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Saturday, March 08, 2008

It's Called a "Coalition"

I must've been more down than I seemed, in order to have suggested, The Morning After Ohio and Texas (a/k/a The Unofficial National Primary, Democratic side, part 2A), that Obama might end up giving up the top spot despite leading in delegates. The key is that in the title I accepted the less-than-efficient "Obamamania" instead of my preferred "Obamania".

I do think there's an answer to Why would he ever do it? It would set the Democrats up for a big win, he would get executive experience (should insist upon it), and get the Clintons out of the way once and for all. I suspect the 2009-2013 term is going to be a bummer for whoever gets it--Clinton, McCain, or Obama. There's a real question whether either candidate can win a fight to the finish without being irreparably damaged, and this would certainly avoid that. It would certainly be a break from the "winner take all" rules which prevailed in much of pre-Obama America.

Still, there are huge issues. Could he possibly preserve his Movement, if he yielded to Hillary? Could he trust her not to run again? What about "the urgency of now"?

Probably this is an option that should be reserved for the worst case scenario: the one that has Hillary improbably closing the gap through a 60-40 type win in Pennsylvania, a reversal of some kind on Florida delegates (which would cost Obama 20-30 delegates) and some sort of unfavorable outcome in Michigan, and erosion of his position on superdelegates.

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