Jack of Hearts, Ace of Spades

Alberto Gonzales bites the dust in typical ignominious Bushite fashion. The honorary family member and never-quite-up-to Attorney General can go back to legal stenography for the Dubya Presidential library. He was scapegoated quite effectively by the legal community when it was clear that he couldn't "not remember" convincingly.

Not so the top-ranked card in the deck, domestic adviser Karl Rove. His plan to build a national Republican dominance is in shambles. He showed himself tactically brilliant but strategically flawed. Since every decision (especially those relating to GWOT) in this White House is politically motivated, if not politically determined, it is hard to pick any Bushite fiasco for which he should not bear personal responsibility.

Still, it is not over, and Rove's move to the outside reflects that. Republicans' re-capturing either house of Congress would seem to be out of the question in 2008, barring a complete Democratic swoon (not out of the question in any election year). The numbers of seats at risk in the Senate put the Republicans in a position to lose 3-5 seats even if they run a good campaign with a good Presidential nominee (both seem unlikely at this point). Larry Craig's is just the latest seemingly-safe Republican-held seat to come into play.

Despite an uninterrupted series of bad news for the party (even the successes they might claim on the ground in Iraq are double-edged, politically), there's still a real chance that the Presidential race could fall their way. About a 41% chance, if one believes the political futures market (I'd say that's about one-fourth too high).

Of the original Bushite deck, the only active face cards are Cheney (Ace of Clubs), Mitch McConnell (Jack of Diamonds), and Dubya (Ace of Hearts). Not enough for an opening bid.