UNP (-D) Victory Defined for Feb. 5, 2008

Continuing on the theme of Edwards and Obama, if we anticipate the coverage for the UNP(-D), it will focus on three areas:

1) total delegates won or pledged;
2) California popular vote, and the complex battle for the state's "rich harvest" (of delegates); and
3) the total popular vote across the 22 states (call it the "Apples and Oranges 22-state Sampler").

Winged Victory would be 50%+1 of Democratic delegates won or pledged coming out of Feb. 5. Perceived Victory would be pluralities, but not majorities, in 1), 2), and 3. Pluralistic Victory would be anything else.

Obama must seek to deny! (as Clyde Frazier would put it) victory to Hillary on Feb. 5 in order to be able to claim a win at the end of the night. I would argue that Edwards helps Obama's cause in the first two elements (note: those are the ones that matter, ultimately). In the third, the UNP Popular Vote, Edwards' alternative to Obama for anti-Hillary voters might be needed to keep HRC from reaching 50% in the third.

You will hear the opposite from the pundits: that Edwards' presence is preventing Obama from achieving a majority. I don't believe the majority for Obama is there yet; what he must do is keep punishing HRC in contested primaries and prevent her from attaining a delegate majority through the states where he has little to no organization formed.