The debate now about Obama's gradual consolidation of African-American votes, and about state-by-state strategies of the leading candidates, reminds me of my post in March, 2007: The Big Ticket. I still feel that Obama has a better chance for a 40-40-20 (popular vote percentage) win than a 50-50 one (with Edwards out).
I stick by most of what I said ten months ago--for the nomination, Clinton 50% probability (to have it mostly assured on Feb. 5), Obama 40% (if he beats Clinton in CA), 10% all other possibilities (including a long battle in the primaries after the Unofficial National Primary). I had the winners of Iowa and NH backwards (though we tend to forget that the much bally-hooed NH win by Clinton was by 2%), but most of the dynamics correct.
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