when Jurgensen was their.   quarterback.  He made their team exciting, and that was the team we would normally get on our local game telecast (CBS, Virginia TV stations).  After him came George Allen as coach and Billy Kilmer as quarterback, and I walked away from them and their patriotic pretensions.  I have not turned back. 

Bill Mazeroski - Just slightly before my time as a conscious baseball fan, Maz's 9th-inning homer won the 1960 World Series for the Pittsburgh Pirates in a riotous seventh game against the New York Yankees.  He was more renowned for his fielding than his hitting, but he did have that one forever-memorable bomb, and it defeated the Yankees.  I respected that enormously; the next year (my first as a conscious baseball fan), the Yankees resumed their position on top against the team I follow, the Reds (preseason forecast coming soon). 

Mickey Lolich - I can't say that much, but I have a clear memory of that 1968 season.  Denny McLain won 31 games during the regular season, an incredible feat that may never be approached, let alone matched or exceeded.  Lolich was the #2 starter for those Tigers, but it was he who won three World Series games against the Cardinals, and their stud pitcher, Bob Gibson, who bested McLain.  Lolich had a better career than McLain.  

 

*I procrastinated on this post to the degree that I am finishing it while Obama, Biden, Clinton, Rev. Al et al. are commemorating Jesse (and tying it in with today's Drumpfenreich situation) so much better than I could.  Glory to Jesse!  

 

U.S. vs. The World

 That was the headline that the NBA, in its desperation to find a reason to create basketball involving its All-Stars in a way that would appeal, came up with for this year.  I think it was a lot better than recent efforts, because in fact there are a whole lot of All-Stars from countries other than the U.S., enough to make a team that is very credible--especially if you include Canada now as something foreign.*

 The NBA, like Major League Baseball, maintains a token presence outside our borders in Toronto, barely a couple hours drive beyond.  The NHL has maintained its traditional franchises in Canada but has overwhelmed their previous dominance with a host of US teams based in places like Arizona, Florida, Anaheim and Vegas. While in football, of course, Canadians have their own thing which is inferior to ours and we don't have to respect it. 

Baseball differs a little in that regard, though, because the source of its players is increasingly from various regions of the world, almost outnumbering those from the US.  Indeed, there is a World Baseball Classic coming up, with teams from countries all over competing with the US.  We are not the favorites, nor even the best American team--that would probably be the Dominican Republic.  Japan can also put a scare into us, with Shohei Ohtani perhaps playing both ways--maybe even in the same game!  

Snark:And what is this thing about Puerto Rico competing against the US? That should not be allowed.  Donald--speak up for the "ownership" of that territory, and let's seize their players.  The Venezuelans, too, since we're running that country; there's some significant players from both./s.

Not Quite Ideal 

I am a fan of the Olympics, and I watched a lot of these Winter Olympics just finished.  First, I want to commend the Italians for putting on a good show, giving the athletes the opportunity to do their things under the best conditions for their sports (they have the advantage that bad weather adds to the drama without stopping most events), for filling the arenas and locales safely, and for managing the local chaos which the event always produces.  The closing ceremony was intensely "bello"; that one, and the Japanese one from the '24 Tokyo Olympics have together set the bar very high for creativity to be supplied by future hosts. 

The Winter Olympics feature a bunch of sports about which I know relatively little, don't normally follow, and which I have no aptitude nor desire to participate in anymore.  That's okay, but I am a fan of most sports and these are a good change of pace to see different ones.  I feel the same way about most of the sports in the Summer Olympics, too.  The Olympic sports that I most follow--baseball and basketball--are there, but not particularly well represented by national teams.  Those sports, and others such as soccer, volleyball, ice hockey, field hockey, and Ultimate Frisbee,  I would put in a separate event for national team sports. It would be a major draw in itself and bring the rest of the games closer to the original idea. #

The nationality aspect is the worst problem with the games, with the TV coverage strategy the second worst.  Abolish the medal count; make the medal award ceremony private, without the anthems.  As for the TV coverage of the Olympics, I've watched it in other countries, and the problem is always the same. It's about "our" athletes and whether they win medals. If anything deeper is provided, it's usually not about the sport, but it's about life stories. To their credit, I suppose, they are still holding to the '70's Wide World of Sports approach:  "the human drama of athletics".  But if there's no patriotic interest, no special narrative, it's not worth showing, as it presumably won't draw ad revenue.   Less editing, more channels, please--nothing that hard to do.  All that patriotic gore and media hype detracts from the focus of the Olympics, which must be the games and the athletes' incredible devotion and skill.

The nexus of media fame and athlete sometimes resembles a car crash.  It's particularly intense for the US participants in figure skating, the only sport in the winter games that is a major draw. * US figure skater Ilia Malinin got T-boned by the intense expectations which got to him mentally, freezing him up extraordinarily. It's truly unfortunate that his greatest audience so far in his short career saw his worst--his skating ability is miraculous, as he's shown in the past.  Women's skater Alysa Liu, who had been through the wringer of the public eye years before, quit a few years ago in reaction, but then came back for the love of the sport and skated (a much less difficult program) with joy and won the gold medal.

There wasn't much anti-American sentiment (referring specifically to "USA!"), though there was a typical unhinged Italian riotous protest off-campus, generally against the expenditure and land-use decisions, but also specifically against the presence in Italy of the US paramilitary force called by the acronym "ICE".  What the hell they were doing there is unexplained and inexplicable:  I'm quite sure there were no undocumented immigrants to the US among the Olympians gone abroad, and if there were some in the support teams or the volunteers at the games who are self-deporting, fine.  I guess they want to take credit, if there are some units toward their quota to be accrued.  .

Terrible Tariff Mess  

We all knew that the tariff regime imposed by Trump in executive orders last spring relied on a legal basis which was unsound. The Supreme Court has done no less and no more than making that clear, without providing any remedy.  The money collected by importers following their perceived requirement to obey was until now paid to the Federal government's Treasury.  The expectation from the Court's decision is that the money, collected contrary to law, must be refunded by the government to those who paid it in.  What those importers are expected to do with it has not been seriously considered. 

