Both Out (B. & T.)

The American people have indicated clearly, albeit only through polling, that a majority would prefer to see the leading candidate of each major party out of the race. That would open up the 2024 contest to a new generation of leaders and possibly some new ways of thinking, which is admittedly quite attractive. The question is how that could ever come about. 

Almost certainly it would have to start with former President Trump leaving the race, though that could be for a variety of reasons.  In the other direction, I don't think President Biden dropping out would be any kind of impediment to Trump's running or a reason to quit--he has a desire to get even that won't be satisfied in any way other than using the Federal government to get his revenge, and the targets of his vengeance are so many that removing one from his hit list would not change that. 

The key thing would be to get Trump out of the way soon.  Then Biden would have some opportunity to reflect and think that signal idea of the moment, "Why not someone else?" Once he announced his withdrawal under those circumstances, events would take their own chaotic course. If things happen so quickly that Biden could withdraw before the primaries, or if he announced his intention to complete his term and then step aside, a nominee could be determined by the convention delegates chosen, even if after the primaries.   

Biden could cite health reasons, and no one would really argue the point.  He could say he needed to help his son Hunter with his escalating legal problems, though I don't think he would. He could say he's fed up with Washington, dealing with Republican dinosaurs, even trying to please an ungrateful public, and again all those are plausible, but not his style. His would be more to say that he is relieved and ready to retire. 

I do think he would want to get out if the menace of Trump's return is lifted from us, but it would have to be in a form that is definitive, with regard to the 2024 election.  As I said in a previous post, there are many ways that can be accomplished.  

How to get him out, though?  I do believe the compounding effect of all these indictments and trials (and, presumably, some eventual convictions) will make him next to unelectable in November, 2024. ("next to" being the key words, when the Electoral College is involved) The key to turning things around is for Republicans to see this, just in time.  Nikki Haley has a chance to brand him as a loser we don't want around anymore; if she fails to do this, she deserves the suffering we will all experience. 

Another possibility is that he fatally shows weakness. I'm thinking physical weakness, but it could also be brazen cowardice.  Macho men all across the nation of all ethnicities see him as a kindred spirit, fallible but "strong".  Something like the visual equivalent of "pudding fingers" for Ron DeSantis could reveal the insecure weakling he is inside for all to see. 

Or he could just die. As discussed, sooner better than later. 

A 2024 Presidential Election without the Two Headliners

It would certainly be interesting.  The 2020 election focused on the binary choice in a narrow Presidential race, and we will discuss that scenario repeating itself in our next posts.  Without those two running, I would expect both that turnout would decrease and that third- and fourth-party percentages would rise (thinking RFKJR as Libertarian and Cornel Wes for the rejuvenated Greens).  

The Republicans would have more of a crisis, I think: post-Trumpism could take various forms.  Besides Haley and Ron DeSantis, there might be significant new contenders entering the race late.  I'm thinking specifically of Virginia's Governor Glenn Youngkin, who will be termed out in 2025, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some reptiles from Congress (there are none in the race now!), such as Ted Cruz (to raise his profile before having to defend his Senate seat when he finds out how few Republicans like him) or Josh Hawley.  Depending on the state and the timing of Trump's descent (a hole in the floor taking the place of the escalator), such new entrants might be too late for some primaries, but in a dynamic environment such as would develop in '24 under these circumstances, a late move could be decisive--for example, if there are a lot of delegates committed to a no-longer-active Trump candidacy who would then be up for grabs.  

As for the Democrats, if Biden dropped out the party might move quickly behind Kamala Harris, particularly if time were short (or the convention already past).  If there were time to mobilize a candidacy, though, she would be challenged--probably from the moderate wing, and one would expect that Gavin Newsom's loyalty to the Biden-Harris ticket (very laudable!) would end abruptly.  I don't see Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries throwing his hat in, as he is looking forward to a likely Speakership in the next Congress, or the one after.  As I suggested before, it might be the time that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez goes national for the first time, but only if she's confident that it would not be the last, regardless of outcome.   And why not, given the example of Joe Biden?  

The favorite in a general election under these circumstances would be the one whose nomination came about with the least internal damage to the party--the least chaotic, the least cantankerous.  There is big money waiting for the nominees, and they will fight hard to get at it.  The Democrats are historically more known for fighting with each other, but lately it has been quite different with the Republican party.  Once Trump is out of the way, though, you have to think they will come to a new, more authoritarian consensus (we don't call it "populist"), but one with some respect for laws now.  Maybe not recovering that famous certitude and consistency in talking points as quickly as November, 2024, though.  As for Congress, the starting point would still be the struggle to hold the Senate for the Democrats and the similar struggle of the Republicans to hold the House, dictated by the numbers.  This could change, however, if a landslide develops due to one party's mismanagement of this opportunity/crisis. 

I saw a panel discussing the Republican race yesterday:  the respected Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson suggested the chances Trump could be defeated were 1 in 10.  I'd buy that estimate and add 5% that Trump involuntarily leaves.   Out of that 15%, I'd say at least half of the probability would then have Biden finding a reason to step aside.  

So this is a low-probability scenario, but undoubtedly the most fun.   Maybe the best, all-around for the US.