The Only Oscars Review You Could Possibly Need

With notes on the history of “A Star Is Born” below.

My sources:  Stoner Household polling preferences, first and second (SH#1, SH#2)+, Vanity Fair prediction (VF), My somewhat cynical view of the favorite (JS).   See also my 2018 fall preview, my “Vice” review. Any movie which I have not seen will be marked with an asterisk in its first mention. (*) I have in bold your handicapper’s “Best Bet”, which is not necessarily the betting favorite, but looks like best value for your money.

Listed in reverse order of the awards.  If you want to follow along, go to the end of this section and then scroll up, slowly.

Best Picture - Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” has ten nominations, which makes it the betting favorite for this one.  All are expecting it to win, but I have my doubts. It was not favored in the Stoner household (“Black Panther” and “Vice” led in our polling).  It would break a lot of ground for this conservative institution, being a movie that was released initially only on Netflix (ew) It would also be the first-ever foreign language movie to win Best Picture.  There are eight nominees for this one category, which allows votes to be split more than others. “Roma” will definitely win other categories, allowing voters to look elsewhere if they don’t want to concentrate awards too much.  I expect awards to be split among many movies this year, and capping off the night with an upset has been happening more recently. If so, “Green Book”, “The Favourite”, and “Black Panther” would be contenders.   Winner: Green Book. 

Best Actress -  There was some early sentiment for Olivia Colman, who plays a batty, ill Queen Anne in “The Favourite” (SH#2)  and Lady Gaga’s performance in “A Star Is Born” (SH#1) is notable, but the expectation (VF, JS) is that Glenn Close will win for a role in which she played the hidden talent behind her husband’s award-winning writing (‘The Wife”*).  For her, it would be “finally” winning; for voters, do they want this veteran to win?  Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite.

Best Actor  - In my initial preview, I thought it would be between the two guys who put on big weight for their roles (Viggo Mortensen (SH#2) in “Green Book”, Christian Bale in “Vice”), over the guy who put on extra teeth (Rami Malek (SH#1) in “Bohemian Rhapsody”).   I still think those are the main candidates but Malek is drawing more support now.  Winner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody. 

Director - This is the most legitimate and logical category for Cuaron to win (“Roma”).  This is a real auteur with his most personal vision, based on his childhood experiences with his mother and the family’s housekeeper in Mexico City (not Rome, Italy).  The other top candidates would be for Spike Lee (SH#1), who I think will be honored elsewhere, or Adam McKay, for “Vice” (SH#2). Yorgos Lanthanos, “The Favourite”, would be a longshot choice that would annoy many, including me.  Winner:  Cuaron, Roma. 

Adapted Screenplay - I think this will be the one Spike will win (for “BlacKKKlansman”, SH#1); he is in the writing credits with some others.  That will give him the chance to give a (short) speech, the best outcome for all.  “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “A Star Is Born” are more classic source material that could provide an upset.   Winner:  BlacKKklansman. 

Original Screenplay -  This is one of the most wide-open categories.  “Vice” (SH#2) and “Green Book” (SH#1) both had a lot of clever dialogue, though the stories are somewhat familiar.  “The Favourite” (VF) is off-the-wall, surreal history. “Roma” is nominated, overcoming the fact that the original script is not in English (so some may be “lost in translation’ for many viewers).  The longshot bet is “First Reformed”*, a religious story by well-known writer Paul Schrader.  Winner:  Green Book.

Original Song - “Shallow” (SH#1), Lady Gaga’s character’s top song from “A Star Is Born”, seems like a sure winner.  I was shocked that they seem to have decided not to invite Lin-Manuel Miranda to perform his rap from “Mary Poppins Returns” (SH#2).  Oscar producers really didn’t like that movie.  Winner: A Star Is Born. 

Original Score - The usual award in this category goes to a recognized Hollywood music director who produces a big sound to go with the visuals--this would argue for Alexandre Desplat for “Isle of Dogs” (JS); he’s won before.  There are more interesting choices this year, though, including jazz musician Terrence Blanchard’s score for “BlacKKKlansman”, and the African-oriented score for “Black Panther” (SH#1).  Yet another: Vanity Fair picked the score for “If Beale Street Could Talk”, good electronic ambience. Winner: Black Panther. 

Cinematography -  Another Cuaron controversy.  Unusually, he was the Director of Photography for “Roma” (VF, JS) when ace cinematographer “Chivo” Lubezki (his buddy) had to pull out.  He’s still favored, but I’m thinking instead it will be “The Favourite” (SH#1, JS), its cinematography being an unquestioned highlight of viewing the film.   Winner:  Roma. 

Live Action Short, Documentary Short-- I saw none of them, have no clue.  If you want a non-random pick, Vanity Fair went with “Marguerite”* and “Period. End of Sentence”*.  The latter is clearly a good title.   Winner: Period. End of Sentence. 