I think that the amount they are going to see will be only a fraction of the number collected from those tariffs--I have heard that amount is $170 billion.  Trump immediately reimposed tariffs under a different shaky legal justification, uniformly at 15%, so almost as high as before.  My prediction is that those importers will only get the difference between the old tariffs and the new ones, and that the effort to get it will require piles of bureaucratic paper and/or lawsuits.  Instead, Trump will seek to distribute money in checks signed by him to every US citizen, which works out to about $500 per individual, minus the amounts he pays after short-changing the importers.  He will sell it to them that this way, they don't have to deal with the complexity of reimbursing consumers. He may not get away with it this time, though.   

Tariffs are the classic Us vs. World kind of policy, but the world outside the US doesn't have as much problem with them as one might think.  Consumers abroad don't have to pay for them.  The issue is mostly about the uncertainty, there and in financial markets, and this new tariff policy will not end that, and the mess will continue as Trump tries to layer in penalties above and beyond.  

 As for "Bomb Iran", Trump has boxed himself into a scenario in which he will end up having to act, to do what Bibi wants him to do, in spite of the Iran government's desperation to avoid getting bombed again--or worse.  Whatever concessions they can make, and they are willing to make some--essentially the same ones they agreed to long ago in the multi-lateral agreement Trump trashed in his first term--they will not be enough for Bibi, and therefore, for Trump.  What a dumbass loser!

 

 *The surprising thing is that the US won vs. The World in both semifinals and so played each other in the "So What?" finals.  I don't really know more than that, as I didn't watch any of it.   In general, though, if the US takes on the world, it will lose. Even in a nuclear war.

# I support most of the Olympic ideal, though I have to give the Moderns some credit for finally abolishing the myth of amateurism.  One interesting note is that I heard a podcaster saying they had heard there is an informal agreement among nations not to start wars during the Olympics. (see the timing of the Sochi Winter Olympics and the initial invasion of Ukraine) I didn't know there is such a thing, but I know that in the original (Greek) Olympics there was the tradition that the warring of city-states would cease for the period of the Games.  

 +I am intentionally dismissing ice hockey from that honor:  its following in the US is intense but not so huge, and it's not a sport that most TV viewers can take in.  I will say that the broadcasters in hockey have a special talent for following that puck and recognizing each player involved, made more difficult by the constant, unannounced substitutions. 

As for the US' ice hockey team's gold medal, I salute their devotion and skill, like all the other NHL athletes who showed up.  

The reason figure skating is so central is because of its many female (and gay) enthusiasts.  Men are dragged in, and sometimes we are amazed, often amused--because we men tend to think it's amusing when people fall on their butts.  

A Cup, Please. No Ice

That's one of my most frequent lines on aircraft--I tend not to talk much except when spoken to. 

Unlike my partner, who always has the most interesting conversations.  

Certainly the quality of person on planes is good, in general. 

...as applied to the FIFA World Cup 

The draw for the World Cup was an exciting event, I hear.  Not so much the draw itself, but the ambience. This does bode well; our oppressive environment is not being extended to the international invasion--at least, not so far.  Trump is not threatening the FIFA head, who has made buddy-buddy with him. 

Seriously, we cannot have ICE raids on locales for World Cup soccer games.  There are going to be many foreigners, and many of them will not have the right papers. I think the immigration authorities will be smart enough to realize that, and the dangers of provocation in such public areas, and keep their distance.  

This is a very feel-good kind of draw this time around, as they expand the tournament to 48 nations instead of 32.  Instead of eight groups of four, there will now be 12 of them.  To make things really lax, though, 32 of the 48 will go through to the knockout rounds, of which there will now be one full round more, with 16 more games. So, the early rounds are easy, but if you want to win or reach the heights, say, of the semifinals, you have to win one more knockout round than before. 

 Each of the top  9 ranked countries have their own group where they may rule, the three other groups topped by the home teams, the USA, Mexico, and Canada.. Finishing first means a team would face a second or third-place team of its group, while finishing second means facing a team finishing first or second.  Don't think of the odds for a team finishing third, while one finishing fourth goes home.  

To illustrate, we could look at the US, ranked 14th in the world, and its first round opponents. A very successful outcome would be to reach the quarterfinals (round of 8) of the tournament; to do that, they need to get through the first round and then win two matches in the knockout rounds. Their first game is against Paraguay, their second against Australia, and their third and final game will be against a team that wins a four-team play-in group, most likely Turkiye.   The US will be heavily favored in the first two games (though Paraguay may be tough to break down), then the third game would likely be to determine first and second place.  

If they win the group, the US would face a third-place team from another group, and if they win that, their round-of-16 match would likely be against Belgium (the team that knocked them out in 2014), whereas if the US finishes second, they would play a second-place team, then, if they win, likely run up against Argentina.  That's a big difference, as Argentina is the defending champion, dominated the highly-competitive South American qualification, and is one of the consensus favorites for the tournament (along with Spain, France, and England). At a minimum, then, the US should qualify; furthermore, it should finish first or second in its group. After that, it's a bit of a crap shoot, though deterministic in its way.  . 

There won't be a lot of first-round games between two highly-rated teams with a lot to play for:  two I see are France vs. Norway (June 26), which features two of the top scorers in the world (Kylian Mbappe for France and Erling Haaland for Norway)  and a great opener for England against always-dangerous Croatia on June 17.  After that first round, though, the tension and quality of matches will rise. 

I'll be watching from abroad and will be interested to see if the US makes a mess of its hospitality with an excess of America First-type jingoism. The recent Ryder Cup (golf) did not show us on our best behavior. 

The NBA Cup

 The pro basketball league fashioned an ingenious in-season tournament last year to pump up some interest in the early season (this time of year), when football dominates.  The clever part is that all the games in this tournament, except the final one, are fitted into the regular season schedule and count in the standings for it. 

The qualification games are now completed and eight teams advanced to the single-elimination knockout rounds.  With qualification based on just a few games, some of the top teams did not advance.  The question for this year's cup is whether any team can stop the Oklahoma City Thunder, the league's defending champion, which comes into the tournament with a 23-1 record.  The Phoenix Suns had their chance yesterday and were defeated by 49 points; the San Antonio Spurs will be next (with Wemby, maybe?-- their star, Victor Wembanyama), and then there will be a team from the Eastern Conference (the Orlando Magic or the New York Knicks).  I'll be very surprised if the Thunder don't capture the Cup (the Milwaukee Bucks won last year but did not reach the next round this time).  The final does not count in the standings, but I think Oklahoma City's team will be motivated to continue their dominance on the terms offered.  

