Baseball Preseason Predictions 2007

The following was posted on April 2, 2007. I'm posting it now to go on record with my preseason predictions, even though--with the Wall St. Journal prediction categories--many of the subjects of prediction were not my choice. The idea--partly inspired by Nicholas Nassim Taleb's Black Swan (more on this later)--is to make myself accountable for the quality of my forecasting.


I'm about two hours late for the actual beginning of Opening Day As It Should Be (first pitch of the Reds' game)--and for that, I'm truly sorry. I've paid no attention to any result except last night's regular season prelim, which has reminded me to find a way not to pick the Cards for anything.

We'll give the selected scenario or logic around the answers to question 1 (division winners) and breeze through the rest. I'm still utilizing my "3rd starter/CF" quality assessment as a quick shortcut, but I'm relying on it only for the top of the divisions. I learned last year that comparing 3rd starters for the bad teams is an exercise in hilarity only, not critical analysis of baseball teams. I'm also not using the depth charts so slavishly, considering short-term injuries and looking for the 3rd beststarter. The CF quality is more a tiebreaker when there are two decent #3's in a division (rare enough).

AL East--Yanks will fall way behind Botox, BJ's early; Cashman will do the obvious when faced with a "him, or me?" decision and let Torre go around June 1. Coincidentally, the Yanks will start to hit enough when Don Baylor (or somesuch) comes in to manage and Stonebrenner signs Clemens (2nd half year #2 starter). They catch the BJ's near the end and narrowly edge the Indians and Chisox forthe WC. Mussina's #3 in the second half, after Clemens' Wang, and ahead of The Rest. Bosox kick everyone's butt with DMat or Beckett. BJ'sChacin is a better pitcher than most Yanks, in theory only.

AL Central--the most important division. I'll take Robertson (Det.) over Garland (Chi), Westbrook (Cle) and Boof Bonser/Matt Garza (Min).

AL West--Angels (ESantana) over Tex (McCarthy).

NL East--Gotta go with Phils (Freddy Garcia or Cole Hamels) over Mets (have no #3 pitcher).
NL Mediocre--A tough call. My choice would be the Brewers (Capuano) over Cardinals (Anthony Reyes) and the Cubs (appropriately, JasonMarquee). Bill Hall is now at CF for the Crew, clinching it over JimEdmonds. The Cardinals' resurgence started when they traded for Edmonds and will end with his fadeout this year or next.
NL West--Padres (Chris Young, or even better, Greg Maddux) over Dogs (D.Lowe--not a fan) and Giants (Matt Morris, past his day).

Answers to WSJ questions (see below):
1. Boston, Detroit, LA Angels, Phils, Brewers, Padres.
2. Yanks, Mets.
3. Tigers, Mets.
4. Tigers
5. Tigers
6. Devil Rays
7. Johan Santana, Dontrelle Willis (one year I will get him right on this).
8. David Ortiz, Albert Pujols
9. Alex Gordon, Chris Young
10. Whoever's managing the DRays is certainly doomed. Joe Torrewill be #2.
11. Milton Bradley (could be both)
12. Schmidt, Daisuke, Maddux, Zito, Petttittte
13. Orioles, Royals, Nationals, Pirates, DRays
14. 32; I have no idea but let's say 760 (2X 380).
15. Cubs (18), narrowly over Royals, Indians.
16. Oakland (12).
17. ARod--2; Jeet--7. (one series)
18. Two percent down--bad as the pitching is overall, it might be improving slightly.
19. Devil Rays, Pirates (this one's too easy)
20. July 7.

Wall Street Journal Baseball Prediction Contest Questions
THE BASICS (point value in parentheses)
1. Which six teams will be division winners? (5 points each)
2. Which two teams will win the wild cards? (5 each)
3. Which two teams will go to the World Series? (15 each)4. Which team will win the World Series? (30)
5. Which team will have the best regular-season record? (10)
6. Which team will have the worst regular-season record? (10)
7. Who will win the AL and NL Cy Young awards? (10 each)
8. Who will win the AL and NL MVP awards? (10 each)
9. Who will win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards? (10 each)
THE NITTY-GRITTY(10 points each. All questions include regular-season games only.Asterisk denotes partial credit will be given.)
10. Which manager will be first to no longer be managing team(whether fired, retired, resigned or otherwise not managing) in 2007?
11. Who will be the highest-salaried player (based on 2007 salary)released or traded?
12. Starting pitchers Greg Maddux, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Andy Pettitte,Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito all signed big contracts with newteams. Rank them in order of regular-season wins, most to fewest, in2007.
13. Rank these teams in order of regular-season wins, most tofewest: Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals.
14. What will be the most runs scored in any one regular-season game in the majors this year, by the two teams combined? How many games decided by one run will there be in the regular season? *
15. Which team will have the most-improved record, measured inincrease in total victories?
16. Which team will suffer the biggest decline, measured in decrease in total victories?
17. How many postseason hits will Alex Rodriguez have? How about Derek Jeter? *
18. There were 9.72 runs scored per game in the 2006 regular season.By what percentage will that change in 2007? [Round to the nearestpercentage point and specify a direction, up or down] *
19. Name two teams that will have only one All-Star -- counting those who are on the active roster for the game and those who are chosen but skip it (5 for each team you get correct).
20. On what date will Barry Bonds hit career HR No. 756? *