Obit Dept.

Jesse Jackson- I remember the '84 Democratic campaign, when he made his most serious run at the nomination. As usual, I backed the wrong horse, John Glenn, who had the resume (first US man to circle the earth in space, elected twice senator from Ohio) but not the campaigning chops. I was young, but I think my instinct that the idea of a Democratic hero for President is more valid than ever, and it was always good.  

As for Jesse, I never believed he would win, in the way I did believe in Barack Obama as a viable black aspirant to win the White House. I appreciated Jesse's arguments, his classic ministerial manner of speech, though.  In the end, it was between Mondale and Hart, both obvious losers to Reagan.  Mondale was the won who ended up winning the loss.  

There was a lot more to Jesse, though, than his political candidacy.  He was a public moral goad to our country, ever since the days of MLK's assassination.  So he gets a lot of credit for the progress that has been made, and his loss signifies the tragedy of this moment. *

Robert Duvall - The most professional American (US) actor you could ever find. Acted in countless films, sometimes starring, sometimes in minor roles.  Always filled the role admirably; it seemed that he was that person, which left his true nature and feelings hidden. Most memorably put his stamp forever on the role of "consigliere"--counselor at-large--in the Godfather films. 

Lee Hamilton - a role model in so many ways, he personified characteristics like humility, wisdom, integrity, in his decades in Congress and in public service.  He may not be well-remembered anymore; I must do a little to deal with that and give my thanks. 

I followed his career from his earliest days in Congress in the '60's--he represented a part of Indiana of farms and medium-sized towns, and including Columbus, where I had politically active relatives.  He was a moderate Democrat who managed to get elected, by large margins, time after time as the political needle in Indiana moved steadily to the right.  (When he left Congress, his seat went to Mike Pence.) The area prospered, so that may have helped his ability to stay in place, but his specialty was foreign affairs and national security.  He was chosen to co-write the official review of 9/11 and its causes, which was and remains authoritative. 

Sonny Jurgensen - There was a time when I was a fan of the Washington Redskins.  That was the time when Jurgensen was their.   quarterback.  He made their team exciting, and that was the team we would normally get on our local game telecast (CBS, Virginia TV stations).  After him came George Allen as coach and Billy Kilmer as quarterback, and I walked away from them and their patriotic pretensions.  I have not turned back. 

Bill Mazeroski - Just slightly before my time as a conscious baseball fan, Maz's 9th-inning homer won the 1960 World Series for the Pittsburgh Pirates in a riotous seventh game against the New York Yankees.  He was more renowned for his fielding than his hitting, but he did have that one forever-memorable bomb, and it defeated the Yankees.  I respected that enormously; the next year (my first as a conscious baseball fan), the Yankees resumed their position on top against the team I follow, the Reds (preseason forecast coming soon). 

Mickey Lolich - I can't say that much, but I have a clear memory of that 1968 season.  Denny McLain won 31 games during the regular season, an incredible feat that may never be approached, let alone matched or exceeded.  Lolich was the #2 starter for those Tigers, but it was he who won three World Series games against the Cardinals, and their stud pitcher, Bob Gibson, who bested McLain.  Lolich had a better career than McLain.  

 

*I procrastinated on this post to the degree that I am finishing it while Obama, Biden, Clinton, Rev. Al et al. are commemorating Jesse (and tying it in with today's Drumpfenreich situation) so much better than I could.  Glory to Jesse!  

 

More Domestic Disgrace

 

 I am annoyed that the latest news from the US' political quagmire must take precedence over subjects that are much more fun, like sports, music, film, the beauty of this season, or more consequential, like preserving that which remains of our planet's beauty and bounty. Some subjects in the US' current disaster and recent escalation of violence, physical and verbal,  need to be addressed, even if their importance is transitory. 

Unforgiven 

In the above film, without a doubt one of the greatest in the history of the genre called "Westerns" the Clint Eastwood character makes the following statement as he rides to an expected violent confrontation in a lawless town: 

It's a hell of a thing to kill a man.  You take away all that he's got, and all that he's ever gonna have.

That is my main reaction to the murder of the man, Charlie Kirk, shot down as he engaged in political debate at a Utah college. It is the same I would have for anyone unjustly killed, like the students in too many schools, or other victims of politically-motivated violence in the US.

 I mourn for his family, and that he will never have the opportunity to redeem himself from his hateful, bigoted rhetoric.  Because I do believe it could have been possible; he seemed sincere in his beliefs, but he needed that critical human encounter that might have changed his mind and his tone. Enough about him, though.  I reject the attempt to make him a martyr for his cause, because his cause is not just.   And I never followed him or read any of his words when alive, so his death is no personal loss for me. 

One thing more I want to say:  we should not assume anything about why the killer did it, not until we have more evidence or capture the perpetrator.  I would submit that the shooter was either extremely lucky, or more likely a highly skilled marksman, given the range and angle indicated for the single shot that pierced Kirk's neck.  

We Should Let it Shut Down for Awhile 

The product of this Trump final term is all bad--all of it.  This, once again, is no surprise, and this is all part of his evil plan.  We who oppose it have no reason to facilitate its continuation. 

The Republicans in the Senate need seven Democratic votes (at a minimum) to continue normal operations of the Federal government beyond the end of September.  My position is that we will not call them, they must call us, and what they have to offer to get any support is a major change in direction, one that will force Trump to sign, or veto, and thus accept that his power will be diluted, or that he will own the shutdown that results. 

My suggestion, once again, is that in order for Democrats to fall in line with a resumption of government function, there must be a reversal of tax cuts for the rich, tax increases for consumers.   The best way to do most of this is through a bipartisan agreement to remove the cap on Social Security contributions, which end annually at about $160k of income per year. The resulting revenue increase will fund the program indefinitely and scale down the budget deficit problem.  Direction on tariffs should follow; Congress could give Trump some authority to set them, subject to Congress' oversight.  Finally, the measure must include language which restates what the Constitution demands: that money cannot be spent without Congressional authorization, and that spending approved by Congress and signed into law must be spent (with strictly limited exceptions). 

Democratic Senators who do not show toughness in this moment must be voted out. By us. 

More About Migration 

In a very recent post, I went over some of the basic, global principles that govern the movement of people, those that should apply, and those that will remain regardless of the obstacles. The current immigration policy violates all of them, but it is really the enforcement policy, with its violence and unnecessary cruelty, that makes us cringe. 

 We need to rethink the whole attitude toward our treatment of undocumented immigrants and stop the outrageous violations of our own laws.  If we have fair policies on the treatment of those here without the rights of citizens or of residency or visitation, if they are understood, defended by our citizens and implemented with respect for individuals and consistency,  then, maybe, we could move toward an intelligent strategy, one which will then end excessive migration into the country and allow for a true reckoning of those who reside here.  

The main point is that the US should not be the nation where people can burrow into hiding indefinitely without the knowledge of the authorities, which is the root of the issue today.  

We must accept true refugees from the Americas, seeking political asylum or escaping cataclysmic economic or environmental failures, for as long as is necessary, and we should apply sound judgment to those whose move here would be voluntary, not forced by circumstance, in order to enhance our society.  

 

A Wholly Admirable Person

I owe you readers a tome on the world beyond, but the passing of President Jimmy Carter today pushes my thoughts back to domestic "res publica". 

The chorus of eloquent praise to Carter and his legacy is heartwarming and unanimous. I will say that the eulogists had plenty of time to prepare their words, as he has been in declining health for several years, in hospice itself for two.  His mammoth accomplishments in life extended way beyond his four years in the White House, which were themselves highly significant in US and world history. I particularly liked President Biden's recommendation to young people to study Carter's life as a model.*

I'd like to focus on his second greatest triumph--after the Begin-Sadat peace accords in '78--his dramatic Presidential campaign and electoral victory in 1976.  I remember a lot of it very well, as it was my own first Presidential election. Eighteen-year-olds had just gotten the vote, which in those years of demographic upheaval seemed to have great importance. At least the disconnect between the draft age and the voting age had been addressed.  Carter was a surprise winner in the Democratic primaries; he was a first-term Georgia governor who had come from next-to-nowhere to win that office.  

In the general election, he had several advantages which allowed him to overcome the great advantage (greater back then) of the incumbency of President Ford in a close, fair election. Number one was that he was, correctly, viewed as a big change from the ruthless, unclean presidency of Richard Nixon, and his pardoner, the unelected Gerald Ford.  For the election he was able to present himself as honest, accomplished but humble, and intelligent.  The key moment of the campaign in one sense was Ford's misspoken claim that Eastern European nations were not dominated by the Soviet Union. The electoral key to Carter's victory, which Bill Clinton was later able to replicate, was to break up the Solid South for the Republicans, which none of the other Democratic Presidential candidates of the era were able to do. His win was a great relief for all from the ongoing culture wars focused around the generation gap, lingering after the antiwar protests and racial strife of the previous years, and a recognition of the rising power of the Baby Boom generation.  The result was close, with a margin similar to this year's one, but accepted by all. 

