Trump Out

 It is delicious to consider the ways Donald Trump might leave the 2024 race.  The idea I treasured was that the weight of multiple criminal trials, augmented by an endless stream of civil suits, would cause him to just pack it in.  The toll that breaks him could be psychological, physical, financial, economical, or just pure exhaustion from anger and anxiety.  While it does seem like this series of judicial setbacks and indictments is taking a toll on his psyche, it's not looking like that will drive him to quit. 

There is the possibility of severe illness, or death.  That would do the trick to get him out.  

There are other possibilities that could possibly deter him or even prevent him from completing his primary campaign and/or winning the nomination. He could be jailed, more likely for contempt of court or defying a gag order than for a sentence after conviction, as I don't think any case is likely to reach that stage, pre-November; however, he could even continue his campaign from behind bars--we should be certain he would make the most of it, performance-wise.  There is the thing about the 14th Amendment, which states people who participate in insurrection should be barred from Federal office.  OK, he did it, but who gets to decide that?  Without a conviction for sedition, I can't see the courts upholding it.  I don't think obstruction of a Federal proceeding will do it. 

He could be defeated in the Republican primaries.  It seems impossible now, but it's still early.  The most salient challenge to him yet within the party is the poll that shows that Nikki Haley does significantly better than he (or any other declared Republican candidate) against Biden.  It's not hard to understand:  she has a better chance of getting votes from some portion of those women who have had their rights reduced by Trumpist Supreme Court Justices.  But still, if it comes to a primary head-to-head against any of them, he will get the majority in most or all states.  As things stand. 

There could even be something he does that finally goes beyond what his supporters, generally, can tolerate.  Maybe trying to strangle Melania, or Tiffany?   It's hard to imagine his support falling so much that it would drive him to quit, unless it were through unlikely electoral defeat. 

I do feel the hammer blows of the trials will do damage, but they themselves are unlikely to drive him out.  If they do, or if by other means Trump is out, though, it could get very interesting. If something were to happen soon, say before Super Tuesday, there would be a scramble to get into the race from people like Chris Sununu of New Hampshire or Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, along with a ramping up of the funds raised by candidates like Haley or Tim Scott, who may suddenly have a chance.  Even Ron DeSantis, in this case!

I think it's far more likely, if we are presuming Trump out (and Biden remaining in) that this would be something happening much later, when Trump has a monster lead in delegates or has received the nomination. (I'm going by the deliberate pace of these trials, and that they may possibly wear on him physically as well.)   If that's the case, I can't see the Republican convention delegates, or the Republican National Committee members, who'd be called for a quick decision after the convention, doing any kind of an about-face with regard to the Trumpist populist nationalist theme.  So, that would point to a selection of the most Trumpy one around, Vivek Ramaswamy or Scott, or Kristi Noem (rumored to be Trump's favorite VP choice), maybe. 

This kind of sudden Trump departure may not derail the Republicans' chances, even if Trump's departure is egregious or shameful. There seem to be many who would have less qualms about voting against the Democrats if the Presidential candidate were someone they didn't have to feel guilty about supporting.  Similarly, if Trump bails early and the Republicans have time to consider their selection, that person may find their voice on issues like shrinking the Federal government and immigration in a way that will put the Biden campaign on the defensive. The successor is also likely to be considerably younger in that circumstance, which will also work against Biden's successful re-election. 

I think the same logic could apply to Congressional races--voters tend to despise Washington but like their Congressperson.  I don't think Trump's passing from the scene will hurt most Representatives from red districts, while the effect on swing districts would depend on the circumstances.  There could be sympathetic support for Trump's successor, and there could be a rally around that person stronger than the feigned love Republican office-holders offer for the Wherever Man. That would mean coattails.

I don't see a Trump departure giving any assist to third-party candidacies of the right.  Republicans would glom together very quickly.  The same may not be true of the left:  without Trump to unify Democrats, Biden's support may suffer and someone (RFKJR?)  could cleave off some support. 

So, this one's not all positive for Democratic chances by any means.  But I'll still take it, unlikely as it seems.