Trump Out

 It is delicious to consider the ways Donald Trump might leave the 2024 race.  The idea I treasured was that the weight of multiple criminal trials, augmented by an endless stream of civil suits, would cause him to just pack it in.  The toll that breaks him could be psychological, physical, financial, economical, or just pure exhaustion from anger and anxiety.  While it does seem like this series of judicial setbacks and indictments is taking a toll on his psyche, it's not looking like that will drive him to quit. 

There is the possibility of severe illness, or death.  That would do the trick to get him out.  

There are other possibilities that could possibly deter him or even prevent him from completing his primary campaign and/or winning the nomination. He could be jailed, more likely for contempt of court or defying a gag order than for a sentence after conviction, as I don't think any case is likely to reach that stage, pre-November; however, he could even continue his campaign from behind bars--we should be certain he would make the most of it, performance-wise.  There is the thing about the 14th Amendment, which states people who participate in insurrection should be barred from Federal office.  OK, he did it, but who gets to decide that?  Without a conviction for sedition, I can't see the courts upholding it.  I don't think obstruction of a Federal proceeding will do it. 

He could be defeated in the Republican primaries.  It seems impossible now, but it's still early.  The most salient challenge to him yet within the party is the poll that shows that Nikki Haley does significantly better than he (or any other declared Republican candidate) against Biden.  It's not hard to understand:  she has a better chance of getting votes from some portion of those women who have had their rights reduced by Trumpist Supreme Court Justices.  But still, if it comes to a primary head-to-head against any of them, he will get the majority in most or all states.  As things stand. 

There could even be something he does that finally goes beyond what his supporters, generally, can tolerate.  Maybe trying to strangle Melania, or Tiffany?   It's hard to imagine his support falling so much that it would drive him to quit, unless it were through unlikely electoral defeat. 

I do feel the hammer blows of the trials will do damage, but they themselves are unlikely to drive him out.  If they do, or if by other means Trump is out, though, it could get very interesting. If something were to happen soon, say before Super Tuesday, there would be a scramble to get into the race from people like Chris Sununu of New Hampshire or Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, along with a ramping up of the funds raised by candidates like Haley or Tim Scott, who may suddenly have a chance.  Even Ron DeSantis, in this case!

I think it's far more likely, if we are presuming Trump out (and Biden remaining in) that this would be something happening much later, when Trump has a monster lead in delegates or has received the nomination. (I'm going by the deliberate pace of these trials, and that they may possibly wear on him physically as well.)   If that's the case, I can't see the Republican convention delegates, or the Republican National Committee members, who'd be called for a quick decision after the convention, doing any kind of an about-face with regard to the Trumpist populist nationalist theme.  So, that would point to a selection of the most Trumpy one around, Vivek Ramaswamy or Scott, or Kristi Noem (rumored to be Trump's favorite VP choice), maybe. 

This kind of sudden Trump departure may not derail the Republicans' chances, even if Trump's departure is egregious or shameful. There seem to be many who would have less qualms about voting against the Democrats if the Presidential candidate were someone they didn't have to feel guilty about supporting.  Similarly, if Trump bails early and the Republicans have time to consider their selection, that person may find their voice on issues like shrinking the Federal government and immigration in a way that will put the Biden campaign on the defensive. The successor is also likely to be considerably younger in that circumstance, which will also work against Biden's successful re-election. 

I think the same logic could apply to Congressional races--voters tend to despise Washington but like their Congressperson.  I don't think Trump's passing from the scene will hurt most Representatives from red districts, while the effect on swing districts would depend on the circumstances.  There could be sympathetic support for Trump's successor, and there could be a rally around that person stronger than the feigned love Republican office-holders offer for the Wherever Man. That would mean coattails.

I don't see a Trump departure giving any assist to third-party candidacies of the right.  Republicans would glom together very quickly.  The same may not be true of the left:  without Trump to unify Democrats, Biden's support may suffer and someone (RFKJR?)  could cleave off some support. 