Carter resembled in many ways my ideal statesman, one who rose to the top through pure merit, who served without seeking personal gain, and then returned to a virtuous life after leaving public office.  He had ambitions, but they were about accomplishing things for the people, and his political ambitions ended up being cruelly crushed in 1980, due mostly to events beyond his control (Iran hostages, economic weakness), but also because he was willing to take chances, some of which were unpopular politically. Objections to them, from left and right, and a general sense that, while he worked tirelessly, his administration was not effective, mounted to the point that he was vulnerable politically. I personally was out of the country in 1980, so I missed most of the campaign, but I believed it impossible the voters could elect Ronald Reagan, and I was disappointed in how Carter's term was going. My vote that year, my first and last ever for a Republican (even if he ran as an Independent), John Anderson, was one I remembered and regretted forever after. 

You could say that he was too nice to be President of this country, and I would not dispute it.  If you look at the whole of his life though, he cannot be criticized. 

 Unacceptable:  That's What We Are

“Many people have come up to me, telling me they feel tired… maybe even resigned… That they’re not sure whether they have the strength, much less the desire, to stay in the fight. But let me be very clear: no one can walk away.”

— Vice President Kamala Harris, quoted by CNN.

I would like to look more closely at that closing line.  She is seeking to regroup support for yet another fight, that is her intent, but I want to challenge the assertion.  For example, it may be much wiser to--in the figurative sense--leave involvement behind, to drop a growing compulsion to take some action which one will regret, if they even have the chance to regret it later.  Perhaps some thought that way already, but the November election was the wrong time to withdraw. Better than surrendering to Trump, though, which uncountably many have done. 

I do concede one thing:  there is nowhere on this planet where one will be totally beyond the impact of this ugly phase of the domestic US political evolution. Personally,  I think it is altogether advisable to experience from abroad the stink a'risin'.. 

“The one thing I’ve always believed about public service, and especially about the presidency, is the importance of asking yourself: ‘Have we left the country in better shape than we found it?’ Today, I can say, with every fiber of my being, of all my heart, the answer to that question is a resounding ‘yes.’“

— President Biden, quoted by ABC News, at a holiday party for DNC staff. Courtesy of my good source Political Wire. 

My first reaction:  What do you mean by "we"?  Are you and your family leaving the country, too?  There shouldn't be too much concern for injustice imposed by the DOJ/FBI, given the Supreme Court's view of Presidential immunity, but on the other hand, you can't rely on those guys.

My second:  The country is not in better shape than 2021, though it's not his fault.  The clear evidence of that is/was Trump's electoral victory.  Perception is reality in this case, and, despite what anyone else may say, we are not in better shape to face our future, which is what matters.  The problem is not the economy, or the borders; it's in our minds. 

Yale Professor Timothy Snyder is perhaps way too much out there in the internet traffic these days:  who wants to hear about history, when we're making (breaking) it now?  (/s)  I will give him credit, though, for the verbal epiphany of "mump" to describe the Musk/Trump duopoly of power.  The sickness coming now has a good name, even if Elon has to hit the space highway soon:  this will be a case of The Mumps.

 

 *Note: J.C.  Just sayin'; he's something like a Protestant saint, if his religion had 'em. 

Developments

About the UHC CEO Assassination

As US assassins go, Luigi Mangione seems more intelligent than the others; in particular, he can articulate his thoughts.*  Some ladies seem to find him attractive.  If I were the authorities in PA and NY, I wouldn't rush the extradition, but rather bring forward the gun charges for which he was arrested--those are a slam dunk. I don't doubt that Alvin Bragg (my choice for Person of the Year, over Dickhead 2.0) will eventually get some kind of conviction in Manhattan, too, but going for the maximum might be a reach too far.  Mangione should have access to good lawyers and will have some kind of painful story to tell that might work to some extent. 

What I really want to talk about, though, is United Healthcare.  Yes, I'm a customer, I think--it's just Medicare's Part D, it costs little and currently provides comparably little benefit but whatever. Mangione is way off-base if he was pissed that he couldn't get all the treatment he wanted; that's such a First-World problem.  There is rationing of healthcare in all systems.  On the other hand, if it was the insurers who made his pain worse because they induced him to get sub-standard care--the result of which didn't look so hot on that X-ray associated with his back--then he had some beef with them.  But a gangsta approach does no one any good.  And, frankly, he was more Bernie Goetz+ than Unabomber material, but he might do well on the witness stand.

There's a real, enduring problem with our healthcare system, and it's called the profit motive of the middlemen involved.  UHC is probably the worst offender, though statistics can be biased easily depending on what is measured.  They are sucking the value out of the whole process with their relentless pursuit of more money.  They need to be more like--gasp!--utilities, with profit levels basically guaranteed but limited, strict measurement of reliability of customer treatment, and some mandatory regulatory oversight.  In fact, they should be utilities, full stop. We don't have to go all the way to eliminate them as profit-making enterprises, which was the real mistake of the Medicare for All movement.  The pharma/insurance lobby got its back up.  Not to mention all the jobs.

Trump's Cabinet and Other Nonentities

I don't get too worked up about the fate of the crappy nominees Trump has chosen, even for his Cabinet Secretary positions.  For the most part, anyway:  I do think RFKJr is the one who must be stopped, and I think his non-conforming policy positions on some subjects (not vaccines, but more like on corn oil, abortion pills, etc.) could end up sinking his chances with enough Republicans to deny him.

The ones like Gabbard or Hegseth, if they get the votes, it won't change things all that much.  There are overly well-developed organizations beneath them that will go around them, if they are too flaky. And can you imagine a Cabinet meeting of the clowns?  On the one hand, it would be a joke--a bad one--and wouldn't be a good use of time.  On the other, though, it would flatter POTUS--it better--so he might want to have more of them this time around. The betting notion would be the over/under on the number of Trump Cabinet meetings Rubio attends.  Preliminary line: 3.    

I don't mean to minimize the damage Trump will do, but he's got four years--two, really. This joke will get old, while still young.  And by "joke" I mean "scam". 

Playoffs:  College and NBA

I give some credit to the NCAA planners who have come up with a viable expansion of their college playoffs, which they roll out this year.  They are going from 4 teams (the critical cut happening at the #4/5 ranked team) to 12 teams (as it happens, that will be a cut from #10/11).  There is still not a great deal of satisfaction, particularly from the SEC, though their teams muddied up the waters by beating each other up somewhat randomly in the big games. Alabama is the team that gets gored this year, #11.  Seems strange, but Alabama did lose three games in its regular season.   

The correct answer is 14, as in 14 teams in the playoffs.  Two conference champions deserve byes, the SEC and the "Big Ten"+.  (The other two teams getting the byes were bad jokes I won't recite.) Those are the only two conferences that matter, and all the best football programs are migrating to them if they can. (Except Notre Dame, of course--they are special.)   Anyway, with 14 teams in the mix, the two losers from the conference championships get home field vs. #13 and #14, then the other eight teams play in neutral bowl locations and are seeded #5-#12.   That is where they will likely go before too long.  They are learning the lessons from the NCAA's other marquee event, the basketball championships (now both men's and women's), which have maximized participation to great effect. 

The NBA has hedged completely that critical cut by making two of them, one more absolute and the other more real.  Every competitive team's goal has to be to get into at least the top 6 of their conference, though 10 teams make the postseason in some form.  Teams 7-10 still have a shot in brief playoffs, though they will be disadvantaged.  It's a good design.  

They also seem to have done well, so far anyway, with their new early-season event the NBA Cup, now progressing through its second season.  It's created enthusiasm and the players have mostly bought in.  The result has been a lot of close, meaningful games with near-playoff atmosphere.  It's only the second season, though; the relationship between NBA Cup success and success in the real thing, the playoffs, has yet to be demonstrated convincingly.  The Lakers did win the Cup and reach the conference finals, though, last year; the latter was a surprise.  The Oklahoma City Thunder are the top team left in the final four, judging by regular season record; they will also likely be favorites in the playoffs, along with the Celtics, who did not make the final four, in the East. . 

 

*So to speak. I thank Ken Klippenstein for printing the manifesto in its entirety in his Substack, which the big boys chose not to do, though they selected quotes to support their hot takes. 

+ I will seek to refer to all college conference names other than the SEC in shock quotes, to draw attention to their transparent greed-seeking behavior. And because their names are such lies. Repeatedly. 

Quick Hits

 WC Round

(Baseball) 

By this I do mean messy, needing maintenance, perhaps an entry key.  But it is a facility that can be used. 

2 out of 3 for the lower-seeded team in these major-league basball playoffs is essentially just winning a series on the road against a good team.  They have all done it, and it doesn't create unusual pressure--except to win the first game.  

