Anthony Kennedy

The swing vote on the Supreme Court submitted his resignation today, going out as he went in:  a Republican regular.  He held back on his plan, waiting to see how he could be most useful to the party (staying in longer or going), and when Trump's White House asked him if he would resign, he gave them what they wanted.

Unlike most things the Trumpsters do, this was a carefully prepared plan.  Trump has gone out of his way to ingratiate himself with Kennedy, and the White House, after consulting with Majority Turtle McConnell, decided to push the button. 

It is a sad fact that the timing is more about giving the Republican, party something new to make their campaign around, motivating their still pissed-off base to show up, than it is out of concern that they have to move before the elections' result is reflected in the new Senate. 

I really don't think that fear of a Democratic takeover drove the calculations, they were just making sure.  And there is surely nothing the Democrats can do to block this right-wing takeover ploy, if the Republicans stick together.  For Trump, that means picking a nominee who is smart enough not to give away his positions on ending abortion, undoing gay marriage, reversing Obamacare's constitutionality, and other outrages. The Democrats can not successfully filibuster this past the end of this Congress, though they could make the electoral campaign season difficult.  But that would only hurt the many Democrats who need to campaign to protect their seats.  So, unless Susan Collins and some other Republican will stand up against this nominee--I see a 49-49 vote as a possibility, with Pence the tiebreaker--Trump could indeed pick someone who is a party hack, like Kennedy.

Many Tea Party types were furious at Kennedy, who did not always vote with the four extremists (at least three, with Chief Justice Roberts the fourth) and go along with the right wing view.   Many thought he was too unpredictable, but I would characterize him as very much a moderate Republican with libertarian tendencies.  Just the kind of Republican who it is hard to find today, and it seems Kennedy was really a little less independent, a little more willing to play ball with his hack movement  than he may have seemed.

He may be remembered for some decisions that enabled progress, but he will also be remembered for this craven retirement and for Bush v. Gore.   Now the new swing vote will be Roberts, unless Trump goes for someone ideologically to Roberts' left.  That would not be a bad strategy if the goal were a quick approval, but I really think the point is to drag it out and point to the Democrats' united, but futile, negative stance during the campaign.  The Democrats will respond "Merrick Garland" and the public will say "Who?"

The Democratic organizations will cite this struggle as a reason to give them money.  This argument makes no sense to me.  All promises that anything Democratic supporters can do will make a difference are illusionary (except maybe those who reside in Alaska, Arizona, or Maine).  The real point is that this must be the LAST Republican Supreme Court Justice.  Ever.