Somewhat Rushed Sports Update

 What's the hurry?  I want to get this out before the most critical game in the NBA playoffs is completed.   Basically, they have gone along the lines that I forecast up until now:  the Celtics seemed cruising over a Mavericks team that was the survivor of the chaotic Western Conference playoffs (chaotic, once Minnesota defeated Denver in the Conference semis).  

The Celtics, up 3-0 on the road, got crushed by the Mavericks in Game 4.  Nothing to unusual in itself, one team had much more motivation, there's a lot of it going around (see NHL Stanley Cup Finals).  But something about the way the Mavericks won suggested they were finding the form, based around extraordinary performances from both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving every night, that got them through the West.  

The Celtics could scratch that idea, with one big effort at home tonight.  This is their chance--they have been so close before.  If they fail to take the chance, Game 6 back in Dallas looks shaky, and the Celtics would be then under huge "don't choke" pressure in Game 7.  I have heard that the Celtics are throwing their strategic reserve into the fray--Kristaps Porzingis, whose legs are shaky, but whose shot gives them a fourth option that is nearly unstoppable. 

Not too many of these games remain close throughout.  The classic Celtics clincher back in the day was a run in the late 3rd-quarter to give them a commanding lead.  I will be looking for that, a sign that this time's team is worthy to raise its championship banner next to all those old ones.

The Euros 

If I disrespected the quality of the UEFA Championships (European national soccer teams) before, I should retract it.  The competition brings together all the top teams except Brazil and Argentina (for once, no major omissions in the lineup), with most top players present, and it looks quite open.  France and England are the two betting favorites, though their history in the Euros is not all that great.  Both got 1-0 wins in their first game of group play that were not so overwhelming (though their scoring held down by  game challengers). Spain, Italy, and Germany all showed they are ready in their games, and Portugal (the one major team that has not yet taken the field) is supposed to have the highest-rated squad of all. I'm expecting a high-quality set of games from the quarterfinals on, with the occasional surprise showing the depth of the field. 

Such was the case in today's upset of #2-seeded Belgium by Slovakia.  It was both legitimate and fortunate:  Belgium's Romelu Lukaku, one of the top center forwards of this century, netted twice, seeming to break his longstanding misfortunes in the big games for Belgium, but both were waved off after detailed replay analysis.  Whether Belgium can qualify for the next round might provide a little interest, but what will take over now is analyzing the varieties of how outcomes might affect which teams will face off in the round of 16.  

Baseball

My preseason analysis does not look so good at this point.  The most egregious error was omitting the Mariners, who have opened a good-sized lead over the division's two obvious playoff contenders, the Astros and the defending champion Rangers, both of which are going to have to improve even to make it to wild-card spots.  The second-worst error was disrespecting the Orioles, who have impressed all.   

The cutoff point for the AL third wild-card spot looks like it will be a few games over .500, something like 85 wins.  Right now, there's a clear division between those in and out at that percentage win rate, though there's several teams just below .500, each of which will have to decide whether to go for it at the trade deadline, coming soon.   In the NL, the cutoff will be right at or just below .500, I think, with a whole bunch of teams contending for two spots.  The Reds are among them; they still haven't made the move to acquire a veteran starter of quality, which they will need to do if they want to make it in, and compete within, this year's playoffs.  

As always, I live in fear of another Yankees-Dodgers World Series, this year much more likely than it has been for a decade or more.