Half-Wrong

I have to say I relied too much on the "snapshots" which the polls provided for my forecast, as I just built my view of the consensus of the polls. then used my judgement to apply the remaining percentages (8% on the Dem side, 5% on the Rep side) to get the numbers to 100. It turned out that the correct answer would've come from giving all 8% of the Dem undecideds to Hillary; far was I from imagining that one; I misread the situation as being one in which Obama continued to have the momentum in the state.

I got a few of the numbers right: Kucinich 1% (too easy), Dem others 1%, McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Thompson 1%. For some reason, there's still only 96% of precincts reporting--the day after.

Here are the combined quantities of votes, in thousands, at present:
HRC 111, Obama 103, McCain 87, Romney 74, Edwards 48, Huck 26, Giuliani 20, Paul 18, Richardson 13, Kucinich 4, Thompson 3, Hunter 1.

I would say the biggest disappointment of the night was Richardson's--behind Giuliani and Paul--and the question is whether he wants to hang in until the Nevada caucuses or whether to admit the hopeless state he finds himself in. I do see he has 17 delegates committed to him at this point (CNN).

Obama got the turnout once again, so I don't find his result disappointing. He's now got a fully mobilized and motivated opponent.

I don't think the S.C. and Nevada results will be that significant for the two leaders--more for Edwards, who needs to justify his continuing role (or give it up for Barack!). On the Republican side, there will be much sound and fury signifying nothing.

The Unofficial National Primary on Feb. 5 is now revealed to be truly the main event. Strategic use of resources will be crucial to winning the most delegates that night, which should translate into the respective nominations.