NM: Lens Image of the National Election

Lens image, as different from a mirror image (reversed left-to-right). This one instead is upside down.

In the New Mexico Senate race (opened up by Pete Domenici's retirement for health reasons), we have a situation in which we have had a presumptive Democratic nominee for months (Tom Udall), while the two leading Republicans (Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce) battle fiercely on roughly even terms. Although there is more difference in the policy views of Wilson and Pearce than between Clinton and Obama (more comparable to the differences between McCain and Dubya), the race is similar in the sense of powerful, distinct blocs within the party going up against each other. At some times, furiously.


If we are looking for the impact of the prolonged Clinton-Obama primary duel on the general election race, we can see the reverse writ small in New Mexico, the better to identify exactly how large the effect (if any).

New Mexico has tons of intrinsic reasons to be of particular interest in the Obama-McCain match-up.

They start with the indisputable fact that it has been the closest of all the swing states in the last two elections (and was the closest in the primaries this year, too--at least in the Demo races, I'll have to check re: McCain's big winner-take-all in MO). As usual, the state looks to be competitive in the Presidential race. That's less unusual this year, when there seems to be a lot more swing in play, turnout being another dimension of surpassing interest this particular year. The Democrats should have the advantage, but are far from a lock.

Second, if one's looking at the Hispanic vote as one of the key dynamic areas of the Obama-McCain race demographics, look no further: NM has the highest percentage of the 50 states.
I believe the Hispanic vote this year ended up a little closer between Clinton-Obama (here, on UNP-Day) than most of the reported Hispanic vote percentages in primary states, but I don't think that's the real issue in the general election question. Rather, it's that McCain's bravado appeals to many Hispanic voters, and not incidentally, that McCain's from neighboring AZ.


Third, due in no small part to the Republican battle, this has become one of the best chances the Democrats have to pick up a seat. The general election picture is far from settled--the latest poll data I saw had Pearce up over Wilson, 49-46, so it's too early to handicap that race accurately (as, I would argue, is the case for Obama-McCain).

On the other hand, the ads these have been buying have generally hardened opposition to both of them, and Udall has moved from something like a 50-50 race to a 60-40 lead over either. Things are looking really good for him to pick up a Senate seat here, and that is worth big-time national money.

That should be enough, but the peculiar dynamics of the NM Senate race have driven all three of its Representatives to give up their seats and go for it. 100% of the state's House races have no incumbent!

This has provided a major employment opportunity in the state, both for candidates and for low-paid political operatives. Why not?

In our Congressional district, #3, there are 10 candidates running--6 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and 2 Independents. I think the Albuquerque district (Heather Wilson's old one--#1) has a similar number going. In the current district we have up north, it's all about winning the Democratic nomination. Ben Ray Lujan is the clear favorite, with Don Wiviott the leading challenger. I like best what I've seen from Benny Shendo, but both Lujan and Wiviott have respectable records and should cream any Republican.

The key district, once again, will be Wilson's, and should be a clear opportunity for the Democrats to pick up the seat this time.

From a Peculiar Angle of Refraction

As with Clinton-Obama, and the 2008 election more generally, there is a major 2012 election issue out here in New Mexico not being discussed. If I read the cards correctly, NM is due to pick up a fourth seat after the 2010 census (unless Republican "get the vote outta here!" tactics are used in tabulating resident citizens). That should take effect in the 2012 election, and the form that expansion will take (to be determined by a Democratic-led legislature) is certainly not clear. My guess is that a natural expansion would be to create a new district from parts of the two Northern ones. I'd suggest the idea of one composed of Albuquerque Northern suburbs (the fastest growing area, I'd say) and Santa Fe county (with the sparsely populated land between). This one would be competitive but lean Democratic.

The rump of the district formerly dominated by Santa Fe (and represented by Udall) would be created: one with a more rural, minority composition: with a very high Hispanic population, very significant Native American population, and no large city. It would initially be Lujan's district, one could foresee. Certainly Democratic.

The Albuquerque district would remain largely that, but with some of the richer areas removed. It would be a prime candidate for someone like Mayor Chavez. If all this is true, New Mexico would go from 1-2 to 3-1 by 2012, with its 6 electoral votes ever more firmly in the Democratic camp. Part of a general national swing toward the party now clearly in the majority, one can only pray.

Nationally, the 2012 issue is out there, but not yet under consideration (for example: whither Hillary, after she loses?). It will start getting the media's attention no later than mid-2009. If McCain won I would have to give him no better than a 50-50 chance to make it (alive) through a hypothetical re-election campaign, and the Obama-relives-Carter fear is definitely out there among some.

I have already seen a lot of polling interest in us from some blogs (including a direct appeal from the Committee for a Democratic Majority). This is, without doubt, primarily a marketing technique, but I think it's the forerunner of a whole lot of attention to the state. I've encouraged my wife to speak her mind--that's good politics, from every point of view. As for me, I aspire to be the Kevin Costner character in "Swing State" (check title).

Techy comment on NM's 5 electoral votes: I think you can put McCain down for 35-45% of the 40% Hispanic voters in the state, which, after you factor in the African-American vote, puts McCain at 33-43% of the 42% Hispanic or African-American voters. The Native American vote, now, that's another, important story, some 8-10% of voters, I expect. Put McCain down for a similar 33-43% of them and you've got McCain getting only 17-22% of his total from the non-white half. This would mean he'd need 58-66% of the white vote; I'd call that unlikely. All of this relies on a really strong turnout effort from the Obama campaign--which I totally expect, and that is the whole point of this post.

NM poll at http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/nmsen_r/