Turkey's Presidential Election

Today is the day that Turkey has the first round of its Presidential election.  This is under a new constitution, approved by a narrow (and disputed) margin in a referendum, one that gives expanded powers to the head of state.   The vote today is a critical step in President Erdogan's bid to achieve Putinist rule in his country for himself and his party.

The usually-fractured opposition has allied itself, sort of.  Some of the parties came together around agreed candidates, but the real news is an agreement among all of the opposition parties to rally around the non-Erdogan candidate in the second round, if there is no majority.  The fractional approach in this round is a tactic to maximize non-Erdogan vote in the first round and try to deny him a majority.  It may be very close, once again, and once again, Erdogan may win with the help of some friends' ballot-box stuffing.

Still, I agree with the opposition's tactic of participating in the election--not boycotting it--even though there is hardly a level playing field (the media is overwhelmingly under Erdogan's thumb, and the integrity of voting certification is questionable).  The boycott approach--tried recently in Venezuela--makes it certain that nothing positive can be accomplished, whereas a forcefully-contested political battle, carried all the way to its end, could have a massive effect, even if Erdogan gets what he wants from the election itself.

As I've expressed before, what happens in Turkey is pivotal for many different geopolitical frames--the European Union (defeat of Erdogan could re-open the possibility of Turkey's entering it), the Middle East (Turkey's a player in the Syria civil war, and is a leading participant in all the other regional negotiations/disputes), and international relations with Russia.  The re-emergence of strong civil democratic values in the country--something Erdogan has been repressing particularly heavily in recent years--could be a turning point in the politics of Islamic countries, as well, if he were eventually defeated--in this election, or in the runoff, or by mobilization of opposition forces afterward.

I do not have positive expectations on the actual count, as the stakes may be too high for Erdogan not to interfere, but the fact that the opposition has jelled is very meaningful, at least at this moment.

Here and here is additional information which I found interesting on this event.