My main factual resource for this piece is the recently-announced set of Golden Globes movie nominations. The Globes (GG, below) are a good, independently-drawn small-sample (without replacement), providing a sense of future Oscar voters' likely views. It's a good estimate, though early in the award season--later-released films will rise for Oscar consideration.
The Golden Globes have the weird feature of having two sets of awards for movies (for best picture and lead actor and actress), one for Drama and one for Comedy or Musical, and they have a very weird approach to assigning films to the categories. Still, if one puts together the nominees for best picture for the two categories, the result is 10 names, which is how many the Oscars are now possibly including in its nominations.
The (Preliminary) Nominees
Here they are, with the GG category, release date, and a note for each, intended primarily for those who have not heard of these names.
A Star is Born (D) (already--Oct. 5 ) - I would've put this under comedy/musical. I have to admit I haven't seen it, though. It could yet be one of my two sequels, but I'd have to hurry. More likely to see it on HBO or something, later. I do respect the effort, though; I was not at all surprised to read that Lady Gaga gave a great performance. She was born to act...and play music. (#redo category)
Black Panther (D) (Feb. 16) I think all superhero movies should be under comedy/musical--it's not really ever serious. (#redo) That being said, very well made, a blockbuster that will also get award respect. it could still win for something like screenplay or effects, though the awards don't often go to movies released this early in the year.
BlackKKKlansman (D) (Aug. 10) I'd say the best Spike Lee joint since the '90's. A fantastic concocted story that's true, of a black who was admitted as a KKK member (with a white colleague for the face-to-mask meetings). Casting Adam Driver was extremely smart.
Bohemian Rhapsody (D, but totally should be in musical #redo ) - (Nov. 2 ). The story of Freddy Mercury, lead singer of Queen, and his meteoric life and death. A story very well told. Lead role is Rami Halek (Mr. Robot on TV) as Mercury, an award-worthy performance. The musical recapitulations are fantastic; I don't know but I think they must have been lip-synched.
If Beale Street Could Talk (D) -- (Dec. 25-limited release) - Harlem story, there better be some good music. I want to say a dark-horse candidate for top awards, but I don't want that to be viewed as a disingenuous slur. What I mean is, the pedigree (director from Moonlight, story from James Baldwin, top stars) is impeccable, but the box office and critical appeal are unproven at this point.*
Crazy Rich Asians (C or M) (Aug. 15) - My wife wouldn't let me take her to see it. We used to live in Singapore, so we know the milieu. I presume it was light, entertaining, good box office (especially abroad--this one's GG nomination could be a case of sample bias vs. the AMPAS) .
The Favourite (C or M) (Nov. 23) --the classification of this one seems totally absurd at first glance. You would think: Costume drama-- Queen Anne of England, I think, with Emma Wood and Rachel Weisz; good on the eyes. Actually, it's probably something completely different--satire, with esoteric comedy appeal, if any, by the writer/director Y. Lanthimos (The Lobster). If you saw that, you know what I mean.
Green Book (C or M- #redo, though there's great music) (Nov. 16). Driving Miss Daisy with a twist--the chauffeur is white, the passenger black. Based on the true story of jazz pianist Don Shirley's visit to the segregated South in the '60's, and the 'goombah' bouncer who was his driver. Both Viggo Mortensen (lead actor, for the GG) and Mahershala Ali (supporting, as Shirley) will get serious consideration for awards. Loved the American Italian dialogue, Ali's keyboard-acting artistry.
Mary Poppins Returns (C or M) - (Dec. 25 )- Emily Blunt, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and others. Modern depression, and its cure. A true musical.
Vice (C or M) ( Dec. 15 ) - #redo. This is the one with the best buzz, as lead actors Christian Bale and Amy Adams re-create the magic from American Hustle, with Dick Cheney's career being the current subject.
(the listing is alphabetical, by GG category)
Not Nominated by the Hollywood Foreign Press
(For Whatever Reason)
(with theoretical release dates--have you seen them? I have not nor seen that they are out)Boy Erased (Nov. 8) - Nicole Kidman and Lucas Hedges ('Young Actor of the Year') - Gay Conversion drama;
At Eternity's Gate (Nov 15 -*) Willem Dafeoe is Vincent Van Gogh. artistic appeal, for sure;
Roma (Nov. 21*) - The one I am most eager to see, the Amarcord of Alejandro Cuaron. Cuaron's right at the top now; I prefer him slightly over his buddy Inarritu;
Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Nov. 9*) - the Coen Brothers' (latest) Western, in six parts. If you can, translate O Brother, Where Art Thou to the Old West. Works for me.
Finally, Vox Lux (Dec. 7) -Natalia Portman plays a Gaga-like performer. Lady Gaga will be at the Oscars ceremony, will Portman?
Early Oscar Talk
(skip if it annoys you):
You might think that "Vice" will win Best Picture, but I think it will be 'Mary Poppins Returns'. If it clicks, it will still be showing next summer. 'Roma' will be relegated to foreign language film.
Best Actor would seem between two guys who put on weight for their roles--Mortensen (a/k/a Aragorn) and Bale. If Rami gets nominated, that would be something to note.
Actress will be very interesting and telling. I think Gaga will be nominated but not win, but it is a possibility. Emily Blunt will be in there. And there's others: I just love Amy Adams. Is this the year? Rosamund Pike for "A Private War" (the story of Marie Colvin) has a shot.
Director is always interesting. I think Bradley Cooper will snag a nom. Spike Lee might. Cuaron. Probably no women.
*I hate this release strategy (the Ol' Harvey Weinstein), though it is frequently chosen for critical faves with uncertain prospects.
+The history of movie soundtracks is a favorite subject.
#redo - the category shown is what GG did; I would disagree.
(Did I forget to mention sex? Another publick goode.) /s
#redo - the category shown is what GG did; I would disagree.
(Did I forget to mention sex? Another publick goode.) /s
Posts
2 comments:
"Roma" is on Netflix; so is "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs". I will note whether The Academy recognizes such films at all, with reluctance, generously, or just disqualifies them completely. If I were they, I'd disqualify them, as harmful to the industry.
Saw "Scruggs" last night. (Where was Flatt?) It had a pretense of being six short stories from an old volume of Old West stories (unclear if this exists). Big cast with several familiar names. My wife thought it was boring. For me, occasionally funny, but too much gunplay (not entertaining for me). Favorite role was Tom Waits as an old prospector. Only way i would see it as an award contender would be something about use of scenery (New Mexico/Colorado -- cinematography?)
Nice work! Thank you for helping me organise my new years viewing! X
Post a Comment