Nearly at the Precipice

(Not "At the Precipice of ...Anything.")

 

 

Entering 2024, it is clear that we are there, a massive rock formation of dizzying heights and great danger.  But is it below us, this precipitous drop, or is it above, the possibilities before us almost without limit if we can only....?

Here in the Roadrunner State, we can observe the birds scurrying around, trying to stay out of the heat and find safe pickings, while Wile E. Coyote lurks, threatening the worst. We are not at the cliff's edge yet; we know it's there, though.  

The bill being designed supposedly to feed the militaries of Ukraine, of Israel, of East Asia-not-China, has been stalled by the rising border crisis and policy dispute, inflamed by the wave of migrants currently coming in. This still-unnamed compromise bill is a contradiction within itself, Fortress America with regard to the rest of the world's pressure of migration, but paying out to involve ourselves further in foreign struggles and conflicts.  I hold little hope for its passage; meanwhile, what about the bills to fund the government, some of them expiring January 12? 

To take these cases one by one, briefly:  Ukraine must be reinforced and it will be, one way or another--remember Lend-Lease?  or buying on credit?  Aid to Israel has been delayed long enough and, when it comes, and it will, it should not contain lethal offensive weapons.  Call that an attached string if you want; they need to break off the Netanyahu endless offensive, him included.  "Don't change leader in the middle of a war?"  Ask #Neville Chamberlain~:  If the war is not working, change is indicated, and sooner is then better than later. 

Finally, East Asia-not-China:  The aid to Taiwan that must be given should not be a public matter.  Aid to the Philippines, absolutely.  Singapore, you know it.  Even Thailand, if it's not all poured down the maw of corruption. It goes without saying, direct support to Australia, Korea and Japan.  That is plenty.

So, President Biden declares an emergency and uses it to give Ukraine what it needs.  Trump did it to start exuding his Wall.  Sounds like it will be less-than-SOTA*, as our electronics seem behind Russia's hackers.

Election Cliff, Viewed from Afar

Again, because of our peculiar angles of the distant vista, it's hard to say whether it is a drop-off, or a mountain so tall its top is in the clouds.  Clearly there is a Valley that must be crossed--the dangers there are both known and unknown.  On the other side, it is clear the terrain is rugged, jagged rocks poking through the mist, but after that? 

One simple example for our current dilemma:  Is Nikki Haley a step up or a step down? In quality, we're talking about, for a potential Republican nominee.  No doubt she is less evil than Donald Trump; she doesn't present the threat of immediate authoritarian rule. We can probably survive a campaign of Nikki Haley vs. Anyone (probably not Biden, in that case) without going at each others' throats en masse. 

Now, though, that little bit of a chance, which required a) a surprise second place finish in Iowa; b) a narrow victory or loss vs. Trump in New Hampshire; and (most unlikely of them) c) defeating Trump in her home state of South Carolina, well, that chance seems gone forever.  

There is irony in her befuddled mind before answering that challenging question; she didn't just improvise a bunch of nonsense.  What went through her mind were the evasive answers she had given on the question in the past (of which the anonymous questioner was well aware) and how it had to be played for South Carolina.  Yes, still today, in the state of Tim Scott, South Carolina, where she will no doubt be smeared--after she fails to take second in Iowa or win New Hampshire.  Sorry, Nikki! I really wanted you to punch The Dickhead in his blowhole. .  

I'm pretty sure Donald will name his VP fairly early if things go well.  I'm expecting it to be Kristi Noem; he wants a pretty spokesperson while he deals with some of the consequences of his mischievous putsch. Nikki Haley should not be fooling anyone with her pretense of being a possible VP to Trump; she is not under consideration, and she especially would not be if she were successful in her primary challenges.  She would disavow the notion if it didn't potentially decrease her appeal for less-than-fully-committed Trump supporters. 

It's the Economy, And I Guess I'm Stupid

I certainly draw comfort from the confidence Wall Street is showing these days. Is it possible that they don't think that it will matter whether the Democrats or Republicans sweep the table of power in 2024?  I can't believe that, nor do I believe that they know, better than all others, who will win.  And please don't tell me they are comfortable with the chaos Trump's win would produce, or either that they know all will be fine, and he will be defeated through some means. 

