Showdowns

 We'll start light but add weight below. 

Reds v. Braves - The collision of two hot teams Friday night--the Reds on an 11-game win streak and the Braves on a 7-game one of their own--produced what must surely be one of the great regular-season games of this increasingly vital season.  In the first of a three-game series, the Reds spotted Atlanta a 5-0 lead in the first inning, but had made it up by the third and took the lead.  Joey Votto's triumphant return featured here with two clutch homers, but it was newly-minted superstar Elly De La Cruz who hit for the cycle (homer, double, single, and a thrilling triple) who stole the show.  The Braves came up with back-to-back-to-back homers in the 8th, but Cincinnati held on for a 11-10 win. 

The second game was reversed, as the Reds' ninth-inning rally fell a run short, ending their best streak since the 19th century.  De La Cruz' cycle recalled the Reds' legendary great Eric Davis and that team filled with young stars that came from nowhere to win the 1990 World Series.  This team does have that capability to hit anyone, and their relief pitching is rising toward the quality level of those Nasty Boys of '90--they will need that, as despite some young talent, their starting pitching will never be enough in that ballpark.  I suspect Atlanta may make this rivalry look a bit more one-sided when the Reds visit Atlanta.

Alcaraz v. Djokovic - This is the indicated tennis final for the upcoming Wimbledon men's singles championship.  They are the clear #1 and #2; it's not easy to envision either losing prior to this showdown.  If the envisaged final happens, it will be decisive in establishing King of the Hill for the year.  Djokovic is trying to run victory laps in his Grand Slam competition with Federer and Nadal, and Carlos is ready to try to dislodge him, which a Wimbledon win should do. 

They are both all-around talents with all the shots, excellent tactical ability, and extraordinary court coverage (legs).  Initially, it seemed that Carlitos was just following in Rafael Nadal's Spanish steps, but I now see more similarity with Djokovic and his approach.  We may see in Wimbledon whether he can match his mental discipline. 

Prigozhin v. Gerasimov - The Russian head of the infamous Wagner mercenary force brought his feud with the incompetent, corrupt Russian Defense establishment out into the open, so much so that even brainwashed Russian citizens would notice it. Though dramatic, I would minimize it as having singular importance, being another example of the chaotic Russian war effort.  While Prigozhin's force moved through the interior of Russia in a way that was shocking, he shied away from confronting Putin himself.  And Putin, for his part, was willing to grant Prigozhin the favored exile status he has given other oligarchs in the past,  ones who do not challenge Vladimir's reign. 

But, in fact Prigozhin violated that trust, the understanding between superior and subordinate, and Putin, while sympathetic to his complaint, will not forgive. I would bet on the parlay that neither Prigozhin, nor the general in charge of the Ukraine campaign (Gerasimov)will survive beyond spring of 2024 in a form we would recognize as living.  

I would have to say that this moment--when Wagner is standing down and the Chechen forces were pulled back to counter the Wagner threat--must be the time for Ukraine to push forward with whatever offensive they can muster, against the weak spots that they identified or that suddenly emerge.  There is still the possibility of a rout, such as occurred on the other side of the Dneiper and in the Kharkiv area earlier on.  Barring that, I look for an armistice (not a peace deal) before winter. 

Trump v. DeSantis - Many of these matchups are in the genre I call "Alien vs. Predator", after the sequel movie pitting monsters.  One roots only for all involved to fall.  In this case, the Crueler than Thou policy competition favors "Marquis" DeSadeness over whiny, vengeful D'Head*  due to DeSantis' more targeted attack (vague though it is). This Republican campaign is beyond that, though-- Alien v. Predator v. King Kong v. Mothra v. Godzilla.  Shells flying in all directions. 

My betting on RNom on PredictIt, one of the few, but very salient, markets still traded there, is No on both headliners, looking for the combined second shoe from Jack Smith and Georgia's indictments to take the wind from Trump's back near year's end.  The opening will be too late for DeSantis, though; I see a path for a third person to snatch it, whoever that might be could hardly be worse than the winner of the current featured bout. 

Roe v. Wade - (Just to remind, "Roe" was the complainant seeking legal access to abortion; Wade represented those who would limit it) -  Wade picked up a significant win with the Dobbs decision; Roe countered with the '22 midterms.  Like Ali v. Frazier, the third showdown will have some finality, as the Democrats seemed determined to make it front-and-center, while the Republicans are playing up their pro-life credentials during this pre-primary season in a way that will make it hard for them to hide next November.  If the Democrats win in '24, Roe will gain some legislative backing, whereas if the GOP wins, the question will be simply whether there will be Federal prohibitions (the 15-week standard seems to be a consensus position for Republicans) or will a chaotic state-by-state mess remain. 

In the meantime, the numbers are starting to roll in for the first year of Wade's revival:  How many abortions averted, how many diverted, and how many lives ruined.   I would say it is more the awareness of the fragility of our personal rights that is the issue than those numbers, while on the right the danger of overreach is everpresent. 

Humans v. Gaia - This is one of those battles in which, the more you win, the more you lose.  We are definitely winning the climate change this season (as opposed to the embattled less-climate change faction).  Excessive rain, excessive temperature, and aggravated cyclonic storms are the themes for the "temperate" and "subtropical" zones (not sure about the arctic ones yet).  El Nino will ensure record global mean temperatures this year.  

Politically, the "we still have lots of fossil fuels, what's the hurry?" faction is ascendant. (Also here, right, Gov. Lujan Grisham?) The problems with relying too much on electricity to replace fossil fuels are many (batteries, grid leakage, the fossil fuel sourcing for much electricity).  Nuclear is raising its head in various forms to fill the gaps in timing from renewables, which will be a mixed response at best. 

I am encouraged by the recognition in some of the areas impacted by the current heat wave (in Arizona, Texas, and much of the Deep South) that these are problems that will recur.  One part of the answer is the establishment of public "cooling centers".  If we must air condition the masses, this is the efficient way to do it. 

I am not one who believes Gaia will aim for total annihilation of humanity in order to cleanse itself--She is wise enough to know that we will do it for ourselves, sooner or later.  We will survive our climate snafu, but the issue is, as always, quality of life.  In this our track record is poor and our current level (better than ever, but) vulnerable. 

* I have decided to cease referring to the Criminal Traitor Former President as "Dickhead", as the reference shows insufficient respect for the male organ.