The big problem with the Cup is that it is only on Prime Video (Amazon's).   

The Vince Lombardi Trophy and the College Football Playoff Championship Trophy

 I would humbly suggest to the directorates of the college and pro football leagues that they consider changing the name of their grand prize, or just get a cup (also, no ICE, please!) You would think the football jocks would get it.  The NFL trophy honors Lombardi, head coach of the Packers when they won the first two Super Bowls, but today the man represents a style of coaching--motivating by bullying and fear--which should be long gone.  The Super Bowl, of course, is a monumental event (not a great game, usually) which deserves a new, gorgeous cup named after a worthy, deceased predecessor. I'll let them figure it out. 

The NFL is going into the last weeks of this season with more spots not yet determined in the (now, 14-team) playoffs than usual.  In some divisions multiple teams are winning at better than 2-1, and in others no team is more than a game over .500.  So, there will be more meaningful games in the last weeks.  Top spot in each conference is the regular-season prize for the teams that have already assured their playoff spots, as it gets them a first-round bye.   

As for the college playoffs, every year since 2014, when the NCAA invented that poorly-named trophy and replaced the chaotic Bowl game-based method of identifying a top team, there has been a new experiment in a football playoff, each year with new public relations disaster and new learnings. 

 In 2024, the playoff was expanded from four teams all the way to 12, using existing bowl locations and dates for some of the games--a major improvement. With 12 teams, four teams get a first-round bye, but last year two of the four were conference champions not worthy of the honor and promptly eliminated by at-large teams in the quarterfinals.  

This year, they improved that by simply giving the four top-seeded teams the first-round byes.  Two of them, Indiana and Ohio State, are from the same conference. The odious championship games for the various conferences did not seem to have extra weight, though of course in most cases they paired up the highest-performing teams in the conference in a game you could consider "regular-season".  

Not all, though.  The ACC (formerly known as the Atlantic Coast Conference, now thoroughly bastardized with national participation of universities seeking good basketball) ended up with a Virginia-Duke game, when the best two teams with ACC affiliation were Miami and Notre Dame.  More on the Irish later.  Duke, outrageously far from being ranked in the top 25, came up with an upset in overtime, which effectively killed Virginia's Cinderella-ish hopes.  Neither got a bid, but Miami did, without the championship invite.  

The last two at-large bids came down to Miami, Notre Dame, and Alabama. Miami defeated Notre Dame early in the season, but both finished 10-2 and played no conference championship, while Alabama's decisive loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game was their third. Miami and Alabama got the bids and Notre Dame was left out, screaming foul.  

There was bad blood between the Notre Dame athletic director and the ACC direction afterward, because it was claimed  Miami was improperly favored over Notre Dame in the final week's analysis.  Miami was moved past them, though neither team played.  I see the Irish--who are not in the ACC for football but are for other sports--making a move to the Big 10 (now with 18 teams, I think), now including many of those special historic rivals which kept Notre Dame independent for football. 

At least the controversy has moved from #4/5 to #9/10/11 of the seeded playoff picks, with a couple reserved for the winners in lesser conferences.  I back the proposal to move to 14 teams, with the only two first round byes going to the champions of the two most successful conferences (based on interconference play).  The extra two positions would help resolve some of these problems about promised slots and maybe move the controversy borderline out of the top 10. The one about going to 24 teams (eight to get guaranteed berths and byes through conferences?) I think could be made to work--there are a lot of crappy bowl games that could be replaced with elimination games in the early rounds.  My strongest advice for the next year's controversies is that they get a cup, no ice. 

 Bottom line is that Notre Dame is acting too entitled (for refusing to play any bowl game, out of spite) and college football is its own athletic industrial complex, and the conference commissions are the bad guys. The outstanding Indiana-Ohio St. game was probably the highlight of the season, including the final of the playoffs, whenever it finally comes.  (My pick would be Georgia.)   

Edit (12/21):  The ACC really blew it with its selection process for the championship.  The wise thing would have been to invite Notre Dame somehow, which would have made the school more willing to join definitively.  Now I think they will dislodge definitively, once they are free to do so.  The cravenness of both the conferences and the universities in their choice of association in recent years is distasteful. 

Time Out

 It may seem that I am obsessed with US politics, given the preponderance of posts in this year about the ongoing fail of our form of government.  It is not the case--like most of us, I have plenty of other considerations in play in my life, all the time. 

In my case, travel--arranging it and doing it--is a principal activity.  We have acquired a new apartment, in the tiny town of Bagnone, province of Massa/Carrara, NW corner of Tuscany (Italy), and making it into a home (second? first? TBD) is what we are doing right now. Italy's politics remain interesting to me, as a bystander of long duration, and I will opine on that at the right time.  One has to keep a close eye on the economy, domestic and global:  I will have something to say about AI, but suffice for now to say that, contrary to what the public and the reigning Dickhead think, the state of the economy has a lot less to do with the political environment than the mindset and behavior of the massive US consumer markets.  I want to comment on the reviving, but fractured, music scene, and definitely on movies, which seem finally to be shaking off the limiting superhero genre as their only viable product, this fall's serious output being the current evidence. 

Now, though, it's a good time to address sports. This time of year is one of the most interesting, to me anyway, with the baseball playoffs heading toward their climax, the football season (both kinds) getting into gear, and the basketball season getting underway. Of course there are a lot of other sports active in this season. Here, we've been seeing incredibly good early fall weather here; we had a cycling rally and a running one last weekend here in the area which attracted hundreds of participants around these small towns. I hear the marathon run in Boston was a big hit, and the one in New York is coming up (right before the election there, another worthy diversion from the national mess). My wife asks me to remind everyone of the Winter Olympics coming up in February, in northern Italy.  But let's focus--here, on the big three (or four). 