The Tigers showed it best with their quick sweep of the team I picked as part of my (un-bet) quinella for the World Series, the Houston Astros.  The 'stros run of 7 straight appearances in the ALCS (the League final series) ended quickly to a team that just didn't care. 

Contrast that a bit with the struggles of the Orioles to do anything in the post-season, despite dominant performance in the regular season. They definitely seem a bit overwhelmed, once again, in a pressure situation before the home crowd, a reward they earned with a strong second-place finish. (Game in progress at this moment). 

The other team I had in the proposed bet (at something like 15-1, with a huge margin for the house vs. the implied odds) was the San Diego Padres, a team not quite as hot as the Tigers (or the Astros were, for that matter) but one that finally may have its act together, healthwise.  They were the only team of the four home teams across the two leagues to win their critical first game. 

If the Royals complete their two-game sweep of the Orioles, it will be #5 vs. #2 (Cleveland) and #6 (Tigers) vs. #1 Yankees in the ALDS (Division Series, or league semifinal series).  These will at least be 3 out of 5, with home-field advantage only really in a decisive Game 5--not too many go that far, usually.  One would think with those one-sided seeding matchups the winners of that next round would be predictable.  I doubt it--I still think there will be a team that doesn't get a bye (i.e., not #1 or #2 in their league) that will make the World Series--but my hypothetical bet is already in the WC toilet (to repeat myself0.

V.P. Debate

Vance put a bandage on his ticket's bleeding. Walz got ifinn a potential knockout blow at the end, keeping J.D. from a 15-round win on points, dodging the whole time. It happens. .
Best line of the night for Walz: "Fact-check Donald Trump".

Michael Steele called Vance "Blue", which was a cute sort of insult, but I have to say he should be addressed as "Yo Disk!"

Regarding the "mexican gun cartels" comment, that was actually an opening Walz missed. The gun trafficking is primarily in the opposite direction, to Mexico, because the US has more access to them. Vance slipped it in unchallenged.

--My comment on Political Wire, 11 pm.  

EBK-PRB

In 1963, Pete Rose was my favorite baseball player.  Radio was the primary way I was experiencing the game, and Rose was the hit of the broadcasts--taking an extra base, finding the hole for a base hit, filling the hole on defense (at second base)--he seemed to be everywhere for the team, which was experiencing a high point (not quite World Series level, though).  

In the 70's, he was an integral component of the historically successful Big Red Machine, now at third base due to the essential addition of Joe Morgan.  During this time, it became apparent to me that his quirks (flat-top haircut, running to first after a walk) were part of a sociopathic nature, shown also by his affinity for the likes of Nixon, Marge Schott, etc. 

He became a justifiable target for targets and jokes in his latter career, when he could no longer command a league-leading level of batting average, and his Sixties ambition of being "the first $100,000 singles hitter" had transformed into the quest to win one of the league records then viewed as untouchable:  Ty Cobb's 4,191 safe hits.  Ty Cobb, the similarly behaviorally-challenged star hitter of the early 20th-century (not the former Trump lawyer--no relation, I hear?).  Rose hung on in active duty several years as a replacement-level player to get there, but at least he could choose his hitting matchups for himself as player-manager some of the time during the end. 

That was the period when he screwed the pooch, his gambling habit becoming an addiction that sent him way over the line into prohibited behavior--betting on any baseball game.  He was rightly banned from active participation in the game after that--for life.  For Rose, who had little real value in his life beyond baseball and betting, it hurt a lot. 

Worse for him in the longer run was being eliminated from participation in the voting of the writers for the Baseball Hall of Fame.  This somewhat exclusive club--those inducted, the writers (a floating bunch, over time) who vote on its members, and those ad hoc groups which pick others who never get voted in (the Negro Leagues representatives being the most prestigious of those sets of selected members).*--chose to abide by the decision that Rose's behavior was disqualifying. 

Rose has passed away now. I recognize that my own view is biased:  I have long advocated for his induction, and even for more serious consideration of some other Hall-worthy players "cancelled" from membership (due to steroid use, admitted or alleged) despite clearly having met the performance levels.  I would now say it is time for him to be admitted in, posthumously.  Despite his unique (an once again, seemingly unchallengeable) record, he's not one of the all-time greatest, but he would qualify as the 25th-man, the utility guy, on the all-time team.  The "lifetime" ban has expired!

More Online Odds Discussion

Comparison of my odds on outcomes political vs. PredictIt:  Harris 65-35 vs. PI's 55-58 to 45-48 (!); Democrats winning the House 55%, PI (no entry); Democrats holding the Senate 18%, PI (no entry).  Perhaps the subject of a later posting will be that it is not now so clear to me there will be an (overall) strong turnout result, though it will be strong in many areas.  NY/CA drive is probably more specific than statewide.

*Of course, they are not officially of the same level, but the Executive Board and the writers are really the ones with control.

The Politics of Joy

You will surely hear the phrase more times as journalists try to chronicle the sensational roll-out of the Harris-Walz ticket through the Democratic party convention.  It is accurate, and Walz has presented it to us in his praise of VP Harris' gift of joy in rising to meet her great challenge.  I don't think he's declared the phrase as such, either, so let's get that out of the way. 

We shouldn't take it too far, though:  after all, it is the theme given to the failed candidacy of another VP nominee selected under special circumstances, the "happy warrior" Hubert Horatio Humphrey (HHH).  That itself is a title which both VP Harris and Gov. Walz would gladly assume. 

It's the emotion of the season, and there's plenty of need for it. Wall Street failed to intrude upon it with a sizable single-day drop, Trump and Vance flail ineffectively in the face of it, collapse of the peace initiative in the Mideast cannot break through it, though it may try. 

 We must resolve, in the face of it all, to

 Learn from history and elect Humphrey, not Nixon, this time.

 Do not let the tragedy of '68 become the farce of '24.

There is no better, nor easier, way to express politically this long-awaited euphoria than through the high drama of the summer Olympics we have been able to experience right now. There is almost too much--even if we just limit ourselves to gold medal winners just from Team USA.   There is no reason to limit our excitement just to the winners of gold, nor just those competitors from our country. 

That nationalism--the inevitable need to take our side, to the detriment of the other--is the part of the Olympics I like least, despite my pride and my rooting interest for our team.  At least I can say that they have been so busy on the network they haven't had time to bore us with the national anthem, over and over again. Though I'm glad I have some chance to avoid it,  I have some sympathy for those who have to cover it, anyway.  I would choose to exempt everyone from enduring it until the final day of the meet, in the case of swimming, gymnastics, track and field.   That would be something, hearing all the different national anthems of the various countries of the winners, with all the medal winners present. 

Anyway, Cole Hacker. Katie Ledecky.  LeBron James. Quincy Hall. Leon Marchand. Kenneth Rooks.  Grant Holloway. Noah Lyles. Simone Biles. Mijan Lopez Nunez.  Daniel Roberts. Grant Fisher. Kristen Faulkner. Hampton Morris. Rai Benjamin  Shinnosuke Oka. Matt Anderson. and Roje Stona, of course.  Those were just the ones whose exploits I saw, live (or I thought so:  those network guys are tricky, but nothing in prime time was live). 

To sum up this year's Olympics experience, I would use the words greater depth and breadth.  More sports have more competitive teams or individuals.  Similarly, the USA team broadened the range of events in which they were competitive.  And, of course, Paris.  The Olympics should settle upon a set of 8-10 cities with all the facilities and history of hosting (maybe adding one in Africa, somewhere safe?), and Paris should be one of them. 

What's Missing in this Olympics? 

Well, baseball.  Also softball.  Partly, the problem is that the Olympics event is in the middle of the baseball season, but the Winter Olympics manages it with ice hockey, and  MLB could be induced to allow international players to take a couple weeks off. 

 I watched some of several of the less-celebrated sports:  Archery showed amazing skill, table tennis matches were long but often dramatic, with great audience support. Water polo is a brutal game, like wrestling but underwater, and it is one of the games in which the shooter has the edge over the goalie.  Same is true of team handball, which is a lot like basketball but with a much bigger goal. The other extreme is hockey (also known as field hockey), where the ball hugs the ground and the sticks are great for ball control but not for beating the goalie.Tennis (also known as lawn tennis, though they played on clay in Paris) got a raw deal from the network.  Yes, matches are long, but there were a lot of channels with very little of interest going on.  (The best TV of the Olympics was in these off-channels, where they would use as filler after events some shots from the pool of critical moments in matches, and then with interviews with medal winners, without narration.)

As one who loves the long, lead pass, team handball sometimes has some nice ones, but it seems that mostly it is breaking down defenses in set positions.  Water polo has some nice one-touch cross-pool passes, executed with one hand above the surface, but the long passes just kind of end up sitting on the water.  The sport which would please me most if it were added for the Los Angeles Olympics would be Ultimate Frisbee.  It's a lot like some of the other sports (like soccer) where skllful passing moves the "ball" down the field.  Because of the frisbee's aerodynamic qualities, it lingers in the air longer, allowing some incredible lead passes. Like in football, just as long, but better.

