Now, More Leisurely

Fearless. No panic here.  And I object to the term "bed-wetting"--find another term, preferably a one-word one already in the language.  I'm not going to help you. 

We are now, most likely, in the "Biden Weakened" scenario I covered back in September.  We are not yet in the "Biden Out" one.  And there is still a chance opinion will snap back magnetically to its poles, a reversion to the "Status Quo" of a 49-47 race, pick your leader. *  In fact, it's unclear whether we've moved from that in the general polling horserace question; the results so far are mixed, but with concerning signals from swing states.

Examining that data, leaked via Puck from a polling report done for a Biden PAC,  I will explain exactly what happened from the debate.  The document shows a comparison of answers, from May to post-debate, to the question whether

 "Biden should step aside and suspend his campaign so a different Democrat can
run against Donald Trump"

vs. the opposite, that he should continue.  That went from 43-38-19 (step aside-continue-not sure) to 52-32-16.  That tracks to 9 of the previous 19% "Not Sure" moving to "Step Aside" and 6 of the previous 38% "Continue" moving to "Not sure".  Count me as among those 6%. 

"I...Finally...Beat...Medicare"

Yes, I was one of those 60 million or so who witnessed live (on TV) those immortal words. Actually, I do know what he meant,++ but that's a different discussion.  His performance that night was, in a word, pitiful.  It was really that bad, from the opening hoarse cough to the failed opportunity in his closing, when he mumbled statistics of achievements instead of offering a vision for the future.  He seemed to be a case of too much cramming of information and too little meditation or sleep.  Or the wrong medication, of course--he did have that strange look in his eyes.

But I also mean that word "pitiful" in the sense that I have pity for him.  First of all, with regard to the alleged jet-lag, I am sympathetic, having just gone through it. Your rhythms are disrupted due to transoceanic travel, and they don't necessarily respond the way you want.  When you get older, the things that go first are recovery and stamina--that's authoritative from me.  Second, there is the fact that this is the hardest job in the world, requiring the most of the office-holder, but giving them overwhelming power and responsibility.  There is no way around this fact, for the present.  He has done four years, and should be able to cheerfully go off into the sunset ("Silver Rider").  Things can go quickly, at that age, but I'm not convinced that has happened.

The reason he has not even fully considered the thought is the monster who was across the stage from him, who was busy saying monstrous things while trying not to appear quite as monstrous, this time. I briefly considered Trump's implied offer when he said, in effect, "the only reason I am running at all is because he (Biden) has done so badly".  Does he mean that he would drop out of the race, if only Biden would?  Then I realized:  Trump has to run, and win, or go to prison after the election. So, that wouldn't work. 

The third reason I pity him is that now, after this debate, he must go out on the campaign trail, in a serious way (my wife sagely recommends Townhalls, in which he has done well) for days, or at least a week or so, in which he will be examined microscopically.  As Speaker Pelosi said, it's now fair game.   After that, with additional data, he can make the considered, unhurried decision:  do I want to go through 3+ more months of this?  I will live with that decision. 

The deadline, apparently, is a few days before the party's National Committee has scheduled a "meeting" later this month to "nominate" Biden, so that he will be on the ticket in Ohio.  If they don't do it by some date, one that is before the convention which would formally nominate him, then there will not be the Democratic nominee on the ballot in Ohio, an unacceptable result (even to Sherrod Brown, who once again has the challenge of his career to hold the seat).   So, this was already set, a moment that could be decisive, though it was supposed to be a formality (like January 6, 2021, say).   

I will say right now that I hope that Biden is up to the challenge, takes it head on, and wins.  If he decides, after a few days of doing it, that he can not keep on doing that for 3+ more months, I hope that he suspends his campaign and endorses VP Kamala Harris to lead the ticket.  Others can throw their hats into the ring, but I'm OK with a quick, decisive outcome (and someone like Secy. Buttigieg as the VP nominee, Harris willing).  All those Democratic Governors can continue to work on how to take the country forward for their 2028 campaigns, which is what they have already been doing. 

*I estimated the probabilities of the seven scenarios just in April as: 

1-Trump Collapse - 30%, 2- Biden Weakened 5%; 3-Chaos - 10%; 4/5/6 Trump/Biden/Both Out - 5%; 7 - "Status Quo" 50% . 

But  at this moment I would say: 

        1 - 5%;  2- 50%; 3- 10%; 4, 6  <1%; 5 - (Biden Out) - 20%; Status Quo 15%.   

The scenario in which we are currently residing is probably the worst for the Democrats' chances in the election, from top to bottom. 

++He was talking about defeating the entrenched bureaucracy around Medicare to lower the cost of insulin.  You're welcome.