Instead, we are seeing the shortest of short-term bets.  Next year will be good.   There will be time to withdraw risk assets before the SHTF.+

I am a stubbornly optimistic person by nature, and with regard to most specific issues.  I always believe there is a way--just ask me.   However, I don't feel so good, even about 2024's domestic economic success forecast.  It is true that we consumers spent like crazy this Christmas, so that would be a boost.  Also, the Fed is done raising, that is clear.  In driving terms, that means they released the pressure of their foot off the brake, which they had been applying steadily. The foot is still there, resting softly on top of the brake pedal, as the regenerative braking (we have the best, modern economists!) kicks in, providing natural slowing, storing energy for a revival, if needed.

My pessimism--or maybe I should just describe it as caution--derives from a weak global economy.  So far, our economy has done well despite the unusual outbreak of war involving European nations**, but there is vulnerability in supply chains which will be exploited at some point.  I see a spotty pattern of growth, with industries like cars, oil, and financials suffering, but some of the big infrastructure and military companies thriving.  The tech stock monsters which powered 2023's market recovery are just about overpriced, as eager competitors will seek to knock away market share, sacrificing profitability.

But What About That Upside? 

There is so much potential for us if we fail to screw it up.  World peace, an end to extreme poverty and inequality, enormous improvements in our quality and duration of life, exploration of the micro- and macro-universes in ways we can barely imagine.  Our pace of progress in human capability has been enormous over the last 300 years and seems in many ways only to be accelerating.

The conversion to renewable energy is moving apace.  I don't expect things like wind, hydrothermal, or the current generation of solar energy to be long-term solutions, but we won't have to go back to oil, even if its cost is reduced further through technological advancement.  Practical fusion is now less than 50 years away for the first time, and other opportunities will present themselves.  Energy is all around us to be harvested.

Somehow, we still seem to be able to produce enough food to feed 8 billion people, even if many live in food insecurity. This may turn out to be the Golden Age of Global Food, but developing more diverse and healthy sources of food locally will be more valuable to society, especially in dealing with the damage to ecosystems that will result from climate change continuing.  

In the long run, I believe there will be a significant change in our procreation and birthing.  It may become necessary, if bad chemicals in our environment endanger successful random mating of sperm and egg.  Then there is the trauma of birthing--there, I said it.  The rise of Caesarans , even if not needed for medical reasons, and the choice of so many young people to delay or forego having children, are clues that change is coming.  I'm not expert enough to predict its form, but it will be somewhere between today's forceps and Huxley's baby factories.  As for mating rituals, they are in constant evolution, but always tend toward the dysfunctional.  That actually might be something that will improve with AI's development.  

The big improvement that will be needed is more within our minds, though.  The animal brain portion we have is not designed to handle well modern stresses and frustrations.  I don't see those distractions decreasing, though; the difference must come from how we deal with them.  In this regard, the progressing legalization of cannabis (it's not just "weed", or "dope" anymore) is a positive sign of our developing capability to adapt our minds.  That underground smoldering burst into our society in the now-mythical Sixties, but it was too much, too soon.  That's not true anymore; many more of us now realize the needs most or all have to take actions specifically to curate their mental health, because we are feeling it ourselves--one perversely positive result of the Covid epidemic 

It starts this year, in 2024, with a definitive defeat of defeatism. Trumpism is a loser, that is clear. The challenge is to prove one's system and way of life better than the authoritarians'; going his way gives up the game. 

Footnotes

#UK PM, May, 1937-May, 1940.  I feel for his suffering descendants.  (Not Wilt? I hear he has many of them.)

*State of the Art.  Should be reduced to a FLA, if it isn't already.  (TLA's are so 2010's!)

+ Shit Hits The Fan.  Useful for any general global apocalypse, without hitting the censors, for now.

**Or extended Europe, if you will (in the FIFA view).