A Little More on Baseball

 About 30% of the regular season remains.  Enough time for a lot to happen, but the scope of possible outcomes is limited by performance year-to-date. 

It's now understood that, in the current expanded playoff format, just making it into the final 12 (six in each league) is the main task.  Any of those teams can make it into the World Series by getting hot and getting some good starting pitching in short playoff series.  The bye and home-field advantage that the top two division winners get don't seem to provide much advantage against a hot wild-card team that has already taken a series. 

Still, it's better to be safely in the playoffs; the teams with their spot booked can experiment with lineup changes and get their pitching rotation exactly as they want.  Not many teams are in that position, though: the Phillies, Brewers and the Dodgers have division leads in the NL which should hold up, while the two  top AL records,  AL East teams the Yankees and Orioles, should have safe berths, though the division title remains a close contest.. That's about it .

Recent weeks have produced some hot teams that may monopolize most of the remaining wild card slots.  In the NL West, the Padres have the team and have emerged as the leading wild-card candidate, with last year's World Series runner-up, the Diamondbacks, close behind.  That would leave one spot, and about seven or eight teams trying to get it.  The Braves should be favored for it, but the Mets could take it.  NL Central also-rans the Cardinals and Pirates are getting attention for rebounding from poor 2023 seasons and playing at least .500 ball (winning half their games), but they will probably need to be 8-10 games above to make it.  In the AL Central, the Royals and Twins are the teams that have emerged as leaders for the second and third wild cards, even challenging the Guardians (nee Indians), who've led the division by a goodly margin most of the season.  In the AL West, surprisingly weak performance means only one team is likely to make it, and that team is surely going to be the Houston Astros, with early leaders the Mariners and last year's World Series champion Rangers left out. 

It's been an exciting season, with two standout slugging performers:  Aaron Judge for the Yanks and Shohei Ohtani for the Dodgers.  Many records are in danger from those two. 

I will close with mention of Billy Bean, a former major leaguer who became a groundbreaking baseball team General Manager.  He helped bring serious statistical approaches to the management of major-league baseball teams.  I will leave the fuller eulogies for Bob Costas, or better, Michael Lewis, who studied his accomplishments more. 

Note:  Some updates added in Comment 8/24....

This Is The Day...

 of our maximum discontent.

There is literally nothing I will allow myself to watch tonight, so I have sworn not to turn it on.  (That includes streaming, which I basically don't do anyway.)

Not even the All-Star Game, which in baseball terms is something less than the real thing--that was over a couple nights ago, providing a few moments of relief.  Regular baseball action starts back up tomorrow.   

The Cups--of Europe and of the Western Hemisphere--of soccer have concluded--congratulations to Spain and Argentina.  It was a big test, before the World Cup in 2026, for coaches' ability to put functional teams together.  Some passed the test, others will lose their jobs. 

Wimbledon is over.  Alcaraz established himself as King of the Hill, though there will be a multi-sided effort to dethrone him at the US Open in a couple of months.  Sinner is still the points leader, but Carlos is on the warpath.  On the women's singles side, chaos continues to reign at Wimbledon.  Swiatek hasn't figured the grass out quite yet, and Sabalenka bowed out. The title went to Barbora Krejcikova of Czechia, for her this was not her first chaotic rodeo victory. 

The Olympics - not yet. I'm not so hardcore that I have to watch NBA Summer League. MLS (Major League Soccer) doesn't tend to hold my interest for long. 

And then there's the news, which I am strenuously avoiding, all week.  Not interested in watching the selected Republican bootlickers, nor in seeing the nominee's speech, or the discussion of it before, during, or afterwards.  I am certain that Trump profiled his new con:  pretending to be a normal political candidate in a constitutional republic.  Don't believe it. 

As for President Biden, he took up the challenge to go out on the road and campaign actively for a few days, as I suggested.  The result was Covid, and I am now of the opinion that it is time for him to admit his limitations and bow out of the race (though he does not need to resign his position). He should vigorously endorse his VP Kamala Harris and offer his ongoing counsel to the Democrats, particularly should they win and hold the White House.  With our thanks.  

I have thought a bit about the attempted assassination of Trump over the weekend.  As for the young Republican incel gun nut who shot at him, nicking Trump's ear but killing one in the audience and wounding two others, he was following in the footsteps of other fools who think their act of stochastic violence would provoke a general mass uprising.  It's failed many times before.  Clearly, there was a slip-up by the Secret Service and local authorities allowing someone with a long rifle to post up less than 200 yards from the stage. 

Say, Hey!

The photo here is of the 1964 Strat-o-Matic card for the great baseball star Willie Mays, who died recently at the age of 93.  The card, frankly, was the main way I knew him:  he was playing on the West Coast then, and the Game of the Week (the only game on TV) was usually the Yankees and someone, and the SF Giants came around to Cincinnati (my team) about once a year.  1964 was a very good year for him, near his top (1965 was his second Most Valuable Player year), as he led the league in homers with 47.  His .296 batting average was near his lifetime average.  He was consistently at the top of the league from 1954 (when he returned from military service) until the late '60's.  

We saw more of him later, as he began to decline.  He was in a race with Henry Aaron for the second-most home runs for a while, but he retired and Aaron stayed on for several more years, eventually catching Babe Ruth for the all-time lead.  On the subject of the All-Stars, he was named 20 times to it. Certainly one of the greatest of our lifetimes. 

I will mention here the comedian Bob Newhart, who passed away even more recently at the age of 94.  I remember the early version of him, when he did a sort of nerdy, white-guy stand-up comedy (air-traffic controller sketch?).  What most will remember of him, though, was his starring role in the Bob Newhart Show, much later, when he played a normal guy reacting with good humor to his unusual neighbors (in Maine, was it?). His deadpan, accompanied by laugh track, was a good formula for situation comedy for several years. 

 

 

Part II: The International One

 Chuck, Well-done! 

I salute Sen. Majority Leader Schumer in his call for new elections in Israel. 

 I respond to those who object to interference in another nation's affairs by pointing to interference in past political affairs here by the same unprincipled man now heading Israel's government. The extremist nature of Netanyahu's coalition is temporarily overshadowed only by the necessities of active warfare, but the conduct of neither does honor to Israel.   They take their cues from us, or vice versa; we need to seek what's right from one of our closest allies to be true to ourselves.

There is also the fact that Schumer--to be plain-spoken about it, a classic New York Jewish politician--is the one to make the call. If friends can't call friends, who can they call? Schumer's loyalty to Israel over the years, through thick and thin, is unquestionable by anyone of any stripe. 

Is anyone in Israel listening?  I think the answer is 'Yes'.  For one thing, they know that President Biden, who is playing this very cagily, could have stopped Schumer from making the statement at this time. His response upon receiving prior notification appears to have been, "Go ahead.  Knock yourself out."  (Schumer taking that as permission...)

I have only one question:  To whom is this call addressed?  Did he miss the Benny Gantz visit?  Was he the only one who did (besides Biden, who dodged it)?  In my view, the intended recipients are Schumer's contacts among Likud, who are "ghosting" that call for now.  One more humanitarian disaster is still required. 

I heard the contours of the newly-proposed deal reported tonight.  These seem more reasonable for a partial hostage release and six-week ceasefire, with the threat of an (approved) Rafah offensive by Israel, accompanied by some (panic) evacuations of civilians hanging over the head if Hamas doesn't take it.  I think Hamas will do so, once the appropriate ratio of prison release is determined (somewhere around 20:1 has been empirically observed, so far, in deaths; that provides a rough estimate). 

If the Hamas counter-offer after temporary ceasefire is release of all hostages for permanent ceasefire, Israel should take it, even if the terms require relaxation of the current siege. (This Netanyahu government wouldn't take it, of course, either way.  Thus the Schumer ask.)  When and if Hamas violated the ceasefire again, Israel could continue the liquidation campaign, and they would have the hostage situation finally ended.  That is why Hamas will never release all the hostages they control.  

The outcome obtained by Israel so far is the middle result:  not the complete removal of the Hamas leadership, which was the stated war aim, but more than the minimal one of making Northern Gaza into a buffer zone, buying critical moments of time for their defense against future launched attacks from Gaza. Effectively, they have a siege around the remaining parts of Hamas-dominated Gaza, as long as the Rafah border with Egypt holds.   

My conclusion, and Schumer's, is that there is no way forward, no partners for enduring peace. Time to shake things up, politically.  What he really is looking forward to is a parliamentary coup, a change in authority, with Netanyahu out as PM, but it is slightly more diplomatic to ask for new elections, which if they occurred, would produce the desired result, but much too slowly.  (Schumer also called for changes in the West Bank and in Gaza.)  Gantz' message is that he would still need to liquidate Hamas if he were to lead the government.  

Ukraine Slava!

