This would seem the most logical outcome, yet it does not seem all that probable. The way this plays out is that Trump's support in the primaries carries him through to the nomination, but results along the line of the Standard Trump Trial Outcomes (see below) eventually cost him momentum, and his vote sinks relative to his fall opponent. (Here we presume that opponent remains Biden, though it could be against an emergency Democratic replacement, if it is a consensus choice not creating scandal.)
Based on review of Presidential contests from the last few decades, it appears there is a tipping point between the close ones, where a few medium-sized, winner-take-all results decide the Electoral College contest, and ones where the margin in the EC blows up disproportionately to the popular vote margin. The key ones to note in this regard are 1988 (Bush Sr. v. Dukakis) and 2008 (Obama v. McCain). Each was a 7-point popular vote win; Obama got 336 Electoral Votes and Bush 426. If you go much beyond that, it becomes an Electoral College rout (1980, 1964).
Biden won by 4.4% in 2020's popular vote. If he can gain just 2-3% against that result in 2024, the chances for Trump deteriorate rapidly. The three most-critical swing states from 2020 (AZ, GA, PA) are no longer so close, while NC comes into range. Trump's imminent loss also would be likely to encourage votes for any sour-grapes third parties on the ballot (Libertarian, No Labels, "Constitutional"), votes the Republicans might otherwise count upon.
In terms of the Trump Trials in this scenario, there will be a mixed bag by the time of the convention. Certainly not just a litany of guilty verdicts; there will be some trials in process, some not even commenced, probably a dismissal on some charges, maybe a mistrial. I'm thinking one or two convictions, no sentencing decisions to speak of. The Republican Convention attendees will be as worried as can be, but most will try to put a brave face upon it somehow. Some will not attend; there may be even a futile floor motion contrary to the professed unanimity. Some splinter group will put on a third-party opposition effort--a kind of Evan McMullin, maybe even him. A bad show.
From that point, the numbers trend down. Trump's future Oscar-winning performance in his defense at the GA trial* provides mixed-to-negative results in the polls. The one state poll that can be trusted--in Iowa--shows a dead heat. Florida too close to call.
The floor in terms of popular vote is clear: 37% (1984, 1964). This is true for either party, even when there is a third-party of significance. So, Trump scores in the 38-42 range and loses by 7-15 percent, the Electoral College result being a margin of 100-300 points.
A defeat so comprehensive that few Trump supporters remain afterwards to plead his cause.
As collateral outcomes, Trumpism is defeated, the Republicans have to regroup, the Democrats will be able to govern. The world will not fall apart. For two years, anyway.
Senate: This is the one scenario when the Democrats actually have a chance to increase their margin in the Senate. In particular, I would think this is the case when Manchin perceives the chance to keep his seat, stays put, and wins as a Democrat. The key swing state Senate contests (NV, MT, PA, WI) all hold, which makes the long-shot opportunities to pick up a GOP seat more interesting.
It will still be close, with Sen. McConnell in uncertain condition for the remaining two years in his term making for a scramble among the ambitious would-be party leadership to regroup in the post-Trump era.
House: We can talk about a Blue Wave again--we would hear about it, as the Presidential horserace becomes a runaway--but the Republicans have a pretty durable floor, somewhere in the range of 195 seats. Even more, if they can successfully fight off the courts' decisions that they must re-gerrymander in a way that allows more minority seats in the South.
There would be a variety of fallback positions Republican candidates will take under this scenario, but most could be described as "making local constituents' interests foremost". Hiding under the rock from which they came.
Democrats will pick up 10-15 seats easily, ensuring control. The next 10-15 are possible but not certain. That puts the tally in the range of 228 to 233, a workable majority for most purposes.
Local/State Elections: There may be a somewhat valid talking point for the mainstream media in the weeks following the wipeout about the relatively strong performance in red states for state and local elections.
Standard Trump Trial Outcomes
These are what I expect, in general, for all the Scenarios, except where noted.
1) NY Trial(s): It's best not to expect too much from the criminal trial finally filed in New York. When it comes, it will be Michael Cohen's comeuppance in court against Trump--Cohen's already been jailed for his role in this malfeasance. Trump's fraud in this case is somewhat minor league, by his standards.
