We have to yield to consistent polling results and move VA and CO from our toss-up status to likely Obama states. This makes the projected result 291-200 Obama, with OH and FL (47 Electoral Votes) as toss-ups.
The more detailed assessment would be: Solid McCain 163, Leaning McCain 37 (NC, MO, and IN); Solid Obama 259, Leaning Obama 32 (NV, VA, CO, and, pending more polling results, NM, which I have been somewhat surprised Obama hasn't put away already).
Of the leaning McCain states, NC may be more of a toss-up than the others, but I am unconvinced.
Those who are showing Obama with 350 or more electoral votes are giving too much value to polling results that don't even show a margin greater than the quoted error of their samples.
There is still the question of polling measurement error, whether due to false answers from polled individuals, improper weighting, or voter suppression/turnout estimation errors. This is pretty much all that McPalin can rely on, as they aren't going to provide the winning surprise, either in October or November.
The popular vote estimate seems to be converging between 51-47 Obama and 52-46. Roughly, Obama and McCain are winning 90% of their party supporters (about 40-33 Democrat) and splitting the 27% of those thoroughly unafilliated with either major party about evenly (2% going to 3rd party candidates).
This compares favorably with the 51-48 result for Bush over Kerry in 2004, and the Electoral Vote margin should also be expected to be a little wider than the 286-252 margin Bush got.
This will be my final forecast before Election Day. I may adjust it that day if there's anything new.
Monday, October 27, 2008
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New Mexico's lead for Obama appears from final polls to be a safe one of 10 points or so. Take it out of the leaning Dem and put it in the safe column.
Pennsylvania and Ohio have been the targets of all-out McCampaign offensives (and yes, they have been offensive). I'll go so far as to put PA in the leaning Dem column. As for Ohio, it's no more or less than usual--it's still a toss-up, not least because it's unclear how the Election Day issues of new registrants, provisional ballots, suppression attempts, etc. will play out.
So, I stick with 291-200, with 47 toss-ups. If forced not to wimp out, one would say one coin toss will go to Obama and one to McCain. Put Florida in Obama's column and we would end up 318-220.
I'll stick with my 51-47 prediction on the popular vote, with total votes around 135,000,000.
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