Winter in the plains of Ukraine is no time for heavy ground maneuvers.  There has been a season of hunkering down, while the Russian artillery and missiles faced less defensive interception or retaliatory strikes. That period has to end soon; the clock is ticking.  Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to find the formula to allow the foreign aid bill to get approval without doing anything.  Very laissez-faire! Doesn't quite get 'er done, though...

Europe is filling in, for the moment.  Even the rightists are seeing the light, as Hungary approves Sweden's joining NATO and Georgia Meloni's far-right Italian government is fully backing Ukraine's cause.

Immigration

If you think this belongs in the forthcoming domestic affairs post, I choose to differ.  Migration is a worldwide problem, and the global nature of the challenge is beginning to be felt more acutely on our southern border now--before, it seemed just a hemispheric problem (which it is, also).  I do think there is a hemispheric solution to the problem, one that requires active participation with Mexico for mutual benefit.  It would look like massive expansion of a US consulate in one of the northern Mexican cities, Monterrey, maybe. There is precedent for that kind of cooperation, but it's the kind of idea that doesn't get traction.  The only kind of workable solution moves the problem off our shore/border, but we pay for (cheaper) services in the chosen focus location.  

 

 

Viewing The Trumpian Menace from the Outside

Any sensible foreign government should have considered both of the two main outcomes of this election and what their national interest should require for each. If one outcome is particularly bad for their country, it only makes sense to do what they can to affect the outcome, only being careful that they not have it backfire and produce a contrary effect. 

For the most part, though, it neither makes sense to commit too much for the Biden win strategy, nor for a Trump one.  Best not to commit.  Thus the Taiwan's election led to a clear status quo outcome, Xi has pulled back a little from his aggressive posture, and the great democracy of Indonesia takes a more studied distance from the pro-Obama Widjojo days. Even Putin knew enough to say he preferred Biden because he is more predictable: unarguable, yet showing respect for the internationally-infamous Drumpfen unpredictability.  Japan, India and Korea seem more concerned with domestic affairs--well, why not?  So are we. 

That seems to be the strategy with regard to mitigating climate change, every nation doing its own thing, the combined effect being neither synergistic nor sufficient. I won't deny progress is being made, both in developing alternative energy sources and in raising awareness.  But the global temperature is progressing on the graph toward the upper-right corner, too, as is the graph of major serious weather events. . 

More elections coming all over, I hear.  In the U.K., the ruling Conservative party is in a position similar to Netanyahu's, with a serious parliamentary drubbing forthcoming when the election is finally called. In England's case, though, there's a statutory requirement that will make it happen this year. It will be interesting to see how the Labour party will change the path, seemingly irreversible, that is steadily moving London away from relevancy.  Argentina threw in its lot with a major shake-up in a Trumpian direction, but that is an extreme reaction with plenty of popular frustration behind it.  

The Summer Olympics

The Paris Olympics will be held this summer, after the Republican convention and before the Democratic one. I am hopeful they will provide a welcome distraction from the political wars. So far, I've heard too little about the preparations for them, either here or there.  I did hear a few sports (softball, baseball among them) are not being retained; I've heard each sport federation is making its own rules on transgendered, I've heard those Russians who haven't failed their drug tests will be competing under the Olympics flag, not their own. That's about it.  I haven't heard much about the USA teams in specific sports.

 I'm very idiosyncratic about this, both a strong supporter of the Olympic ideal and a fervent opponent of the way it is done with all the nationalism, which is contrary to that ideal.  It is possible to make the centralized sport federations able to conduct competition qualification, but the block to that is that the resources would have to be provided by nations, perhaps through the medium of the United Nations.    This will no doubt feature in my upcoming listing of my brilliant ideas so far not picked up by anyone....

The Oscars

A bit of a stretch, I admit, to consider the awards of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, basically a LA.-centered bunch, in the international affairs category.  There were several awards given outside of the US film center, once again--let us not forget the recent-year successes of "Parasite" and "Everything, Everywhere, All at Once"--but the liberal US coastal elite judgments were clearly present. As an electoral body, quite predictable. 

"American Fiction" winning the adapted screenplay suited the self-referential critical Zeitgeist, for sure. So did the award to local comeback hero Robert Downey, Jr. for his role as the McCarthy-ist foil to Oppenheimer, post-bomb.   Above all, note the John & Yoko-inspired animated short winner calling for "Peace Now" (Sean Lennon on the scene)--I preferred the French "Pachyderme", if one wants to go deeper. 

The award for documentary feature to "20 Days in Mariupol" showing the brutality of the war in Ukraine also showed that liberal sensibility, which now increasingly shows some awareness of the world beyond. (My point being that the show tells.)  There was also the Godzilla movie getting the award for effects, the Mayazaki film winning the animated feature, and the four awards to the itinerant sci-fi costume drama "Poor Things", the movie that finally showed what Yorgos Lanthimos could achieve. "Zone of Interest" dominated the foreign film lane, a bit of a ruse for the British production, but it was performed and filmed on location at Auschwitz in the original languages (German, Polish, Yiddish), which is a real credential to be foreign to us.  Finally, I mention "Anatomy of a Fall", the one that got away (likewise, I couldn't catch it at the cine.).

To close, we transition through the shocker highlight of the Oscars' Obit show, the face of Alexei Navalny.  With the eponymous documentary feature of the previous year an Oscars winner, they earned the right. 

Shocking but not surprising, Navalny's death was a challenge to the world, a pure expression of ruthlessness. Navalny will be taking the cherished position in that square of political martyrs that many cities in Russia now have. There are others that are due to have places in this pantheon. But not just yet, it seems:  Putin may have been faking mortal health symptoms.  He has no doubt told his doctors to keep him alive until he can clinch a victory in 2025, though he's not sure which President he has to defeat to do it.  When that doesn't happen, he will wither up and give out.

 

News of the World

Yes, Virginia, There is Climate Change - It''s hard to imagine how anyone could doubt it after this summer.  July was the hottest month in recorded history, but there is more than just the "global warming", which itself is real enough.  

I had always thought the global recognition of a changed climate would come through high winds, experienced globally, something like the Jet Stream coming down from the higher atmosphere into our level.  Like the rising temperature, the high winds are a natural expression of increased energy released into our closed ecosystem from carbon sequestered from the remains of living things hundreds of million years ago.  We see that uncontrollable wildfires are occurring in many parts of the world, the combination of weather conditions and troubled natural vegetation.  These should be expected to continue, releasing even more carbon into the atmosphere.  

From Baseball - TV broadcasters have an annoying habit of referring to players/teams as being the best (or worst) "in baseball", when they mean in our Major Leagues.  As if there were no other games being played worthy of the name "baseball".  Anyway: 

Big Reds - There is a revival of fortunes this year for my team, the Cincinnati Reds.  They are currently slumping due to a severely-weakened starting rotation, so not quite as hot as a few weeks ago, when they battled for the Division lead.  It is time to be realistic:  they passed on trading any of their rising infield prospects and arriving stars for more pitching, and we are seeing the result.  They have time to rectify their rotation for 2024 and make a real run for it.  In the meantime, my prediction was for third place, and I'm OK with that this year.  If they do make the playoffs, probably as a Wild Card, I don't expect much at all. 

Still Astros-Braves:  They are the best teams in their leagues.  Of course, anything can happen in short baseball series.  The dangerous Dodgers are getting their star pitchers back, and the Padres, Brewers, and the AL's Angels all have enough to make surprise runs. The Cubs have caught the Reds and have similar prospects, short and long. There should be some AL East team opposing the Astros in the ALCS, though Texas, who has given Houston a run for it, could make things interesting in the AL semis (for the Orioles--the team I always fail to consider--or Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, etc.)  As always, I warn to watch out for the team that gets in as the final (third) Wild Card--it will have just survived a tense competition and will be in peak form. Meanwhile, the top two teams in each league will face the challenge of using a week off to prepare rather than lose their edge.  Those are pretty much set with the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and either Texas or Houston. 

Meanwhile, we must all pause and consider the greatness of Shohei "Unicorn" Ohtani and his 2023 season.  The question arises if there has ever been any season that rises to his performance, as there is no doubt there has never been one like his, for its combination of hitting and pitching. 

Bottom line on the rules changes:  the game absorbed them fairly well.  The near-shift replaced the shift, and the game moves faster, with more baserunning and fielding involved.  The lure of hitting to the opposite field remains. 

Hero Departures

Sinead O'Connor - (July 26) Check out her voice on The Edge's recording of "Heroine" (correct spelling) for the soundtrack of "Captive" (some creepy movie that seems was never released). She could wail with the best of them.  And she had things to wail aboot. 

Lowell Weicker - (June 28) If I'm not mistaken, he was the last person running as Republican that I voted for, in 1976 (a blowout win for him).  Who needs to be reminded of his heroic performance demanding the truth from Nixon's henchmen in the Ervin Senate Committee? His career as a Republican Senator and an Independent governor of Connecticut is a great example of how a true nonpartisan should behave, but where did he come from? The answer is, he was a classic rich Republican, an heir to a fortune like Jay Rockefeller (who was a Democratic Senator from West Virginia, repeatedly re-elected.  Imagine that.)