Film Editing -  This is a core skill area for making good films; there are no accidents among the nominees here.  Two where the film editing is especially noticeable: “Vice” (SH#2, VF) had so many cuts forward and backward in time to be handled skillfully, and “Bohemian Rhapsody” (SH#1)  had to splice together some live-looking performances.  Winner:  Bohemian Rhapsody. 

Visual Effects - Vanity Fair liked the effects in “Avengers: The Infinity War”* (VF), which was also #2 in box office for the year, and that does count for something these days.  The only nominee I saw was the Neil Armstrong movie, “First Man” (SH#1), and it definitely was strong in this area.  There was a Star Wars movie, but it was the critically-panned generic “Solo: A Star Wars Movie” *(JS), and a Spielberg sci-fi (“Ready Player One”*), so I guess you could say it was a strong field.  Winner:  First Man. 

Production Design - This is about the quality and suitability of the physical environment (“the set”)--in terms of the award, the more elaborate, the better.  The clear choices among the nominees are “Mary Poppins Returns” (SH#2) and “Black Panther” (SH#1, VF, JS).  Bet “Roma” (JS) if you believe in the sweep.   Winner: Black Panther. 

Animated Feature - Competitive this year.  “Isle of Dogs” (SH#1) would be the critics’ favorite; “Spiderman: Toward the Spider-verse”* (VF, JS) is the trendy pick.  I heard some good things about “Incredibles 2”*.   Winner:  Spiderman. 

Animated Short - I only heard anything about one nominee, “Bao”*  (means pouch, or dumpling).  Good luck with any of the others.  Winner: Bao. 

Foreign Language Movie - A very strong field of nominees, but there’s only one pick: “Roma”.  I read a counter-argument for “Cold War”*, which is also one of the Best Picture nominees, out of a spread-the-wealth philosophy, but I think that’s more likely to show up in the Best Picture voting.   I’m going to see “Capernaum”* tomorrow night--I’m very excited about this film done by a Lebanese about a stateless Syrian refugee youth there who sues his parents for the offense of giving birth to him.  (fiction, but filmed with local homeless youth).  Winner:  Roma. 

Actress (Supporting Role) - I want Amy Adams (SH#1) to win for her role as Lynne Cheney in “Vice”; she so deserves an Oscar.  Instead, it seems destined to go to Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk (VF, JS), which was a worthy, emotionally powerful, role, and there’s some support for the character playing Cuaron’s mother in “Roma” (again, if you believe in the sweep theory).  

Winner:  Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Sound Mixing, Sound Editing - Two different things:  mixing is about putting the sounds together, editing is about putting in sounds.  Not what you might have thought. Anyway, the first would likely be between “A Star Is Born” (SH#2) and “Bohemian Rhapsody” (SH#1, VF), though “Roma” (JS) is also there.   The editing award tends toward war and horror movie sound effects: “Quiet Place”* is about the absence of sound; “First Man” is real loud.   Winners:  Bohemian Rhapsody, Bohemian Rhapsody

Documentary Feature - Appears to be a strong category.  “RBG” (SH#1, JS) should be popular, as the life-story of the sainted Ruth Bader Ginsburg; I wished I’d seen “Free Solo”*, which is about the first person to climb El Capitan, in Yosemite National Park, in a single session, without any ropes or aids.  My wife likes the brave idea in “Of Fathers and Sons” (SH#2), a reporter embedded with ISIS, while Vanity Fair picked “Minding the Gap” (VF), a story of hardscrabble skateboarders in Rockville, Illinois.  Winner: Free Solo.  

Costume Design, Makeup - On Costume Design, a couple of likely nominees are “Mary, Queen of Scots”* and “The Favourite” (SH#2), being movies featuring folks dressed in centuries-old fancy stuff.   But the likely winner this year is “Black Panther” (SH#1, VF), with a famed longtime costume director Ruth Carter expected to win her deserved Oscar.  It will be important for her to win this early to set a good tone in terms of a diverse set of award-winners, which the Academy is definitely seeking.  On Makeup, there are only three nominees and “Vice” is the overwhelming favorite, due to the great job on Christian Bale’s prosthetics making him into Dick Cheney.  Winners:  Black Panther, Vice.

Actor (Supporting Role) - A very interesting category to start off the night, with five strong candidates. Stoner Household’s clear pick was Adam Driver, Spike Lee’s inspired choice to play the Jewish police guy who crashes the KKK on behalf of his black colleague who provided the “wypipo voice” (“BlacKKKlansman”).  If you don’t get what I’m saying, watch the movie. Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”, VF, SH#2) was excellent as the cultured concert pianist touring the Jim Crow South in 1960, but he won--very recently. Personally, I thought both Sam Rockwell as Dubya (“Vice”, SH#2) and Sam Elliott, the man of a Thousand Voice-Overs, in “A Star Is Born” were great.  There is a dark-horse pick, though, veteran Richard E. Grant in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”* (JS), the movie starring comedian Melissa McCarthy, in a serious role, as an author turned forger (she’s nominated for Best Actress, should’ve mentioned that before).  Winner:  Mahershala Ali, Green Book. 

