Sports Update

World Cup Knockout Rounds
48 of the 64 games have been played, and still we know very little about the ultimate outcome of the World Cup.

I posted my excuses for not seeing much of the first round in a comment recently; despite that, I am willing to stick my neck out a bit and look forward to the rest of the tournament.   It is only after the first round that one can actually do this, because now we can see the matchups ahead.  The big change in the outlook from what one would have foreseen going in was the unexpected elimination of Germany--kudos to Mexico and South Korea, who defeated them (and for that matter, Sweden, who were unlucky to lose to them). 

The next two rounds can be thought of as little grouplets of four--teams need to get through two wins to make it to the semifinals, which is generally the mark of a successful World Cup campaign (unless you're for Brazil or Germany).  The semifinal and the final are showtime; the drama is at the center.  There is much less drama, or glory, in these next two rounds, but with no single team standing out, there will be the fog of battle, with four teams emerging.

Top Left grouplet  (round of 16 games today) - What I would describe as an ugly group.  France and Uruguay are two of the three teams who won all three games in the first round (Belgium is the other), but that means nothing now--it is more a reflection of the opponents they drew.  Argentina barely survived, as they also barely made the field, but they are still there.  And Portugal played the in the most exciting match of the first round  (the 3-3 draw with Spain).  This is a bloody mess; I would guess Uruguay gets through.

Top Right grouplet (Sunday) - Spain vs. Russia, in Moscow, is an interesting game; Spain should be a big favorite but Russia is playing well.  The key game in the group should be the quarterfinal between Spain and Croatia, and I would lean toward picking the Croats, in an upset. 

Bottom Left (Monday) - For me, the two teams that most look like world-dominating Cup winners are Belgium and Brazil, who should meet in the quarterfinal.  If they get through their next games:  I don't see Belgium having trouble with Japan, but the Brazil-Mexico game could be a highlight of the tournament.  Let's go with Brazil from this group.

Bottom Right (Tuesday) - This is a fairly weak grouplet.  England has looked good; they have a good test against Colombia, though Colombia may not have their star player, James Rodriguez.  The winner of that match should be favored over the Sweden-Switzerland winner (two countries whose shorthand names always confuse).  OK, England.

As for the look-ahead to the final, I would ask the reader:  is Moscow part of Europe?  If the answer is yes, then pick England, Croatia (or Spain/Belgium); if not, then the winner should be Brazil (or Uruguay or Colombia).   This based on historical precedent of location of games/region of winner, which has been broken only once in recent history (2014, when Germany won in Brazil--that wasn't supposed to happen, ask any Brazilian).

The predominance of the European and Latin American teams in getting through the first round is obvious:  no teams from Africa (Senegal deserved it but was edged out by Japan though a hinky tiebreaker), Japan the only one from Asia, and Mexico the single standout from the North America/Caribbean configuration.  Old school.

MLB:  The halfway point
The pennant races are a tale of two leagues with completely different stories:  it is the best of times for the National League, with 9 or 10 teams battling for the five postseason spots.  Nothing is assured, and there are some genuine surprises, like all three division leaders at this point (Atlanta instead of Washington, Milwaukee instead of Chicago, and Arizona instead of Los Angeles).  Those three favored teams are also very much in the mix, though, and their proven talent may win out.  There should be some exciting races which go down to the end.

It will be the worst of times for the American League, for which all five teams for the postseason are virtually assured, barring a collapse.  There will be an attempt to hype the importance of the Yankees vs. Red Sox for first in the East, or for Houston vs. Seattle in the West, and currently there is a hype effort in favor of the Oakland A's chances, but the A's are seven games out from the second wild card spot.  They are the only apparent challenger to the Assured Five (Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, and Mariners).

The most interesting baseball story is the continuing emergence of exciting young players.  This year the focus is on Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves and two-way start Shohei Ohtani of the Angels (I keep thinking Acuna-Ohtani, sounds like "Hakuna Matata").  Both are recovering from injuries right now but have shown huge potential.  Rookie pitchers are taking longer to emerge (and Ohtani may have to give up on the pitching portion of his emerging stardom), but there are some strong second-year efforts from Blake Snell (Tampa Bay), Aaron Nola (Philadelphia), and reliever Josh Hader (Milwaukee).

In terms of hitting stars, many familiar names among the leaders (Trout, Harper, Judge, Betts, Arenado), but also some surprising ones--J.D. Martinez, Jesus Aguilar, Nick Markakis, Scooter Gennett.  Overall, though the AL race looks dreary for the second half, the game looks healthy to me.

NBA Offseason Shuffle
The stasis at the top--Golden State vs. Cleveland in the Finals for the fourth year in a row--had to give way --thankfully--and the Warriors aren't going anywhere.  So the question for this offseason is whether any team can brew up a viable challenger to them.  Last year's effort--the Houston Rockets with MVP James Harden and Chris Paul came ever so close (the other synthetic effort, with Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, and Paul George on Oklahoma City, fell way short).   The buzz is that the Lakers are trying to put together a super-team; I like the Celtics if they get one more star.  The main pieces are Lebron James, who has once again decided to take his talents away from Cleveland; Kawhi Leonard, who somehow became disenchanted with the best franchise in sports, the San Antonio Spurs, and George.   All (for next season) will be revealed soon.

Finally, the college basketball outlook for next season is starting to clarify, now that the NBA draft is over (who's left?) and the commitments from incoming freshmen/transfers are nearing completion.  Kentucky is standing tall as the favorite, with yet another top freshman recruiting season, a key transfer, and a couple of valuable holdovers (despite having six underclassmen players drafted by the pros).  That's pretty exciting for me and the other Wildcat fans.