Football, American Style

I've been watching the game as it has emerged as the dominant sport in the US over the decades, but it would not be accurate to say I'm a fan. There are many aspects of it I dislike, above all the continuing toll of crippling and mind-destroying injuries--the control by corporatist billionaires is a given.  I've watched enough to be knowledgeable about the game, but not the individual players so much; most of them come and go too quickly for me to notice, except for one position.  The quarterbacks, of course, are what the game revolves around today:  who's hot, who's injured, who's getting the protection they need to succeed or finding ways to escape the pass rush, and those who don't, lose. The game remains fun to watch, perhaps now more than ever, as scoring climbs with pass defenders hampered more than ever, and the spectacle of the long pass, and how it gets set up, is as entertaining as ever.  I have to praise the innovation of the skycam and the alternative TV channel which dispenses with the constant analytical babble--we've got all these channels, they might as well use them. 

As a rule, I pay little to no attention to the NFL standings or even the teams' performances until late November, and this year is no exception. I do notice that some of the teams we are used to seeing dominate are suffering more losses early:  I'm sure most of them will get it straightened out by the end, quarterback injury status permitting, but in the meantime it's good for the game that some other teams are getting some play, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers with Aaron Rodgers (!) 

The college game is perhaps more intriguing right now.  The postseason playoffs expanded to 12 teams last year, and the tourney produced somewhat predictable results.  This year it looks as though nothing can be predicted:  the top teams have been taking turns beating each other week after week, and some surprising new powers have emerged, both ones with rich history but difficulties in recent years (Ole Miss, Texas A&M) and the improbable rise of the Indiana Hoosiers, long a doormat of the Big Ten, and James Madison, a university that was primarily a women's teachers college within my memory. What made IU and JMU possible is the transfer window, providing mobility for players that no other major team sport features (OK, college basketball).  What made Mississippi and Texas A&M go is the attraction among players to come and perform in the SEC, the only conference that matters anymore. The only thing certain seems to be that Ohio State will dominate the 16-team Big Ten and be there in the end--prove me wrong, someone!

The outstanding "human interest" story of college football this year is the saga of Arch Manning, the third-generation quarterback of the Texas Longhorns.  It was expected that he would win the Heisman trophy as the top college player this year, but that expectation just made him a target for opposing defenses and for media criticism, as it hasn't gone so well for that campaign (and it is an electoral campaign).  Texas lost early, as did Alabama, and I mistakenly wrote them off.  I wish him well; he's probably been under the pressure of unreasonable expectations since he was a child. 

World Football 

The big news this time of year in global football  (or soccer, foosball, or calcio if you prefer) is the "transfer window" also, but it is different there:  this is about the purchase of rising players by the big-money teams from those needing to sell, the players being the draw for the critical sale of merchandise.  Yes, there are rules to prevent the game becoming a total monopoly, but it's a fact that the rules were made to be bent. Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Juventus, the English Premier League big 3 (Liverpool, Manchester City, and Manchester United--usually) and Barcelona hover over the landscape of the smaller clubs all over the world that develop most of the talent. 

My team in the English Premier League, Chelsea, is off to a muddling start after a surprising run to win the World Club Football championship this summer in the US, an off-season triumph which took advantage of its relatively light supplementary season in '24-25 to pull off another trophy (actually the trophy was pulled off by none other than The Dickhead himself, who showed up uninvited on the winners' championship stage and "borrowed" it for decorating his offices). Anyway, the squad has tons of young talent, with the result being surprising victories over better teams (like PSG then, and Liverpool a couple weeks ago) along with shocking losses to league teams with less talent. It looks like it will be a battle to the finish to stay in the Champions League, the all-important goal for financial purposes, though probably a fairly early departure from Champions League competition itself this year. 

The football world has one eye on the upcoming World Cup in 2026, which has expanded yet again, to 48  teams. Getting to it is still a big deal, though, either if you do or especially, with the top European nations, if you don't. The event will be held in the US, Canada, and Mexico, so all three of those countries will get a free pass, which will open the door for some other countries in the North American/Caribbean region to qualify, more than usually. 

The specter of Donald Trump looms over the planning for the event somehow.  He has been making threats about taking planned matches away from Boston and Los Angeles if those cities don't do something or the other that he is requesting.  Mr. Trump is about to learn a lesson, though:  there is something bigger than him, or even than the US, and that is world football, governed by a corrupt but powerful body called FIFA, and they decide the venues and timing of the events.  The US is, at best, a peripheral power in that organization.  If he fucks around too much, they might just take the finals away from his country (right now, it's scheduled to be in the Meadowlands in NJ) and put it in a real soccer country, like Mexico.

Basketball

Being a native of Kentucky, hoops are deeply ingrained in my culture from the very beginning. Keeping up with high school games is too big and broad for me at this point, but I do care deeply about the college game.  It has also been somewhat transformed by the open transfer policy. Previously, a player had to sit out a year if he changed colleges; I have to praise this expansion of freedom.  It does mean that a program can be built almost from scratch in a year, but also, combined with the ability for top college players to turn pro after one year, that it can disappear just as quickly, say if a coach leaves for another job. 

 A negative is the disintegration of the traditional sports conferences, driven entirely by football and the desire for the aspiring programs in lesser conferences to get to the big time (the SEC and the Big Ten, mostly); one casualty was the Pacific Coast Conference (or whatever it was called at the end), which has as many national championships among its universities as any in the nation, but now the conference has completely disintegrated.  Another is the Big East, from which all the major universities departed, though it still remains in a truncated form. 

What remains, though, is March Madness, an indisputable and enduring success which has little to do with the power game of the big conferences--it does protect the little ones, who all get a berth in the tournament. I have no idea which college teams will emerge as the principal contenders for the national championship--there are a bunch of players who've moved around, or out, and the reality emerges gradually through the season which teams have the potential, which is largely around building a team game with effective defense.  College basketball is a coach's game. 

Effective defense was the key differentiator in last year's NBA playoffs, too, as the Indiana Pacers surprised everyone by making it to the Finals, only to be defeated by a team with both effective defense and a fully-emerged superstar in Shea Gilgeous-Alexander, MVP of the regular season and the playoffs as well. The Pacers suffered the loss of their star player, Tyrese Halliburton, to an Achilles tear in game 7 of  those Finals, which pretty much cooked their goose, despite the best efforts of the team's remaining players.

