I assure you my absence from posting for two months was not due to laziness. I have been through it, since July, really, but more intensely the month of September. Getting ready to downsize, and after 20+ years in our house, it has been a real challenge.
Let's just say that whereas my measure of success was previously freeing up some square footage on the floor of our walk-in closet (my wife insists every woman wants one), it became a question instead of volume reduction; but now that it's done and we are in our new apartment, it is once again about surface area. Not to say that we have changed the basic issue of simply having too much stuff.
I have moved many times, so it was not the actual change of location (not completed yet, in the formal sense), but the sense of giving up something big. That recalled my first move, when I was 10 and at the height of my fourth-grade prowess. Then I learned that home is a matter of circumstance to some extent.
Twice this year I have had a conversation with a European remarking that one way that residents of the USA (those we refer to as "Americans") differ from Europeans is that we move a lot more, and further away. Though their perception may be somewhat biased by principally having encounters with the more mobile of us, I feel that the conclusion is accurate. We talk about the lack of vertical mobility in today's society, but there is no lack of the horizontal one.
In this case, it was just across town (and here, that's a five-minute drive). We are temporizing with a one-year lease while we see if the proposed sale offer becomes real, and while we monitor closely our health and financial condition. But really, I'm waiting to see if the popular zeal to punish our Federal government's mal-administration will materialize in a significant change in Congress, made real--that will happen in January, it seems, though November will establish the playing field for what's next.
In that context, I am watching closely what outrages a lame duck Congress filled with Republican losers might impose upon us. In particular, I think there is discussion in Republican backrooms about trying to pull an "Amy Conan Barrett" maneuver, convincing Alito to step down for the cause if it's clear the Senate is lost, so they can jam in another hack before history moves on.
Last Chance, Last Dance
I try not to repeat myself, following David Byrne's Psycho-killer philosophy. I think the change of direction in the popular vector, discussed last February, has translated into momentum that has persisted and become ever more broad. Rejection of Trump's "Bad policy, poorly implemented", spiced up with frequent Trumpian inanity and lies, has now been taken on widely by independents and even penetrated the partisan wall of thought of Republican regulars. The opinion is held by a large majority now (60%, roughly), but the electoral outcome depends on multiple factors, very much including local considerations.
The anti-Trump alliance, enhanced by the emergence of some exciting new candidates, looks ready to capture a large popular majority in the midterms. My estimate of 6-8% margin (measured factually by House races nationally) for Democrats should probably be increased to 8-10%. In the House, this effect of this margin is dampened by the manipulations of Congressional districts, both the normal ones every decade and the special ones engineered prior to these elections. It's hard to see the Democrats gaining more than 20-25 seats, but that will be more than enough, and there will be a couple of shockers, seats supposedly "fixed" for Republican control that will have upsets.
The Senate's statewide elections have less possibility for these manipulation, so the results will be more transparent, and any Senate seat with a presumed Republican margin of 10% or less in Federal elections, based on the last couple of contests, has become a target for a Democratic gain. How many of them end up being Democratic will depend on whether those regular Republican voters grumpily show up and represent for their side, regardless. There are more of those people in states like Nebraska, South Carolina, and Kansas, so I would moderate expectations for those. I am still thinking that Alaska is a toss-up with the ranked-choice-voting dynamics somewhat against our Mary Peltola, but Iowa may be added to the list of seats we can envision winning. A pickup of five seats (let's say NC, ME, OH, TX, AK) would not only be "Fetterman-proof", but might entice Alaska's other Senator, Liz Murkowski, who has announced that she is now Independent, to swing over to the Democratic caucus.
And then there is Florida, which like Texas would be monumentally important as a pick-up in state control, because it is so large and so Republican in recent years. Angie Nixon has surprised everyone to gain the nomination with a strong roots-based campaign for Senate, and David Jolly is just the kind of reformed Republican that can win the governorship there. Defeating DeSantis' Republican successor (the odious Byron Donalds) and Greg Abbott in Texas (Gina Hinojosa is at least close) would be landmark successes signifying an opening for a massive change in the governance of the nation.
Anyway, if the efforts of the Drumpfenreich suppress the popular will, there will be powerful response. And that is the cause of my wait-and-see judgment on "Living in America".
Posts
