Games of the Year

Three of them in this week (a special one, ending tonight, Monday), for three different sports.  Let's start with the prospective one, to be played tonight.

Warriors at Rockets - Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference Finals series
It's not for all the marbles, but it would give them a pretty good edge in the tiddlywinks battle for the Championship.  Either Western Conference winner will be a prohibitive favorite over the Cleveland LeBrons, who gutted out their own Game 7 win last night against the Celtics.

The big question of tonight's game is whether Rockets' point guard Chris Paul will be available.  He injured his hamstring in the final minute of his team's win in Game 5; had to sit for their thrashing in Game 6 at Golden State.

I have often seen a pattern with the recovery from hamstring injuries in baseball.  The mistake, from the point of view of best handling of the player, is returning him too early; then the player can re-injure himself, more severely the second time.  It's in everybody's interest, in the long run, to be careful, but this is different.  I am not sure about the starting lineup, but I would look to see Paul for about 15-20 minutes tonight.  Coach D'Antoni will want to maximize Paul's participation in key ball-handling situations, like to break a Warriors' run, or, if possible, down the stretch.

Game Preview - Houston is a 6-point underdog--at home, the benefit of outplaying the Warriors for the best record in the regular season--a point-spread that may become volatile as the tip-off approaches.  I expect nerves and low-shooting percentages early, in the second half, the emphasis shifts to defense (against transition, for example).

 Eventually some of the many keen outside shooters on both teams will emerge as accurate tonight,, which will make for an explosive Late Third/Early Fourth Period (it will only seem geologic, though the nose level could be volcanic), making a bet on the Over/Under very tricky.   Key matchup for me is the one inside, the battle led by Draymond Green vs. Clint Capela--who will be the one to make the right moves underneath during that critical period, and who will get the fouls?
Refereeing is critical in a Game 7; they will "let them play" up to a cerain point, then tight to get control during that stretch.  At the end, though, if the game's outcome depends on a critical possession, the pressure on the referee can become severe, leading to unpredictable outcomes.  Personally, I see the game coming down to something like that (as Games 4 and 5 did), in which case I'd give the home team a real puncher's chance for the upset.

That assumes Paul is able to be on the court at the end for such a finale.  We don't know, but bettors putting money down at this point are weighting the chances of a close finish with Paul vs. an easier Warriors' win without him. (The pros will be able to adjust the odds in their favor with late bets, perhaps with inside information on how Paul's stepping as he's coming into the locker room. Sports gambling, it's a thing, and it will soon be legal nationwide.)

 In terms of the Finals which will anticlimactically follow tonight's game, I will do the obvious and pick the Western Conference winner against the overmatched Cavaliers in six games.  Though it could be five.

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool - Champions League Final -
From what I've seen, the games in the final of this, the premier club championship, that of the region (EU, plus a few) can be all-out affairs with drama in the final moments.  This one wasn't like that, as the end was certain given the events of the previous 20-30 minutes, but the second half had more than it's share of drama.

The match-up could hardly have been more classic, in European club history term; both are storied franchises.  The Kiev arena looked suitably spectacular. The unusual fact about the game is that both finished in safe Championship League-qualifying positions in their respective domestic leagues, but well out of contention for first.   It suggests a subtle strategy may have been in play, a little risky but successful.  (Liverpool's automatic qualification--as fourth in the English Premier League--was not assured until the last weekend of league play, and second in the final would not have qualified them.) it was a good match of proven veterans (Real) vs. young upstarts, playing hot.

The hottest player coming into the match was Mohammed Salah of Liverpool.  Real captain Sergio Ramos took care of him a third of the way through with a wrestling tackle that sprained Mo's shoulder and took him out of the game (Egyptian fans are praying it will not take him completely out of their World Cup appearance in June.)  The balance of the game shifted slightly toward Real after that, but it was still scoreless at halftime.

The first big break came on a stunning error by Liverpool goalie Loris Karius.  On a routine clearance, he threw the ball to the side, too close to Real's Karim Benzema, who stuck out his leg and deflected it right into the goal. Liverpool battled back to tie it, which set up the winning goal for Real, a classic bicycle-kick, over the head, touch off a long cross by storied Welsh forward Gareth "Christian" Bale.  Bale, who was hugely overpaid as a Real player until that very moment, had come in as a reserve minutes before--so give credit to Real's coach, the legendary Zinedine Zidane, who was as wowed as everyone else by the brilliance of the strike.  Bale scored another, later, on a long shot that Karius misplayed, but that was the moment that will go forever into the Champions League highlights film.

Baseball Regular Season - Indians vs. Astros 
To be honest, there was another titanic single-game struggle in the battle for dominance in the American League recently, with two completely different teams, the Yankees and Red Sox, with a similar story of drama.  It depends on whether you credit more those two emerging monsters of the AL East (New York and Boston) or the non-East teams which have been most successful in the past couple of postseasons.  The Astros and Indians are both slightly ahead in close races in their divisions now and look viable if they get into the postseason, regardless of where their regular-season record will rank among playoff teams.

The matchup of two quality starters (Gerrit Cole for Houston; Trevor Bauer for Cleveland) produced a  fairly normal 3-2 Indians lead through seven innings.  The Astros, led by superstar sparkplug second-baseman Jose Altuve, on an incredible hitting roll, broke through for six runs off Bauer and relievers in the eighth.  Then, in the bottom of the ninth, Cleveland came back against closer Ken Giles and others in the Astros' bullpen for five runs to send it to extra innings.   Each team scored a run in the 13th inning, then Evan Gattis won it in the 14th, 10-9, with a walk-off homer (his second of the game) for Cleveland, 10-9.

No doubt, there will be other games more decisive; in the postseason, certainly, and probably in the regular season as well, both will remember this one though.

Bonus Coverage:  World Cup Preview
I'm no sure how much I will be following this year's soccer World Cup event in Russia, starting in about three weeks.  I'm going to be very busy with a move, and frankly, the three national teams I root most for--the US, Italy, and Holland--were each eliminated in the qualifications (the US, most embarrassingly so).

The big question is whether there will be a rematch of the marquee matchup of the 2014 World Cup, when Germany humiliated Brazil in the semifinal, 7-1, en route to winning the championship.  Brazil has performed brilliantly in the difficult South American qualifications, and Germany's team is largely intact.  If I read the draw correctly, they would only meet in the final--unless one of them does not win its group, in which case they would meet early, in the round of 16.   The general rule, which Germany rudely violated in Brazil in 2014 by crushing Brazil's expectations and Argentina's hopes in the final, is that a European team wins when the Cup is held in Europe and a South American wins otherwise.  Moscow is, technically, in Europe, so that would point to Germany (or some other European team).

After those two, there is a second tier of teams that could have entirely credible ambitions of reaching the final, or even winning it all:  Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and France.   England seems to have one of its better teams, as does Mexico and South Korea.  The top World Cup teams are all packed with international stars; the differentiating factor is how well they mesh on those relatively rare occasions when they all get together.

I will be rooting for Iceland to duplicate the magic it showed in the 2016 European Cup, when it pulled off upsets until finally being defeated by the tourney winner, Portugal.  Iceland will do well if it can finish in the top two of a tough group, with Argentina, Croatia, and Nigeria, and make it to the round of 16.