Robbie Robertson (August 9) -- The lead guitarist and songwriter for The Band, which was Bob Dylan's group for a critical period in the late '60's and early '70's.  He went on to a successful solo career and did soundtracks for Scorsese movies.  His is an interesting heritage story involving native Americans and Jews and Canadians.  But he practically invented Americana!  A good lesson that America is more than just the US. 

Paul Reubens (July 30) - Hard to say what I feel about Pee-Wee.  Personally, I couldn't stand watching his show, though it was very popular in certain circles for being campy. He seemed to be very aware, very sensitive, even kind, but he had to do time for sex crimes.  

John "Bud" Wilson (April 9) - I didn't know him, but he was famous, beloved.  He had a spectacular career as a physician and surgeon, and then afterwards built a legacy from his land conservation efforts in the Lama area (north of Taos, in the mountains).  

Milan Kundera (July 11) - I hadn't heard much from him for decades, but The Unbearable Lightness of Being  remains a touchstone novel for latter-day existentialist thought.  Written when his Czechoslovakia was behind the Iron Curtain, it helped us on this side of the Wall to understand how life was, and was not, different over there then. 

Tony Bennett (July 20) - Like Reubens, I wouldn't say he was a hero of mine, but he was one for many.  His jazzy versions of easy listening classics were one thing, but his public behavior and steadfast stance for justice, equality, and chill made him easily enviable.  

Cormac McCarthy (June 13) - He had an uncompromising vision of doom and gloom in the post-modern West.  I would say he had a good understanding of how the land could be "No Country for Old Men", but he rubbed our face in it, over and over.  I loved "All the Pretty Horses", before his method began to wear on me.  Still, deserves maximum respect for his honesty.   

The War - Unlike all the phony crises in this tweener kind of year, Russian premier Putin has decided that we must continue to have a real one, spreading death and destruction widely.  All efforts to contain it are subject to be overcome by both sides' desire to strike in new ways at their enemy, creating escalation without direction.  Efforts to bring the butchery to an end are suspended until Ukraine can make enough progress to regain its sovereign territory, which has so far in this counteroffensive been slow or non-existent. 

Today we receive word that Valery Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, who has both served and irritated Putin, was believed to be on a plane that crashed in Russia.  How and why it crashed is something we are not likely to know, but that his days were numbered was an easy prediction.  Which I made not long ago--his departure seems to have been accomplished sooner than I expected. 

The 2024 Election-- I have enjoyed some respite from the continuous political wars--ignoring the dozens of emails daily requesting money for next year's battles.  Alas, it seems we can avoid the looming struggle no more.  I will be blogging on politics tonight as the GOP debate kicks off the unavoidable. 

    

Them Changes

Before we get to the late Queen, mourning precedence for me goes to Mikhail Gorbachev, the last top leader of the Soviet Union.  His time in his nation's throne of power was much more brief than Queen Elizabeth II's time in her throne of display, but more consequential on the whole.  Even if the gains in global security from the end to the USSR vs. USA Cold War are fading rapidly, he gets the thanks of history for his instrumental role in the sudden fall of the Iron Curtain and the end of the Communist dictatorship at home. Sad that so many long for its return there. 

I have never lived when there was another reigning monarch in Great Britain, yet the story of that monarchy is as close as ever to our history, separated by only a couple hundred years.  Not even;  lands near to us both north an south still profess loyalty to the throne (at least so far; let's see how they take to King Charles III).  Elizabeth was a worthy heir to the storied tradition of the British monarchy, and she took to her duty proudly.  If she seemed to be the moralistic bourgeois scold, maybe we failed to remember that, in the royal family, affairs of the heart are really affairs of the state.  She was just doing her job, like making sure she had a nice long list of male heirs when she died.  We can be sure she brought a sharp intelligence to it, and according to many, a keen sense of humor.   Above all, she observed the limits, and did her part to make sure others did, too. 

She doesn't deserve from the British any of the Gorbachevian blame Russians assign to him for the diminution (or end, depending on how you see it) of the Russian Empire.  When she took over the role (1952), the biggest piece of her one, India/Pakistan, had already sheared off, and much more was already in progress, peacefully or not.  She was expected to preside over a whole bunch more of independence-minded colonial subjects cutting her loose, to a greater or lesser extent.  The Commonwealth thing was a mostly well-intentioned effort to keep British fingers in the pie and reduce lingering resentments felt toward the former masters.  She did her best to keep a good humo(u)r about it all:  More than how she felt about so-and-so, I would be interested in her attitudes at the time toward this somewhat hopeful, but also tragic, experience driven by necessity.  Like, what about Africa?

Britain politically is in deep trouble, not that Charles can do anything about it. By coincidence, the change of government nearly coincided with the Queen's passing, so the new Prime Minister had to meet with His Excellency.  'Best of luck', I'm sure was his counsel (a command?).  Maybe the grieving period will find some sort of new resolve for the pandemic-stricken nation.  In the meantime, Liz Truss,  well-supported (if only within her own party's membership), will lead a patchwork clique of rightist Brexiteers right over the electoral cliff two years away.  Or maybe she won't.  Last that long, I mean. 

None of this matters much in its relation to US foreign policy toward Europe, which is deterministic under the current wartime circumstances--they need us, and we will support any of them.  Even the neo-fascist-tending new government likely to arise from Italy's next election, because it will be pro-US. 

As for 'This here' nation, with two whole months left until Election Day, we are firmly fixated on our navel.  What women see then is disturbing them. What has changed? A little of everything, but mostly the Supreme Court's decision.  The Patriarchy is a real target. The play to make the election a referendum on a failed Biden Administration has itself been played out. There's a choice, and it's Biden vs. Trump, though neither is on the ballot.  Those are real changes, but mostly in our moods; all of these have been in the cards, now played on the table. 

As for the all-important Senate contest, I continue to say that 50-50 is the most likely outcome, though there is more chance of 51-49 D than 49-51.   I firmly expect Democrats to hold AZ and win PA.  GA is not likely to be decided Election Night, and NH may be too close to make an early call, so then the focus should be on NV (most vulnerable Dem incumbent), NC (open seat), and WI (most vulnerable Republican incumbent).  If the Democrats can win one of those three, it may be clear Election Night and thus make continued Democratic control somewhat assured (50-49 in that scenario, with GA determined later).  The way things look now,  it may take a couple days before the outcome of enough House races are clear in order to determine control there.

Changes...in Sport

Major League Baseball released its rules changes for 2023 today. Long under consideration, their general objective is a game played more swiftly, with more "balls in play" (not just a strikeout, walk, or home run).  One is a fixed time between pitches, with some reasonable allowances for either the pitcher or hitter (to briefly perform essential functions, like grabbing his crotch or spitting); the second is a larger base for the runner to touch (more about that in a moment). The third, and most controversial, is the creation of a restriction on the positioning of the defense.  Infielders need to be positioned at the start of the play with two on either side of an imaginary line going from the home plate, through the pitching rubber to second base, and they also can't start the play in the outfield. 

I'm against this rule.  I don't like that major league teams can successfully employ extreme shifts in their defensive alignment, but if it works, it's because hitters aren't able to take advantage of them.  The all-or-nothing swing has combined with the sharp breaking stuff pitchers are coming out with to create record low batting averages.  But why constrain the strategy of teams to something less-than-optimal?  I foresee a lot of issues with fielders running laterally with the pitch to get into a better position or angle to defend where the batter is known to hit.  For me, a good compromise would draw from the volleyball "libero" position which solved the problem:  one fielder would be able to position himself anywhere in fair territory--he'd probably be the shortstop, but not necessarily so.  

The 'expanded bag' decision is a reform I agree with entirely.  It will promote safety and make stolen base attempts significantly more attractive.  And more successful:  the secret reason for the change is to cut down on that odious play where the fielder takes the throw after the base-stealer has just reached the bag, holds a tag firmly down on the runner and hopes he loses contact with the bag for an instant as he decelerates. Increasing the square length from 15" to 18" saves the runner only three inches (something that was mentioned, telling me that the length between bases is not so sacrosanct) but increases its surface area more than 40%. 

Which brings me to my radical idea to improve batting averages, and to get hitters to think not just about slugging, but hitting:  I suggest reducing the distance from home to first, by the proverbial "half a step".  Now, that will improve the infamous, stubborn BABIP (Batting Average on balls in play), more than this set of changes! Some other time I may fly that "kite" in a fuller exposition. 

Tennis gets next mention for its change, generational in nature.  The current US Open men's tourney is cementing it.  Frances Tiafoe and Nick Kyrgios winning over Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev signaled rapid movement away from the Big 3 era of men's tennis, and even from the recent transitional, pandemic-era Three or Four Guys Chasing the Big 3 Era*.  The symbol of the New Order just officially begun was the 5 1/2-hour Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz quarterfinal the other night, so good I couldn't turn it off at whatever a.m.   

