Biden Weakened

 It is painfully easy to imagine the situation in which President Biden cannot conduct a full-throated political campaign, though still able to function in his job.  It is one that is much more serious than the current state of Biden's compos mentis et corporalis, yet not death or even terminal illness or permanent incapacity.  It could even include his being an invalid for some period of time.  

It is not hard to see Biden adopting a nearly 100% digital, TV-based approach to the 2024 campaign under these circumstances, due to whatever health issues.  He almost did that in 2020, and it worked out okay. The circumstances will be different this time, and his minimal participation in public events, with no debates, will be noted by those whisperers who will not allow him to "do the FDR thing" (or maybe he would think of it as "doing the JFK thing").  He would be weakened, whenever it became general knowledge, anytime before the election. 

The critical question in assessing what could happen in such a circumstance is the timing. For this, it would be before the election. The 25th Amendment covers who acts as President, but not who would run for the office. No one's going to allow someone from the opposition to take the White House under those circumstances. So, the issue is what would be the effect on the election of a serious downturn in his health before the election? One where he doesn't step aside?

Whenever it becomes public, the stock market would surely take a tumble, a forerunner of a general near-panic. In this scenario, we assume Biden makes some sort of a "recovery" allowing him to soldier on. Which he would no doubt choose to do, other factors being equal.  

One other factor would be if some Democrats decide that this is too much, that their suspicion he can't complete the job has become a conviction, or even a certainty.  If Biden's obvious weakness shows before the nominating convention (Chicago, August; sound familiar?), a challenged President known to be unable to address the assembly could lead to disaster on the floor (see 1968).  Here, though, we're imagining Biden's survival in some form and going on to November.  Like Hubert Humphrey. 

As I recall, the Democrats' antics in '68 failed to convince "Democrat" George Wallace, who ran on a populist third-party and actually won 13% of the popular vote and several Southern states. Democratic splittism must wait for another time.  A third-party run by disaffected Democrats would be fatal. 

If Biden weakens very late in the general election campaign, the Democrats would have to cover themselves with agreement and public announcement on how electors pledged to Biden would vote on the equivalent of January 6, in 2025, if Joe were not going to be able to take the Oath of Office on January 20. Perhaps a President pro tempore of the Senate would be named, just in case, or perhaps Senate Democrats would block that in favor of Speaker Hakeem Jeffries taking the #2 spot in succession? 

That is all hypothetical, of course.  Some Biden weakness emerging very late in the campaign would be worst-case, as voters would be confused as to exactly whom they would be choosing to govern. A weakened Biden means a strengthened, enraged Donald Trump.  His bully nature would emerge, untrammeled. It has the potential to be the worst tragedy of all. 

Senate:  Without significant assistance from the President, several incumbent Senators would be in great danger.  Tester (MT) would have to run on his own, as would Sherrod Brown in Ohio; I feel Bob Casey (PA) would still be a winner.  But there could be trouble for Tammy Baldwin (WI) and Jacky Rosen (NV), while Manchin in WV then looks like a lost cause, and the party's push for Ruben Gallego in AZ to replace Sinema could fall victim to a weakened central party. 

We should expect the Republicans to regain control of the Senate in this scenario, Mitch or no Mitch. Something like  53-47 Republican looks like an average result given these conditions.  

House:  Though Democratic turnout might be reduced overall by such a demoralizing development, there might also be a countervailing strong push in heavily-Democratic districts to protect the nation from a complete Trumpist takeover. That might preserve the floor of the number of Democratic House districts.  Given the opportunities that exist to gain seats, there might even be a chance to get the majority back.  Unlike the Senate, where 60% of votes are needed for most purposes, in the House 50%+1 can get most things done.  (With a strong leader.)