Disorder in the House

 I give credit to local radio DJ Brad Hockmeyer for pulling out and playing this cut by Warren Zevon, from The Wind, the last album release before his passing in 2003. Besides being a great rock n roll song, it captures this moment of the rise of anarchic sentiment in this country, two years downstream from the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection. 

The lyrics are quirky and hilarious ("even the lhasa apso seems to be ashamed"), but here's the serious angle: 

I just got my paycheck
I'm gonna paint the whole town gray
Whether it's a night in Paris
Or a Fresno matinee
It's the home of the brave
And the land of the free
Where the less you know
The better off you'll be

I'm not worrying about the stalemate, really:  If there were a real need for the House to act in these days (like a declaration of war or a Defense budget proposal), they'd get it together in a moment.  This is about a bunch of showboating extremists who have found a way to get public attention for their rants, and they want it to continue for the next two years.  Anything that can gain the support of the unified Republican Members (imagine there could be such a thing) would have no chance in the Senate or with Joe Biden's veto pen.  His only chance will be to find some areas of agreement with some Democratic Members. 

What Kevin McCarthy needs to do is tell the rebels, at some point in the next days, that this is their last chance, that after that he will begin to treat with Democrats.  It is very tempting for him--his one and only true career ambition, to be listed in the honorable annals of Speakers--and it is so close.  There are two ways for him to go:  one would be a minimal agreement for some number of Democrats to vote "present"  (30 or 40, I'd say) which would allow Kevin to become Speaker if he can retain his 200 supporters, the other would be a more radical coalition approach with a portion of his party and most of the Democratic votes.  The latter might require him to agree to share House governance rules that are currently also being debated with the extremists.

Either requires direct negotiation with Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries, or his designated choice--there aren't going to be breakaway Democratic Members he can seduce for the additional votes he needs.  Here's a summary of what Jeffries should expect: 

1. Whatever concessions McCarthy was making to his extremists are cancelled;
2. No election deniers will be named to any House committees;
3. A free vote on the John Lewis Voting Right Act; and 
4. McCarthy's commitment to a timely vote on raising the debt ceiling and his support to pass it. 

I don't think the Democrats really can ask for more, at least in the minimal case, and #1 and #2 will be an easy agreement.  Some of the proposed measures designed to allow more participation from backbench Members may also be agreeable to both parties. 

World Cup, and Other Games Afoot

The Global Footie Floodtide

I saw, but did not read, the article in The Atlantic recommending a boycott of the Qatar World Cup in November.  With all respect to the esteemed author, I already knew the arguments, and it didn't matter.  

I'm sure most fans of the game felt the same way.  Notions that FIFA is corrupt, that the host country is undeserving, and that the host country is pushing their workers too hard against an unrealistic schedule--all of those have been raised often in past Cup experience.  FIFA, Qatar, guilty as charged, I'm sure.  As an example of excessive extravagance and waste, I cite those beautiful stadia--what good are they, now?   

I watched most of it, without guilt.  (At least the ones starting after 7 a.m. MST, which were the great majority of them.) The competition was excellent, real effort throughout.  In those rare games without two fully engaged, motivated teams the results showed. 

The tournament was full of those exciting moments with one attacker going head-to-head with the goalie.  In live play, they arose most often through the counter-attack, but also there were all those penalty kicks, both the regulation ones and then the match tiebreakers in the elimination rounds.  Not so many goals from set pieces, own goals and deflections, or ball-pressure-driven planned chaos in the goal area, this time around.  

The Cup leads uniquely to an identification of the star player with the national team and thus with the nation, and this year's tourney played that to advantage.  Number one for me was Mbappe (France), again.  It will be interesting over the longer run to see if he can challenge the late superstar Pele's three World Cup wins, having come so close to his second.   Neymar (Brazil) and Harry Kane (England) had their moments to shine before ultimate disappointment, as did personal favorite Luka Modric (Croatia).

The team that was the potential mold-breaker was Netherlands (?) Not their defeat of our Christian Pulisic (USA); that was according to form. The Dutch team's game with eventual Cup champion Leonel Messi (Argentina) in the quarterfinals was critical to the tournament, especially when Croatia upset Brazil later in that round (due to some bad luck and a hot goalie)+    The Orange's lack of a single 'shooting star' showed in that showdown, until substitute Wout Weghorst scored twice in the last 10 minutes to send the game to extra time.  Then, in the penalties, it showed when first taker was their captain, defenseman Virgil Van Dyk, who missed, en route to a penalty-kick rout.  

I do feel their day will come, maybe in 2026 if Cody Gakpo rises to become the star by then.  The youthful USMNT performed well, and if Pulisic develops better working partnerships (maybe with Aaronson?), with home-field advantage they could shoot to match Morocco's surprise run to the semifinals this year. That would be two full steps up, but it's possible if the team can maintain its positive momentum. Remember the historical pattern, though (broken only once, in 2014):  if the World Cup is in Europe, a European team wins; if elsewhere, a South American team.  

Drops of The Other Foot

I want to give a shout of acclaim to big-time college football for doing something right--that is, if they follow through.  The planned expansion of their playoffs from four teams all the way to 12 is a bold move that I salute, both from the standpoint of broadening that competition and improving their marketing.   

It (the CFP, the College Football Playoff) certainly was in the best light on New Years' Eve with the two semifinal playoff games, proving that there is life beyond the SEC and Big 10 (and Clemson, if you wish) and showcasing the drama as never before.  Purists will point out that the scores, 51-45 and 42-41, reflect massive and frequent defensive lapses alongside some wonderful offensive execution, but making way for offense to shine is the game now, echoing current NFL practice.  