An Achilles tear happens in basketball, too often I suppose, but perhaps not unexpectedly given the extraordinary demands on overstretched players (height-wise) running, cutting and jumping.  It typically takes a full year to recover, and full recovery is never certain. Halliburton's not the only big NBA star who will miss the entire season due to injury: I mention also Jayson Tatum, star of the previous season's champion, the Boston Celtics, Fred Van Vleet, a veteran guard who was emerging as a star on the Houston Rockets, and Damian Lillard, another aging veteran guard (returning to the Trail Blazers after a failed experiment in Milwaukee).  The absence of those four will have dramatic effects on the team chemistry of the teams that lost those players.  

Here's a classification of the NBA teams by tiers, as we go into the new season next week: 

1.  Proven quality, still at the top of the game (injuries permitting):  Oklahoma City Thunder, with Gilgeous-Alexander ("SGA"); Denver Nuggets, with Nikola Jokic (former champions, took OKC to 7 games in the playoffs); Boston Celtics (former champions, even without Tatum, still formidable and should be favorites in the Eastern Conference)
2.   Star-quality mashups--this is the most prevalent group for would-be contenders, as the style now is to try to put together three top players with suitable sidemen, roughly in order of probability of success (defined as reaching the Conference Finals, i.e. the league playoff semi-finals):   Dallas Mavericks with Anthony Davis, super rookie Cooper Flagg, and unpredictable talent Kyrie Irving (now injured, probably just for the first half); New York Knicks (Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, O.G. Anunoby); Houston Rockets (Kevin Durant, rising star Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson); Los Angeles Clippers, with Kawhi Leonard, James Hardin, and Ivica Zubac (perennial disappointments, but one year...maybe); Los Angeles Lakers (Luka Doncic, Lebron James--now with an old-man's disease, sciatica--and Austin Reaves); Philadelphia 76ers (Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George, all likely to be injured at any one time);  San Antonio Spurs, now building rapidly to return toward the top (Victor Wembanyama, DeAaron Fox, and #2 draft pick Dylan Harper); Orlando Magic (Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, all top offensive threats); Sacramento Kings (Domantis Sabonis, Zach LeVine, Keegan Murray, with new addition of Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook); New Orleans Pelicans (Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy); and, still hanging around, the Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and mid-season addition Jimmy Butler).  Any of these teams could jell and threaten a run at the title. 
3.   One big star, plus adjuncts:  Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo); Atlanta Hawks (Trae Young), Detroit Pistons (Cade Cunningham); Minnesota Timber Wolves (Anthony Edwards); Phoenix Suns (Devin Booker); Miami Heat (Bam Adebayo); Memphis Grizzlies (Ja Morant); Toronto Raptors (Scottie Barnes); Indiana Pacers (without Halliburton, Pascal Siakam); and Cleveland Cavaliers (Donovan Mitchell).  All of these teams have had significant success in recent years, some winning the title and others making runs as recently as last season, but typically teams like this can get hot and make the playoffs behind their star but don't get far. It's quite likely they will be rebuilding soon, possibly by trading their big stars, or going for it by trying to add more talent (Indiana will just lay low for one season). 
4.  Rebuilding, or Not:  Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, Charlotte Hornets, Brooklyn Nets.  These teams don't look to be competitive.  Brooklyn has disbanded their previous mashup entirely and drafted five in the first round, who will all be playing.  The problem with building through the draft is that it typically takes 2-3 years before these teenage one-and-dones can reach their potential, if they ever do, and in the meantime soak up a whole lot of money. 

Baseball

This is the one US sport for which I exhibit true fan behavior, as in illogical emotional following of a team, in the context of general love for the sport and its history.* Here, I'm talking about the Cincinnati Reds+, the team for which I have been "tifo" (the Italian word for fan behavior, comes from the word for typhoid fever) since the early '60's.  Thus, I was totally there for their glorious run in the '70's, the legendary Big Red Machine (one of the top five starting lineups of all time), and their shocking World Series sweep of the proud Oakland A's in 1990 (thank you, Lou Piniella and the Nasty Boys reliever corps). 

The Reds made the playoffs, legitimately but just barely backing into them with a record just barely with more wins than losses, then lost in the preliminary "Wild Card" round to one of the best teams, the somewhat under-performing defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. For that defeat, I will root fervently for the Dodgers to go out, until they do, just as I root against the Yankees every year since they beat the Reds in the World Series in 1961 (!) Somehow, the Baltimore Orioles, who beat the Reds in 1970's Series, don't draw the same opprobrium from me, as they are similarly a smaller-market, rarely dominant team (though the Yankees haven't really dominated in the last 20 years, either). 

As for the rest:  well, the playoffs are down to four teams, none of which were clear favorites at my last sports take, but ended up with the best regular-season records due to strong second-half performance (the Phillies were the other team with a top regular season, but they faded in the playoffs due to the injury to their best pitcher, Zach Wheeler): the Milwaukee Brewers and Dodgers in the National League, and the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays in the American League. This over-representation of small-market teams is a nightmare for the World Series TV ratings, especially if the Dodgers and legendary superstar Shohei Ohtani go out. Several teams faded badly and left their fans sorely disappointed:  the Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, New York Mets, and Boston Red Sox come to mind.  At least the Reds did not disappoint, really, and they have the potential to improve and come closer to championship-level contention with just a good move or two. The Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians are two others that are comparably on the verge. 

I do have a bit of a beef with how baseball is going these days.  This discussion of the "Three True Outcomes":  strikeout, walk, and home run has the whole major-league game oversimplifying things tremendously.  The notion of "hit them where they ain't" (ancient wisdom for putting the ball in play, strategically if possible) has disappeared, despite the game's rulemakers seeking to blunt the trend toward player shifts to take away the prevalent field that batters would put their batted balls toward.  And bunting? Forgeddaboutit!  