So, this one's not all positive for Democratic chances by any means.  But I'll still take it, unlikely as it seems.

Initial 2024 Election Post

 

I guess I have to admit the 2024 electoral campaign has started.  If candidates have already entered and failed, then something must be happening.  Indeed, something similar seems to have happened to the campaign of the Marquis (de Sadeness); Governor Ron DeSantis' campaign has already peaked and is imploding. 

Another indicator:  PredictIt has posted its first market on the popular vote margin (Dem%-Rep%).  As far as PI is concerned, this clarifies the limitations they have agreed to with regard to new markets, after a hiatus for over a year.  They still focused the brackets on the null scenario of an Electoral College nailbiter, in the interests of generating revenue (and academic research, too!) To note the initial market take for the record, Dem winning % (tie being the exception) is about 60-40, taking into account the bid/ask. 

I don't count that initial debate as part of the campaign, as such; more like spring training in baseball. I can't resist a couple of comments, anyway. Smarmy Vivek has postulated himself as the most Trumpy of all, and it will be hard to top him for smarminess. Ah, DeSadness!  I think it was a little too evident Ron saw that gig as nowhere.  He was back in his element at home with hurricane warnings and gratuitous insult to Biden. 

I will proceed with a scenario-based analysis, considering the effects upon the massively-important House and Senate races for each.  The 2022-23 status of Congress is anomalous, with the House improbably with a Republican majority, considering the Senate has a narrow Democratic majority.  Most likely outcomes are reversal of both, but the Presidential race should be so consequential that it will carry more coattails than many recent partisan re-alignments in Congress. 

 I will also need to consider possible effects of significant third-party candidacies in each scenario, something that has not happened since Ross Perot in '92 and '96 (the marginal effects of Nader/Stein-type results, as we can expect for Cornel West's candidacy, for example, not changing the scenario, though they could be tiebreakers). 

The planned sequence of posts by scenario is as follows, starting, arbitrarily, by my choice of the most desirable one: 

1 - Trump Collapse.  The weight of his criminal trials cripples him--it only takes a few percent of his following turning against him, but he won't quit. 

2- Biden Weakened - Either economic weakness or undeniable physical/mental weakness makes him less-than-viable for all but his committed supporters. 

3 - War/Chaos - A crisis of massive proportion.  Think Pearl Harbor/9-11/COVID/UFO's, or widespread insurrection.

4 - Trump Out - He does quit, or die, or he is barred from campaign as a result of any of his convictions or court rulings. 

5 - Biden Out - He becomes deathly ill and must be replaced.  Or won't leave and is the victim of a successful party revolt. 

6 - Both Out - The most likely way is Trump gives in or is out for whatever reason, and Biden then finds a reason he doesn't need to run.

7 Stasis - the Null Scenario.  Biden and Trump run until the bitter end.  Debates will be few, and Trump's plea in the Georgia case proves the climax, one way or the other.

I don't want to get too precise about the likelihood of the scenarios, but I would say 1 and 2 are about equally likely at 10% or so, Scenario 6 is probably more likely than either 4 or 5, and all three add up to 20-30%, and Scenario 3 we can pull a number out of the air and say is no more than 5%.  Those events have happened several times in the past century, but have not often come in election years, as it turns out (2020 the exception!)   

That leaves no more than 40-50% likelihood for the Null Scenario that everyone focuses on.  It is, though, the one with the highest likelihood, so I will go into it with the most depth. 

I do not want at all to trivialize or counter the argument that this election is extremely important, on the order of ones like 1860, 1932, or 1968.  In most of these scenarios I describe briefly above, the key question underlying the competition is whether our Constitution can hold up under the threat of Executive malfeasance and manipulation.  It managed to hold up during Watergate, but this combines that with elements of classic American rebellious behavior threatening our way of governing ourselves.