It goes all the way back to 2016's hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels and false reporting of it. It wouldn't be so much except that it was the first-ever criminal indictment of him. In political terms, it's old business, certainly discounted in the 2020 re-election run, though that was a chaotic campaign season for the ages. Still, it could be the first criminal case to go to jury, and thus could result in the first conviction, if the timing works. It is secondary, at best, in terms of scheduling.
There's another NY trial, a civil case against the Trump Organization for similar offenses on a grander and more prolonged scale. Trump's accountant has already gone to jail on this, but he is so far going stiff upper lip. This one is the domestic equivalent of sanctions; that particular entity will be prohibited from a lot of legal and typical borderline activities they would normally engage upon under that name. It may end up being Trump's record-breaking sixth (?) business bankruptcy. It won't stop him and his criminal syndication activity, though; he'd just move it to DeSantis' Florida.
2) Mar-a-Lago documents case: This one is expected to be in Florida. I'm expecting this to be the last, or one of the last, to go to trial, probably after the 2024 election. The Florida judge seems very willing to do whatever she can, within and at the edge of normal ethical standards, to help Trump. In this regard, I think this case--a sure conviction, under any reasonable objective view--to be the least likely to have a negative effect on Trump's re-election.
Jack Smith cleverly positioned it to be a clearly winning case. It does not relate to whether Trump legally ever had possession of the documents, post-January 20. It relates to his stupid efforts to hide and prevent the government's recovering the documents, so his culpability is almost beyond doubt. I think his thinking is that it is a fallback case so Trump will not get off completely scot-free, but if it goes beyond January, 2025, there's the risk re-elected President Trump could make it all moot.
3) DC Case of January 6: I see this as the biggie: it is unmistakably the US v. Trump, and it is about whether his actions leading up to the riot constituted crimes against the US and the Constitution. Even if it's just called "Obstruction of a Federal Proceeding" (the most likely charge for conviction, as I see it), that proceeding was one with serious Constitutional import, so it puts him as opposed to our self-governing republic operating as such. It is clearly a violation of his oath of office. He did it, so if they execute the trial properly, it will lead to conviction, even upon appeal, whenever that comes up.
I don't see its leading to his disqualification under the 14th Amendment, though. That would probably require a two-thirds act of the Senate, which is not likely to be forthcoming.
As for timing, Jack Smith's prioritizing this one over the other, the Mar-a-Lago case. It appears the other DA's in other jurisdictions are also likely to do the same. This could make it the one that has a conviction prior to the Republican party nominating convention in July. Right now, it's scheduled for March, but some movement in that date (always backward) seems likely. Considering any phase of the campaign after April, it could be a factor, or still not sinking in.
Electoral impact: Yes, that is the question. Both the question of guilty or not guilty, but also what will happen after. Either way, really. That is, if the verdict comes before November. If it is still pending then, it becomes a whole different story, see Scenario 3.
4) GA RICO: This is the one that will affect popular media the most, so most likely to affect voter behavior, one way or the other. Unlike the others, it looks as though it will be televised!
RICO is a fair stretch, so appropriate in general, so questionable in this particular case. I think most will get off on some form of "it was too disorganized". The real organiztional activity occurred through untraceable phones and Telegram.
That is a nice package, but the real crimes are much more tangible and threatening, for the likes of Giuliani and Meadows. The likelihood of a conviction of Trump himself is too hard for me to say--it will probably need some form of smoking gun, beyond the incriminating phone call. Like in The Caine Mutiny, though, it doesn't matter the verdict--Trump will have great difficulty with any competent cross-examination, in which he will be exposed as the con man and habitual liar that he is.
*We should all expect Donald F. Trump to appear in person as defendant, to be precise in the defense case for the GA trial, contrary to the advice of every well-wishing legal partisan. Too risky!
He will be making his plea to be freed from all charges in this case. He will immortalize the obvious line, "I never even went to Georgia!" (I'm sure that will be proven false, in cross-exam.) His performance (before cross-exam, anyway) will be rehearsed, confident, if possible a little less whiny, sir? It will be the Exhibit A for future movie versions of the The Obstruction which will win someone an Oscar, not Trump. Whatever medium it is that they will be using in, say, 2053.
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