Alcaraz stands out as the one who will define this New Age.  If he completes his run in the US Open by defeating spectral nice-guy Casper Ruud, he will become the youngest ATP #1-ranked men's player in history--by a couple of years.  His athletic ability is truly off all charts of normal distribution, and he shows a lot of tactical tennis smarts and even strategic acumen.  And no sign of getting tired, however many five-set matches.  I don't know how long he could keep that combination intact, but for that amount of time he is always going to be nearly impossible to defeat, the way Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal have been, except when playing each other.

As for the women's game, an unusual amount of order is developing.  The period since the decline from the near-total domination by just-retired Serena Williams, some five years long, has been chaotic.  There have typically been four different champions in the four Grand Slam events, each coming seemingly from nowhere.  Then it looked like Naomi Osaka would dominate, but she freaked at the tsunami of fame.  Ash Barty had a firm grip on #1, but then almost immediately dropped it for other interests (like getting married, it turns out).  We now have Iga Swiatek, humble but consistent, taking on talented Tunisian Ons Jabeur, with Coco Gauff in the wings, nearly ready for her time on central stage.   Some pretty amazing diversity going on there, at the top of the women's game. 

I have only one relatively minor radical suggestion for tennis.  Since the men's Grand Slams insist on being 3-of-5 sets throughout, while the rest of the season is 2-of-3, make the sets to five games instead of six.  It would be less a battle of attrition and would get to the point--the tie-breaker--in those sets where there is no edge emerging.  Better TV, too, or should I not mention that? 

I give NCAA college football credit for recognizing what is better TV and going with it.  The expansion in their playoffs (the CFP, get used to the TLA^) from four teams to 12 that they have announced recently is impressive, and it puts to shame all those conniving conference con artists with their empire-building schemes (the SEC and "Big 10").  

The lesson, quite simply, is that more playoffs, with more teams, is better.   The NBA reminded us of this recently as its already-bloated 16-team playoffs expanded even further with the Play-In improvisation during the pandemic, which is now permanently in place.  Major League Baseball also bumped its playoff participant number once again, though this year it doesn't seem to be adding more pennant races, just more teams with postseason participation, their aspirations soon to be crushed by the Dodgers and Astros. 

In general, the further down the ranking that the cutoff between the Interested and the Uninteresting may lie, the better for league health.  Less critical press, more engaged fans.  

*The Three or Four Guys I'm thinking of are Dominik Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, and Sasha Zverev.  I'm hoping Zverev recovers completely to challenge the new, younger, guns.  

^Three-Letter Acronym. 

Afghanistan and Its Discontents

Rather than the Graveyard of Empires, Afghanistan is better described as "A Bridge Too Far"*.  As in, wherever you, Great Power, think you're going, the conquest of Afghanistan is a land-bridge too far: Try something else.  For your own sake.  But, the British Empire didn't die when defeated in Afghanistan, neither did Alexander the Great.  For Genghis Khan, it took some devious doing, but he defeated the empire ruling Iran and most of Afghanistan, a key victory--then moved on.  The Soviet Union didn't collapse immediately because of Afghanistan, though it was a signal of an empire that had totally lost its bearings, one which suddenly collapsed, with a bit of a clandestine nudge from us there.  Possibly the same could be said of the adventure US and NATO  just completed there, though it's still too soon to be sure (check back in about 30 months).

As geopolitical destination targets for empire building go, Afghanistan isn't much to look at. ** In the set of completely landlocked countries (the least valued type), it's suprisingly far down the list, well below the likes of Mali and Kazakhstan, and actually a notch below Zambia.  It does have a lot of interesting, nuclear-weapon armed (or possibly nuclear-arming) countries that it borders upon, so it could be viewed as a good place to attack on the way to something more exciting.  Except that it's not--it's got to be one of the most challenging to conquer and govern as an outside invading force. 

Funny thing is, we did knock it over in 2001, rather easily in terms of our forces required, with help from a resistance force opposed to the Taliban called the Northern Alliance.  That one is now trying to reconstitute itself in resistance to Taliban rule in the Panjshir Valley.  That group, if it survives for long, will pose one of the many tricky strategic decisions the US must make in the "post-war" environment ahead.   Should we aid it?  No doubt, the US popular opinion would be in favor, in a misplaced desire for revenge.

Yes, we won the war in 2001 there.  It was a use of military force I agreed with, back then; so did 90% of Americans, and all but one members of Congress. The Taliban government had openly allowed the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks to operate from there;  they either had to turn them over, or they would be ousted and Al Qaeda booted from there.  

The mistake was staying there; we lost the peace.  If I had been the decision maker then, I would have tried to get a few thousand Turkish troops in there, paid for by NATO.  As a predominantly Muslim nation, they would have had a better understanding of the complexities of keeping the peace there, and better able to deal with the messy, ugly realities there. 

For a short amount of time,  the effort was supported. By us, and by many of our NATO allies.  There were setbacks in the initial set of leaders to be inserted into the country, both with an assassination and another warlord dropped into a trap (in Herat), but the move to insert Pashtun leader Hamid Karzai and set him up as President was sound and worked fairly well.  Until we got distracted. 

Rumsfeld

The question is not whether we dropped the ball in Afghanistan so we could focus on Iraq, but why?  Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld always wanted to focus on Iraq, a more "target-rich environment" than Afghanistan,** but punishing the Taliban and driving out Al Qaeda came first. After that was "completed" (with the other objective of the mission, neutralizing Bin Laden put on hold), Rumsfeld seems to have been promised the opportunity to mobilize and mass forces to attack Iraq.  Once there, activating them took a life of its own, with the consequences badly or barely considered. 

As Karl Rove is attributed by Dubya to have been the "architect" of his 2000 Presidential victory, the late Donald Rumsfeld was the architect of whatever we ended up doing after 9/11/2001. I know, he wasn't the person responsible for either post-conquest fiasco, then or now.  But I think the "why?" answer points squarely at him, assisted by Dick Cheney. More power was granted to them, and the well-timed 2002 elections certainly helped give the Iraq thing a boost. (Republicans have had some facility with that timing thing, though their luck ran out last year.)

I do cut him a certain amount of slack as a fellow townsman, someone who bought up a lot of land because he loved it, and seems to have been treating it well.  It falls to his family, but I would imagine they have been well-groomed to handle it.  

That describes him very well, both groomer and groomed.  He was highly influential in his days (which were during two different periods as Defense Secretary, 25 years apart), not just because of the importance of the post.  He was exemplary in the effort he put into public service, applying himself and getting others to do so. Militarily, both Afghanistan and Iraq ended up being easy wins, for which he deserves credit to a limited extent.  Once you accept the multi-pronged premise.  But, amazingly, the event planners failed to consider the "exit strategy" dimension, really, for either, replacing it with fantasy and blur. 

Donald Rumsfeld should be an object lesson to history of the danger of excessive self-confidence and unwillingness to hear alternative ideas.  I'm not sure the Biden Administration learned that one before the current crisis.  Seems to me there was an absolute absence of consideration of the worst-case scenario and what would be required to avoid it.  Or maybe I'm wrong; I just don't see evidence of it. 

What's next, Joe? 

The arc of the Washington-Taliban 2.0 relationship under the Biden Administration is not yet determined. We will have to accept a lot of internal brutality, as vendettas are settled, town by town.  We have a chance to do better than we did in relation to Iran, and so does theTaliban.  At least, so far they can say, "See, no hostages!" The UN may have a role to play that can be accepted.  War weariness is surely a factor, throughout the country. 

The question that the finale of the evacuation, with the drone strike and collateral deaths of civilians as the best alternative to allowing the suicide bomber access to the scene at the airport, will bring to bear, in some form, is:  Who will the Taliban call now when they know where the ISIS people are?  As for Al Qaeda, nobody there better call themselves that, and that is final. 

Deltafghanida(del-taf-gan-i-da)

As it's written, bad news comes in 3. 

Politics, Then and Now

I am prompted to action by the news of the passing of Walter Mondale, 93.   A fine example of  an American statesman, who should be defined by his successes more than for his famous defeated run for the Presidency.  

"Former Vice President" is the title of respect that will be used (in the Carter Administration, 1977-81), and he was by all accounts a breakthrough VP in the level of delegated responsibility, but his service was much broader than that.   During the Clinton Administration, he served as Ambassador to Japan; he was a two-term Senator from Minnesota before Carter promoted him as his running mate.  He remained dependable, loyal, and quite willing to serve, even stepping into a desperation two-week campaign upon the sudden death of Minnesota Democratic senatorial candidate Paul Wellstone (losing narrowly to future narrow-loser Norm Coleman). 

