Slow-Motion Train-Wreck: Act IV

Petraeus will open the final act of the drama in Scene 1 (sounds very Shakespearean, if not Sophoclean). The principal dramatic tension is whether he and Ambassador Crocker will be allowed to mouth their own words, someone else's or whether their words will be "interpreted" by loyal Bushite officials. Regardless of the dramatis personae, the import of the message will be the same and the outcome will, as well.

The Bushite Scourge in Iraq has approximately 8 more months to run (I'd set the over-under bet on the first withdrawals without replacement--sort of like my scalp follicle policy--to begin approximately February 29). By that date, the probable or certain Republican nominee's identity should be known (as it certainly is not today). That White Northern European Male, after evaluating the political challenge posed by his likely or certain November opponent(s), can signal the national party leadership of his political needs, which will most likely be to go the "John Warner" route, i.e., begin token withdrawals now.

Natural rotation out with lesser replacement, along with a new focus on avoiding casualties (a la Vietnam in election years) will bring the level down to 75-80k American forces by the election, which should leave all options open for the 2009-inaugurated President, whatever his/her party affiliation and previous stance on the war.

I continue to find the "debate" a waste of time and effort, even politically (at the strategic level). Few points will be gained for either party in November, 2008 by the outcome that is clearly indicated.