One good trend, though, is the re-emergence of the stolen base, for those who can do it, because pitchers are so focused on getting that strikeout that they barely notice what the runners on base are doing.  So much so that their arms get weary after five-six innings, and straining of the pitching arm's ulnar collateral ligament has become an epidemic (leading to the so-called "Tommy John surgery" where they put a new one in, just below the elbow).  This bothers me much more than the innovations to juice up public interest, like the time clock for pitchers, limiting mound visits of catchers and coaches, and the "ghost runner" they put on second base in the extra innings, to make the games shorter (not used in the playoffs).  

As with the NBA, the major leagues show more and more players not born in the USA all the time.  I insist that this is a positive development for the sport, broadening its participation attractiveness beyond the US (the NFL shows no such inclination, despite the highly popular one-off games they set up abroad).  In the long run, though, we should be encouraging "norteamericanos" to take up the game when young, rather than the brutality and short careers of American football and the impossibly long odds of making it in the NBA (even for those blessed with height of two meters or more). 

*My previous true fan experiences were with University of Kentucky basketball--I wept at their loss in 1965 to Texas Western (now the University of Texas at El Paso) in the NCAA finals.  I later learned that I was totally politically incorrect in the history of the game, and should have eschewed the all-white Wildcats in favor the breakthrough all-black Texas Western team.  I'm still a UK backer, but I will also root for their in-state rival, University of Louisville:  both have provided major emotional lifts to me over the years, though I'm a bit perturbed U of L sold out and left the Big East for the second-tier Atlantic Coast Conference (the conference is really just second-tier in football, though one of the top ones in basketball).  

The other fan-like experience was when I was living in New York in the '80's and '90's, the era of Patrick Ewing, John Starks, etc. and I had part-share of season tickets.  They never quite won the championship then, and since have consistently for decades, though now they show some major signs of potential life.  Too late for me, though.  

+I was a youth in Louisville, Kentucky, just down the Ohio River from Cincinnati, named for the inspiring example of Cincinnatus, a Roman "dictator" (their word) from the fifth century B.C. who led a military victory then returned to private life, preserving for a while their republic.  We need some like him now!  In those days of the early Sixties, we just had the "Game of the Week" on TV (Dizzy Dean and PeeWee Reese, usually the Yankees, Dodgers, or Giants vs. somebody), so I was brought up listening to the Reds' games on the radio. 

 

Sports Take

 Watching the sixth game of the NBA Finals now.  Indiana hosting Oklahoma City, down 3-2.  A very good series, regardless of what the TV audience numbers may suggest.  Two small-market teams,  you know.  Indiana claims to be the Basketball State, and it has a considerable claim on it, but these Pacers have never won the NBA title.  Neither has the OKC franchise as the Thunder; there was a title for the old Seattle Supersonics (in the 70's) before they split for a warmer city. 

The teams that survived the star-filled opening rounds to reach the championships do not have the big-deal superstars. What they have in common is ferocious defense,,and coming into the playoffs healthy and playing their best.  The teams with the stars but lesser records that tried to turn it on for the playoffs came up short, the exception being the Denver Nuggets, led by MVP runner-up Nikola Jokic, that pushed the Oklahoma City Thunder to the edge before succumbing in seven. 

The MVP winner, Shea Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA, for short), has led OKC to the best regular-season record for the second year in a row.  SGA is a marvelous player and deserves all the praise that is now coming to him. This time, nothing less than the title will suffice, for him and his fiercely loyal teammates, and they have two chances to win it. 

The Thunder were a 6.5 point favorite, which I think is way too much of a point spread. Both teams have all the motivation for an exceptional effort, but the Pacers will have a frenzied crowd behind them, and their key player, Tyrese Haliburton, will play despite being injured--there was much speculation about that which could have influenced that spread. 

Note:  Went away for dinner, when I came back it was halftime and Pacers had opened up a 20-point lead.   Should be a great Game 7 now; Thunder favored despite this blowout loss. 

MLB 2025

 This is the time when teams make their strategic mid-season decisions, whether to make trades to strengthen for a stretch run, hoping also for the playoffs, or to sell off expiring contracts for more depth, or to adopt the infamous stand pat strategy. 

It's a week or so before the midpoint of the season, enough time that the teams very likely to make the playoffs have self-identified. They don't have that small-market problem: two from NYC, LA, SF, Philadelphia, Houston.  In terms of players, two sluggers from the largest TV markets have once again stood out with incredible half-seasons:  Shohei Ohtani for LA and Aaron Judge for the NY Yankees.  

There will be a team from the Central divisions from each league:  Detroit has established itself now in the AL as a legitimate playoff team, and the Chicago Cubs have invested profitably and sit well ahead of a host of contenders.  That leaves one Wild Card spot up for grabs in a broad scramble in each league, with the San Diego Padres the current leader in the NL and the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL, Those teams may be good enough to build a substantial lead down the stretch, but otherwise there could be five or more teams going for that last spot (assuming none of the leaders falter enormously). 

Those also-ran contenders are the ones with the tough decisions. Most of those scrambling teams are not going to make it to the playoffs, which is the minimum standard, the entry ticket for success. So, will they trade off veterans and just play for next year?  Very few of them, for their own reasons, but mostly to keep fan interest alive.  

My Cincinnati Reds are a good example. They are just barely a contender, with three teams ahead of them for the last NL Wild Card spot, but SD is only one game ahead of them. If they got hot, they could take it, going away.   More likely, though, their youthful inexperience and sore-armed pitchers will end up being a little short of the playoffs (again, assuming the Cubs don't fold).  The Reds have one of the most exciting young players in the majors, in Elly de la Cruz, and the question hanging over the team is whether they will do enough in the next couple years to keep him around. So, they won't do much to weaken or strengthn, they will add another pitcher or two, grab a couple guys off waivers.   They should be in contention, though, until mid-September or so.  And there's always next year!

FIFA Club World Cup 

 A great event is going on in the US that hardly anyone is noticing.  There is a 32-team soccer tournament with top pro teams from all regions, played at various US venues.  It's a sort-of warmup for the World Cup, which will be held in the US, Canada, and Mexico next year. It is almost criminal how little attention this quality competition is drawing.  From what I've seen, it's the backers of the foreign teams who are showing up for the games, while the North American teams of MLS draw little. 