It is necessary, and no longer painful, to think back to that red-letter year, 1984, the year that Mondale was trounced by Ronald Reagan for his re-election.  The country was divided, with a solid Democratic majority in the House but Republican control of the Senate (sound familiar?)   The mood was very different, though:  the economy had regained its footing from the stagflation, skyrocketing interest rates, and recession of the Carter/Reagan transitional period.  George Orwell and his dystopic novel's awareness was everywhere, but the RR=BB (Big Brother)  connection never quite clicked with the electorate. 

The task for any Democratic nominee in '84 was nearly impossible: against Reagan (at that time, the survivor of the assassin's bullet, not yet revealed to be senile, not yet ensnared, also near-fatally, in Iran/Contra) there was no easily identifiable pathway to victory.  The early favorite to challenge him was Ted Kennedy, but he decided--early--to take a pass. My pick was Sen. John Glenn of Ohio--swing-state gold, and a true hero, as opposed to a phony one--but his bid flamed out quickly.  Jesse Jackson impressed, but we all knew he was not getting it. I think there might have been a Gephardt or some such moderate in there, but Mondale was the most substantial.  It was during the primary campaign that he capitalized on the lack of substance in Gary Hart's platform, borrowing the attack line from Wendy's Hamburgers (then much better, I insist) and asking, "Where's the Beef?"

It was enough to get him the nod, but being honest, capable, and above all, liberal, was not the formula to compete with Ronnie.  Neither was the inspired-but-premature bid for a breakthrough by selecting Rep. Geraldine Ferraro as the first-ever major-party national woman candidate. Ferraro could not inject the pzazz the Democrats needed to counter Reagan's star power and Teflon. No 21st-century Electoral College fluke, Mondale-Ferraro won in his home state and D.C. and that's it.  The popular margin was just as one-sided. 

"Fritz", as his friends called him, never achieved a distinctive public personality.  My own perception of him included a sense of humor,  a sensitive streak, and a lot of attention to family.  I see him as the 50-year continuation of the legacy of his mentor, Hubert Humphrey, who also achieved the rank of Former VP. 

Nonpartisan Initiatives, Pt. 3:  Quick Hits

I emphasize all my solutions are nonpartisan, not merely "bipartisan", which seems to be the highest possible aspiration of the unlikely unity seekers.  Rather than seeking all-encompassing solutions to these perennial social issues, I suggest simple fixes for the immediate problems in these areas to defuse them as issues for the '22 elections. 

Gun control - at this point, I will accept anything the Republicans will take onto themselves as well.  Unilateral action is out of the question, but I caution that it is much too late to just reduce how far open the barn doors remain.  

There are so many possible improvements.  For example, a friend argued to me the other day that the solution is a simple one: Federal law to require liability insurance for gun owners.  Insurance companies would do the rest, and surely what would happen is that those most-dangerous weapons would cost an arm and a leg to insure.  

Many would seek to evade, just as health plans that fail to meet minimal coverage levels have arisen to fill ACA requirements. We all know insurance companies find it better to invest in bureaucracy, lobbying Republican Congressmen, and legalities than to pay out "awards", but the net result would surely be less guns. And hatred of insurance companies (leading to Medicare for All, probably).  A net benefit, as the Chicago School of Economics might predict, but it won't keep loser incel shooters out of gun stores.  We have to follow Nancy Reagan and "Just Say No" when they try to buy, and be prepared to follow up with the authorities if necessary. 

Immigration - Free the DACA's, and on a limited basis, their families, with fast-track citizenship.  Set refugee numbers to increase gradually, but a one-time cleanup of the backlog is necessary. Stop exuding confusing wall signals. 

Minimum wage - What is this obsession with $15.00?  Why not $14.50?  It should be set based on local cost of living in rented quarters and adjust according to inflation.  In some places, $15 is not even enough, but here, it would be a job-killer if enforced. Which it wouldn't be.  

Abortion - OK, we just want to postpone this one and meanwhile reduce incidence of abortion through voluntary measures.  I suggest morning-after pills available in vending machines in women's and unisex bathrooms. 

Police reform - People forget, but somewhere in the back of their mind they remember, that calls of "police brutality" and references to "pigs" were once quite frequent.  The police seemed to win that round, helped by all the TV shows that demonstrated police were always the good guys, something that has only metastasized.   The revisionist theme of the corrupt or depraved cop has had its monstrous moments also, but I prefer just a lot less of all of it--I recommend severe cancel culture attacks on those shows as being destructive to our actual security.  Our minds will follow, and justice maybe a whole lot later.

Side-View Mirror

What Was Tolerable 

(... Specifically in 2020)

There's a fairly high bar for something to have been tolerable last year.  Whatever's present, will have been present day after day for indefinite duration, so it had better not have been very annoying.  

Cooking - (but not cleaning up afterward) - the best of the many options in these latter days of the Golden Age of Global Food (supply chains permitting).  

Stretch corduroys - I find them superior to stretch blue jeans, though that's also a notable innovation, for those long stretches sitting.  And who cares about the "whoosh-whoosh" walking around the house anymore?  Apparently no one. 

Robert Fripp/Toyay Willcox Sunday Lunch- performances on youtube and elsewhere, King Crimson guitarist Fripp covers rock classics in brief form while Willcox performs in her own chosen way.  Here they "do" Metallica.  That and memories of the Crimson tour in the last years of the decade just finished provide a Hurrah! that will resound from this era. 

Sirius XM.  My cars (Hyundai) had the bug on top for it, so they tracked it down and gave it to me, practically.  It works in the Gorge when KTAO cannot be found.   If you listen to one station exclusively, it is repetitive an a couple hours' hearing will bring duplication.  So, keep changing!  My most frequent listens 1st Wave, U2, Real Jazz, Alt Nation, Sirius XMU, and that English football one.  Now, Hyundai--that's a different story, for another day.  

Talenti Gelati e Sorbetti.  It's just Unilever, but they are packing some good gelato and sorbet flavors.  My current favorites are the Hazelnut Chocolate Chip Gelato and the Cold Brew Coffee Sorbetto.  My answer to the "unpacking" going on in talks all over. 

...And What is, Now 

The picture's practically self-explanatory, if it's all readable.  Our local cinema reopened yesterday after about 12 months, and we had to go see a movie in the theater.  Locally, we were being rewarded for low number of Trump Virus infections ('green' status), something likely not to persist:  we are being deluged with out-of-towners from various Neanderthal-leaning states (and California).   We were so charged to be there, with the popcorn and the candy, and 25% maximum-capacity seating, and good ventilation.  

As for the movie, it was a good choice for us.  See my review for more about it; we knew next to nothing going in, but were not up for a police procedural or some kind of tear-jerker.  We wanted action, and sensory stimulation.   

One other comment:  The trailer for upcoming movie "Dune" flattened me.  Streaming services have their place, for TV-type viewing, but this is one I commit to seeing on a big screen (not in my home). 

Remembering the Heroics of "Ballers" Who Mattered to Me -   (Factual Statements below are Unchecked)

Westley Unseld - Wes, the player who I wanted to be.  The master of the defensive rebound/outlet pass, and of scoring in the low post. A humble, hard-working, effective Hall of Famer. I saw him in the semifinals of the Louisville Invitational Tournament as a child (his Seneca team suffered a tough loss to Carr Creek in the final, or was it the other way around? )  He was the franchise player for the (US) Capital area NBA team for a decade or more and got at least a title there. 

John Thompson - never saw him play (a backup on some Celtics teams) but his effect on basketball, through his coaching and recruitment, made a permanent difference to the game.  His teams earned a great deal of respect and generate major NBA stars. 

Gale Sayers - He was a hero whose abilities were beyond imagining for me.  His specialty was the broken-field run, avoiding tacklers and cutting back and forth, but always forward.  His style reminds me of some of the modern 'footballers" like Messi, DeBruyne, or Pulisic.  Like them, defenders have to go for the knees; Sayers' career was all too short.  

Joe Morgan - The man who added the magic, simply by doing everything right, to make the Big Red Machine into the world champions of '75-76.  The best trade the Reds ever made in my lifetime was to get him.  (The worst, obviously, was trading Frank Robinson, which happened before i was even aware of it.)

Diego Maradona - Pele was a bit before my time, or at least before my attention was drawn to international football, but we got to see and experience from afar Maradona's roller coaster career and life, rising from the slums, dodging enemies external and internal, to achieve exceptional glory.  My last memory of him was a cameo in Paolo Sorrentino's "Giovinezza" (Youth), in which he plays a retired, rehabbing footballer who still boasts some incandescent skills, playing with a soccer ball. Not much of a stretch, as a role. 

Alex Trebek - We admired his skills as game-show host and erudite enunciator, but we did not realize what a beautiful role model his kind, generous behavior presented.  One of my regrets was that I never got on Jeopardy! when I was young and my factual recall was ferociously intact. 

And John Lewis/Ruth Bader Ginsburg.  Why not include them?  These two played their game(s) as it was meant to be played. They put the lie to cynics who deride their profession(s).