I watched most of those two games on ESPN's experimental "Skycast" telecast, and it is a phenomenon.  No commentators, just the stadium announcer and crowd noise, with the visuals provided by the cameras on the overhead wires, facility with which (to follow action and individuals or zoom in) is now first-rate.  Instant replays come in through a side box; the bottom line shows some summary stats and the previous play result.  It is much more like "watching a game" then the usual "watching a telecast of the game".  The downside is that I expect it would only work at certain stadiums at this point. 

As for the NFL, this is the season when I do watch.  The playoffs seem to be later each year; they certainly are larger, as they go from 12 to 14 teams.  The trick in this planning exercise (post-season sizing) is to bring in all of the teams you might want, without bringing in too many embarrassments.  With expanded playoffs, you have the chance that a hot team could barely make it, but then have the momentum for a possible surprise run, something which is necessary for general fan interest.  It looks like there will be competition for that "coveted 7th spot" (a probable first-round loser) in each of the NFL Conference playoffs, which would fulfill the alternate objective, providing some focus for the final weekend of the regular season. * It doesn't always work that way:  this year, baseball's playoff spots were fairly cut and dried at the margin, but the ones who made it in last were worthwhile once the postseason began.  

Round Ball, Solid Floor

..and a horizontal, round goal 10 feet off the ground.  The simplicity of the offensive scheme in basketball gives great advantage to the prospect of scoring (goaltending not allowed!), so the real challenge is to play effective defense (without fouling).  That applies especially to the NBA playoffs, which is the true objective.  One could be justified in tuning out the NBA regular season, though I love the game too much for that.  The Top 16 playoff approach that has been in place for decades (and criticized as long for being too broad) is now even more expansive, with 20 teams gaining a postseason:  a team need only finish in the top 10 of its conference (out of 15) to have a chance, though the real game is to finish in the top 6 of the conference and avoid the deadly "play-in" round. 

Whether by design or accident, the league's conference competitions seem to have sorted themselves around that first-6/top-10 scheme.  As an example, the Eastern Conference playoffs, long an afterthought in the NBA Finals tournament, now should feature five championship-worthy teams, and a spirited battle for 6th (my pick would be Cleveland).  Boston and Milwaukee are proven factors in the Finals picture, and Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Miami would qualify as well, if they should emerge from the regular season intact.   Meanwhile, the Western Conference lacks standout teams so far, as recent conference champions Phoenix and defending NBA champs Golden State have regressed, so it seems headed for a 10-team standings mudfest in the final weeks of the season and through the play-in round.. 

Tuning out the regular season in college basketball seems even more appropriate; not much occurs before the New Year worth noting. College basketball is a coaches' game, and a game of defensive organization, something that has to be rebuilt each season.  Turnover is so great that it takes a couple of months of regular-season games for the teams that can jell into tourney contenders to play enough together in order to do so.  At least it's that way for my team, the U. of Kentucky, and John Calipari's "one-and-done" guys.  This year it's different, though:  the Wildcats return last year's college Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe, a bulky post scorer and ace rebounder--who can shoot free throws, too!  Somehow they seem to be having the same problems, though, and we'll see whether they can play in March.

Easiest Prediction:  PredictIt to Die

Unless there is some dramatic, unexpected reversal in Federal commodities regulation policy, the domestic online political prediction marketplace PredictIt will come to an end very soon.  February 15 is the end date for all trading; no new markets have been added in several months and, with the midterm elections markets finally all settled, less than two dozen remain, few with any real interest from participants. The last World markets (i.e., scope outside the US), where I liked to hang out, closed with the New Year. 

 I made about 40% gain on my portfolio in this year's midterm elections.  That's not really very satisfactory, given that I anticipated correctly the outcome of  90% of the contested statewide elections , as well as the overall results.  I did too much hedging, in the dismal weeks before the vote, and wasted money on dreamy longshot hopes (Mandela Barnes, Tim Ryan, Cheri Beasley, the exotic R-Senate/D-House outcome, etc.).  That's endgame behavior for you.   

My approach all along, refined by a disastrous flame-out (on a 'sure thing') in the Rasmussen Markets of 2008, was for long-term survival and indulging my desires, conditioned by good sense and risk management, as a low-investment hobby, a/k/a cheap entertainment.  Given this, I did a fair amount of analysis, no research at all, and a lot of shit-posting in the robustly incorrect Comments areas. So I survived and enjoyed, at least until this timely but premature demise of the site which we must now expect.**

Game of the Year

The full-fledged release of Online Sadistic Whist surpasses all else that occurred in 2022.  It is now open to all comers, in limited release.  We will happily provide details; please respond here. 

+The other game which shaped the finals was England-France, the one that I missed watching due to other commitments.

* The other last-week focus the NFL seeks, and apparently will get this year, is the battle for the 1st spot, which is truly to be coveted as it is now the only one getting a first-round bye. 

** The following is my prediction on the hottest topic there: What will be the resolution on the dozen or so markets going beyond Feb. 15?  (None has been announced, and the time draws near.)  The calculation which is presented as "Market Investment"for each market--taking into account the risk mitigation from multiple No bets--will be returned to traders, just a few weeks after the close of trading. 

 Cash withdrawn before then will be subject to the 5% withdrawal fee, but that money will not be, as the PredictIt managers would want to avoid the charge of profit-taking, which I suspect is the main reason the CFTC has revoked their continuing operation.  It was billed as a research project, and it will provide oodles of data to review the realities of mass prediction.   If they behave, and close down without scandal, they might be permitted to reopen again someday, with a slightly-changed economic model.