I have seen a couple of games--one excellent one in which Al-Hilal, a Saudi team of high-end recruits, tied the famous Real Madrid, so many times European champion. Most of the games, though, are being televised on something called DAZN.  Right. 

Real is also the team with the most wins in the Club World Cup, five.  It has always been contested in a much different mode.  In the past few years, only a few teams--one per region--went to the finals in a big-money locale (Japan, Dubai). The series was held during the European season and was a bit of a distraction for the team sent from there; now it's during this fallow period between seasons, and I believe it will be held less often.  Sounds good!

Inter Ruptus  

When I arrived in Italy on my recent trip, the talk was of a possble "treble" (Britishism) for Inter Milan--winning the Coppa d'Italia, the "scudetto" of its top full-season competition, Serie A, and even the Champions Cup, the finale of the European Champions League of top-performing teams. Over the course of my trip, I saw them eliminated in the semifinals of the Coppa, then to lose the lead and end up one point behind Napoli in the Serie A standings.  Still, despite the evidence to the contrary, they came up with big wins in the Champions Cup knockout rounds (including Real Madrid, I believe).  They had the chance to more than make up for the recent shortcomings by winning the biggest club cup of all*.   Instead, they were comprehensively drubbed, 5-0, by PSG. 

Both these teams have rich and long pedigrees, but Paris Saint-Germain could still be considered an upstart, as they won without the trio of superstars (Messi, Neymar, and Mbappe) they had in recent years. Look out for France!  As for Inter (formally Internazionale), they don't generate the same kind of fanaticism as the teams in Naples, Rome, or even their crosstown rival, A.C. Milan.  Professional, disciplined, and this year anyway, disappointing.  (Note:  My Italian team is Fiorentina, classy mid-table losers who keep a close eye on rising Slavic players for their bread and butter, so I don't judge from a position of superiority.)

 

* Definitely more significant to fans, and thus to teams and players, than the FIFA Club World Cup that I discussed above, even though that could be considered a higher-level tournament.      

Own Goal

I have heard the phrase used a couple of times in the past 24 hours, with regard to the ongoing travesties being committed by Trump in the foreign policy arena. They were talking about Greenland, Panama, Canada, and now Jordan, even Israel (blindsided by Trump's loony Gaza initiative), and soon, Europe.  Basically, just stabbing our own allies--I'll admit he does it to their face, that being very much the point.

I think the metaphor is very much on target, though it may be somewhat unfamiliar to US.  It's a reference to soccer, when a goal is scored, not primarily due to the ball's vector into the goal coming from the attacking team but from the defenders.  There is some grey area, in describing the event, but it basically is defined by the defender having the last contact on the ball and in the process directing it toward the goal and away from the goalie.*  It's the kind of thing we need to understand if we hope to do a decent job hosting the World Cup in 2026 (about which I am less than enthusiastic at this point--recall that it will be hosted by three countries, not just the US but also our former friends Mexico and Canada). 

To go into it a bit more, I would divide own goals broadly into two categories:  the ones where the attacking team drove the ball near the goal, and the defender's accidental contact deflected it in, and the ones where the attacking team wasn't really involved at all--one defender hit it in, all by themself, or possibly with the accidental collaboration with a teammate.  

I would use the phrase more broadly in describing the Trump second term, and in the second sense.  We are doing it to ourselves.  In the case of our recent Presidential electoral own goal, the ball bounced off RFKJr, who supplied the 2% additional support Trump needed to win in a tight contest.  Basically, he's a winger who had no business being in front of the goal. 

The US has no business doing this thing trto ourselves.  We have the most wealthy nation, the most powerful nation, in the history of the world, and we are piddling around in our own half of the field, making bad passes and positioning ourselves incorrectly.  Think of the tariff nonsense, the things we are doing with our allies, with neutral and poorer countries with USAID, and with our own power structure, which we are assaulting indiscriminately, though it has mostly stood up so far. 

Despite the scoring we are producing against our own account, and in the favor of our adversaries, we have the ability to move the ball forward, with reforms that are bipartisan in their appeal and beneficial in their result.  We need some change in the personnel on the field, though. 

Continuing the discussion with the backdrop of football, this time the "American" version, I will briefly salute the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles, Donald Trump's least favorite team.  And the explosive attention given to provocative Kendrick Lamar, whose halftime show at the game highlighted his huge 2024 success and his creative power.  He wisely kept it only a little provocative and political for the huge TV audience.

And, since I am now moving toward a lighthearted vein in this post, let's consider this weighty question of semantics: 

Donald Trump:  Dickhead or Asshole? 

I begin with a rough-and-ready definition of an asshole as "a self-centered, aggressive person".  As always, my inspiration is the seminal essay** in the Village Voice by a Susin Shapiro in 1979 called "Creeps and Assholes: Character is Destiny".  She asserts that all people are one or the other, although there are crypto types who conceal their true nature.  Thus, there are many, many assholes, most but not all male.  

For me, a dickhead--the cruder version of the "meathead" insult popularized by Archie Bunker in All in the Family--is a special sort of mentally-deficient asshole, one whose consciousness is unable to recognize reality.  Its implied meaning is the replacement of some key portion of the brain with a penile implant. Thus, the assholism they project and embody is unfocused, incoherent, though still of hostile character. 

So, the answer, for my purposes, is both:  he's an asshole and a dickhead, but I prefer the latter as being a bit more precise.  

I have decided, though, that, partly for purposes of posting on less free Internet sites, I will not use the full word, but use "D------d" to refer to him.  It might appear an abbreviation for "Donald", but note the extra blanks in there.  

Revised Labels

I was afraid some might have concluded from my Sharpie-tized Gulf renaming that I endorsed the renaming, when the point was to shatter Trump's exclusive claim to the brand "America".  So let me now be clear about my view of it:   See the future new naming, by Executive Order, by Trump's worthy successor:
 

A

 

 

If I need to refer to this body of water in the future, it will be by this name, "Gulf of King D------d I" in honor of our Dicktater. 