I will update. Best of luck, if you’re in a betting pool!

I chose to feature Vanity Fair's picks because a) it was written very late, so not trying to influence that limited voting pool that matters (the Academy, a few thousand people); b) they're very close to the event and the Oscars gossip.

+ N=2.  Basically,  the considered opinions of my wife Jenifer and me.  Our kids/parents don’t go to the cinemas anymore.

Notes on the history of "A Star Is Born"

I finally got to see the Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga remake this past weekend.  It was my own fault--didn't see the first run in the theaters, then it disappeared from my sight/reach.  It was released in Pay Per View and DVD this past week.

This is the fourth feature-length version of the film.  A quote from Sam Elliott's character, in this year's model:  "It's the same story, over and over again."  He was talking about the variations that can be made of those twelve tones in the chromatic scale, but it applies to this--no doubt, planned by Cooper, who helmed every aspect of this one and heroically performed, too.

I did some penance research through imdb.com, one of the best sites on the Internet and the one-stop place to research movies there.  imdb.com is branching out, with the times, with ever more TV content, if you need that, too.

The film is always an older man, a veteran performer, who discovers a younger woman. Her rise to stardom coincides with his definitive fall from grace.  Someday they may change that ancient formula; the most politically correct change would be to have a younger man raise up an older woman, if you can imagine that!

Here are some notes, not edited too much.

1937--  Janet Gaynor, Frederic March.  Director William Wellman.    Won Oscar for best original story, by Wellman and Robert Carson. Also, a special honorary award for W. Howard Greene for color photography.  Nominated for six more (best picture, director, actor, actress, assistant director (!), and 'best writing, screenplay' (Alan Campbell, Robert Carson, Dorothy Parker--alphabetical order?)
imdb.com viewers Rated it 7.6  Mode, median 8;  16% @ 10, 1.1% at 1.

Additional:  Music from Franz Liszt.
A husband and wife, he is the successful one, but alcoholic; she is a rising star.  He dies at the end, by drowning (suicide?)  The dialogue is acerbic; it's a savage movie about movies.   Climax:  she says loudly, in public, "This is Mrs. Norman Maine"--the crowd goes wild.
Referenced in "Son of the Beach: A Star is Boned" (2000).  Gay surfer movie, I presume.

1954 Judy Garland, James Mason.   Director: George Cukor.  Writer: Moss Hart (with credits to 1937 writers).  Actor takes on younger singer/actress.  Big budget Technicolor.
Rated 7.7 (I gave it an 8--very good)  Mode,median 8.  21.7% at 10; 1.1% at 1.
Six Oscar nominations, won zero--Garland, Mason, Music score, music song "The Man that Got Away", art direction, costume design.  Judy Garland was crushed she didn't win (Grace Kelly "The Country Girl", very close vote).
Additional: Cukor was nominated for Best Director 5 times, won for My Fair Lady 1964  Also won Emmy for Direction of Love Among the Ruins (Hepburn, Olivier), TV movie--1975. (age 76)  only time Hepburn and Olivier worked together, though lifelong friends.  Cukor directed Hepburn 9 times.

There is a long history of people turning down one role or the other. Anecdote from imdb:

George Cukor offered Marlon Brando the role of Norman Maine on the set of Julius Caesar(1953). "Why would you come to me?" asked Brando. "I'm in the prime of my life... If you're looking around for some actor to play an alcoholic has-been, he's sitting right over there"- pointing at his costar James Mason, who got the part.

1976  Barbra Streisand, Kris Kristofferson.    Story is actually the closest to the current version (singer/songwriter with drug/alcohol problems on the way down finds an amateur singing in a bar and works to make her famous).   Barbra got an Oscar for singing her theme song ("Evergreen"); that may be the result for this one, too
Lowest-rated of them all.  Mean rating 6.4, median 7; mode 6.  16.4% at 10, 4.2% at 1.

2018  Lady Gaga (Stefani Germanotta), Bradley Cooper.  Directed by Bradley Cooper.  Norman Maine's name changed to Jackson Maine.

Other references in the search "A Star Is Born" on imdb.com: 

2010 - Documentary, from Hungary, with The Decemberists (American indie rock band!)
zvezda je rodena  Language: Serbian   Rated 4.7 (13 raters-- median 4, mode 1 and 7 !)  Director Vanja Kovacevic.  Stars Nemanja Acimovic, Nikola Bercek.

1973 - Described on imdb.com as "The Spanish version of the 1973 classic"; wrong in several ways. Director Armando de Guzman.  Stars Jeanne Young.  Philippines, in Tagalog.

1960 (translated Star tansaeng) --Korean 

A Pornstar is Born (2011--Video)

A Star is Bored  (1956--Short)  Daffy Duck, Bugs Bunny.  Daffy subs in for Bugs' dangerous scenes.

A Star is Born World Premiere - a live telecast from 1954 (!)  rated 5.8  (115 raters)
Median 7 Mode 8, 34% 10 (18) or 1(16)