 

The concern I am raising is the demeaning of the brand "America" by Donald Trump and his MAGA movement.  The word's use usually refers to this nation, the US of A, though America is something larger. ( I admit to being often guilty of this imprecise use of the term.)  There is a greater significance to America--and here I'm thinking particularly of the Europeans who came to this New Land (16th century term), though there were also major arrivals from Africa and Asia--the promise of the New Land, the opportunity to make a new start, the liberty represented by the idea that one can live where they want!  It doesn't apply exclusively to the US of A. 

My intention going forward will be to use America to refer to the lands of the Western Hemisphere, and US or US of A for this nation.  The trick, though, is to restrict "American" to a broad set of the populace of this side of the globe and find another word to refer specifically to "people of the US".  For now, it'll be just that phrase, or something to that effect.    

 

 *In theory, it could be the goalie who makes the last touch, but that is extremely rare.  Just failing to prevent a shot going in doesn't make an own goal.  It would have to be something like the goalie's miscue accidentally sending it in from a few yards out. 

 

** The article, like the Village Voice, is out of print, but an intrepid person with the handle of "ottoventa" dug it up and posted it, if you want to read the text. 

Developments

About the UHC CEO Assassination

As US assassins go, Luigi Mangione seems more intelligent than the others; in particular, he can articulate his thoughts.*  Some ladies seem to find him attractive.  If I were the authorities in PA and NY, I wouldn't rush the extradition, but rather bring forward the gun charges for which he was arrested--those are a slam dunk. I don't doubt that Alvin Bragg (my choice for Person of the Year, over Dickhead 2.0) will eventually get some kind of conviction in Manhattan, too, but going for the maximum might be a reach too far.  Mangione should have access to good lawyers and will have some kind of painful story to tell that might work to some extent. 

What I really want to talk about, though, is United Healthcare.  Yes, I'm a customer, I think--it's just Medicare's Part D, it costs little and currently provides comparably little benefit but whatever. Mangione is way off-base if he was pissed that he couldn't get all the treatment he wanted; that's such a First-World problem.  There is rationing of healthcare in all systems.  On the other hand, if it was the insurers who made his pain worse because they induced him to get sub-standard care--the result of which didn't look so hot on that X-ray associated with his back--then he had some beef with them.  But a gangsta approach does no one any good.  And, frankly, he was more Bernie Goetz+ than Unabomber material, but he might do well on the witness stand.

There's a real, enduring problem with our healthcare system, and it's called the profit motive of the middlemen involved.  UHC is probably the worst offender, though statistics can be biased easily depending on what is measured.  They are sucking the value out of the whole process with their relentless pursuit of more money.  They need to be more like--gasp!--utilities, with profit levels basically guaranteed but limited, strict measurement of reliability of customer treatment, and some mandatory regulatory oversight.  In fact, they should be utilities, full stop. We don't have to go all the way to eliminate them as profit-making enterprises, which was the real mistake of the Medicare for All movement.  The pharma/insurance lobby got its back up.  Not to mention all the jobs.

Trump's Cabinet and Other Nonentities

I don't get too worked up about the fate of the crappy nominees Trump has chosen, even for his Cabinet Secretary positions.  For the most part, anyway:  I do think RFKJr is the one who must be stopped, and I think his non-conforming policy positions on some subjects (not vaccines, but more like on corn oil, abortion pills, etc.) could end up sinking his chances with enough Republicans to deny him.

The ones like Gabbard or Hegseth, if they get the votes, it won't change things all that much.  There are overly well-developed organizations beneath them that will go around them, if they are too flaky. And can you imagine a Cabinet meeting of the clowns?  On the one hand, it would be a joke--a bad one--and wouldn't be a good use of time.  On the other, though, it would flatter POTUS--it better--so he might want to have more of them this time around. The betting notion would be the over/under on the number of Trump Cabinet meetings Rubio attends.  Preliminary line: 3.    

I don't mean to minimize the damage Trump will do, but he's got four years--two, really. This joke will get old, while still young.  And by "joke" I mean "scam". 

Playoffs:  College and NBA

I give some credit to the NCAA planners who have come up with a viable expansion of their college playoffs, which they roll out this year.  They are going from 4 teams (the critical cut happening at the #4/5 ranked team) to 12 teams (as it happens, that will be a cut from #10/11).  There is still not a great deal of satisfaction, particularly from the SEC, though their teams muddied up the waters by beating each other up somewhat randomly in the big games. Alabama is the team that gets gored this year, #11.  Seems strange, but Alabama did lose three games in its regular season.   

The correct answer is 14, as in 14 teams in the playoffs.  Two conference champions deserve byes, the SEC and the "Big Ten"+.  (The other two teams getting the byes were bad jokes I won't recite.) Those are the only two conferences that matter, and all the best football programs are migrating to them if they can. (Except Notre Dame, of course--they are special.)   Anyway, with 14 teams in the mix, the two losers from the conference championships get home field vs. #13 and #14, then the other eight teams play in neutral bowl locations and are seeded #5-#12.   That is where they will likely go before too long.  They are learning the lessons from the NCAA's other marquee event, the basketball championships (now both men's and women's), which have maximized participation to great effect. 

The NBA has hedged completely that critical cut by making two of them, one more absolute and the other more real.  Every competitive team's goal has to be to get into at least the top 6 of their conference, though 10 teams make the postseason in some form.  Teams 7-10 still have a shot in brief playoffs, though they will be disadvantaged.  It's a good design.  

They also seem to have done well, so far anyway, with their new early-season event the NBA Cup, now progressing through its second season.  It's created enthusiasm and the players have mostly bought in.  The result has been a lot of close, meaningful games with near-playoff atmosphere.  It's only the second season, though; the relationship between NBA Cup success and success in the real thing, the playoffs, has yet to be demonstrated convincingly.  The Lakers did win the Cup and reach the conference finals, though, last year; the latter was a surprise.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are the top team left in the final four, judging by regular season record; they will also likely be favorites in the playoffs, along with the Celtics, who did not make the final four, in the East. . 

 

*So to speak. I thank Ken Klippenstein for printing the manifesto in its entirety in his Substack, which the big boys chose not to do, though they selected quotes to support their hot takes. 

+ I will seek to refer to all college conference names other than the SEC in shock quotes, to draw attention to their transparent greed-seeking behavior. And because their names are such lies. Repeatedly.