Times are tough in this post-bailout universe, for me as for so many others on Main Street, which for me is just a quarter-mile away (here its formal name is "Paseo del Pueblo", but it's widely referred to as "the Main Drag").
I find consolation in consideration of the electoral map.
Probably the single most fascinating piece of analysis I've read out there on that specific topic was Sean Quinn's interview (to be found on 538.com) with the Obama field guy working Omaha, Nebraska, with its analysis of its implications.
Omaha is a serious part of Obama's 50-state strategy, though the argument for its utility is somewhat farfetched. It starts with a fact that it is not impossible for the Democrats to win the Presidential vote within the Congressional district centered on Omaha. This would actually garner Obama one Electoral Vote under Nebraska state law. (There is a similar, potentially-counteracting situation in Maine with one of its Congressional districts, which could go for McCain though the state as a whole might go for Obama).
The possibility that single vote could be decisive was sufficiently interesting to the thorough (to put it mildly) Obama campaign that the result of the triage analysis for each and every state came out clearly--if misspoken--from Chicago for this one: send someone to Ohama! That's "Omaha", not "Ohama", Obama. (sorry--I couldn't resist!)
In terms of secondary implications, one should note the increase in permutational complexity, and of difficulty in limiting oneself to a small set of plausible electoral vote tie outcomes. Aaugh!
We will now proceed to a review of whether various predictive Electoral Maps are Tootsie Pop, Epoxy, or two very different forms of terra non firma: Swamp Mud or Hot Pots.
I now praise those who recognize uncertainty, but also those willing to make a decision.
You: Rubber; Me: Epoxy!
The visualization of my electoral map is a huge structure which changes shape slowly, with some few discrete shifts in the building blocks but the overall picture resulting to be relatively inert. Think of a stone golem--a beast trampling all before it, with giant, unstoppable movements of mass. The structure holding it together is based on all the sludge: the state polls, pseudo-market indications, national polls, big picture, etc. Not so much on the latest news item, though; that mostly doesn't get through to the underlying infrastructure itself.
Rasmussen has, to his credit, a file one can access to view each change in state grouping since he started it at the beginning of the year. There's about forty of them. I can do better--here's the complete summary of changes up to now I've made in mine:
1) My initial detailed prediction and strategy analysis was on June 14 and I called it "The Wisdom of 245". Obama's strategy should be to find the shortest identifiable route (highest probability states) to 270--plus Ohio, as insurance. (It was Kerry + IA + NM+ CO=273 at the time). Ohio's a state we can win, and winning it would protect against a miscalculation in a smaller state. The Wisdom of 245? We need to contain Election-Day winnable states for McCain to the 245 which remain, or less. Challenge them everywhere and find weaknesses, keep them on defense.
The shocker of McCain pulling back in Michigan now is just the most recent confirmation that this strategy, or something like it, is working. Thanks be to Obama & Co.
2) September 6--McPalin and the Electoral Map--Palin gave the ticket a shot of youth, something like hope for the desperate and disaffected of the party's supporters. The number self-identifying as Republican shot up (but, alas, wound back down when the Economic Crisis burst).
The net effect of the McPalin Surge was to clarify the hold on most of the states for expected winners and narrow the plausible state winner changes to a few. Three shifts in my state assignments, defined as predictions for Election Day morning expectations: move CO and OH to toss-up; move NV to Obama. Now 269-240 with 29 toss-up.
3) Today--The Wisdom of 245, Pt. II--Obama wins the Issues debate, both domestically and from a subjective measure of leadership quality demonstrated. He firms up his claim on all states in which he's leading. As a bonus, Obama regains a favorable trend in several large states. I accept the reality of strong trend performance and move VA and FL from McCain states to toss-up (along with CO and OH, which I expect to remain that way until the end).
I expect the focus of Election Night to be on those four (usually combined as COVAFLOH), all of considerable star power, and not on the results in a variety of dinky states like NH and NM. At some point in the mid-to-late evening (depending on your time zone) Obama will be in a position to clinch the needed majority if he can win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or Colorado, and likely to hit just about 269 if he ends up with none of them. At this point, I can't see how these four cards will fall--But still.
That's where Omaha comes in. If it looks at the end that they'll get just exactly 269. (Also Nevada could then figure, if the night is trending in McCain's favor.)
In our view, Obama-Biden is threatening to break it open but has clinched nothing yet. There have been so many rapid shifts through this election season, and one would expect some firming of Republican support between now and then end. But just this shift of those two states--FL and VA--makes it look pretty lopsided, though. The new call is 269-200, with 69 toss-up.
Have to look more at those two rogue CD--in NE and in ME.
CNN: Tootsie Pop
Jon King's wise approach is to have a fairly large set of states stuck in the middle--the caramel part (colored yellow on his map). If you have enough in there already, the shift in or out of one or two never draws much attention or controversy. He had 120+ in their before; he has slimmed down the goo to 99 Electoral votes now--the same 69 as I, but also WI, MO, NH, and NV. Interesting, though a bit wuss.
OK, maybe not a Tootsie Pop but some sort of candy-coated, sweet-and-gooey-in-the-center blob on a stick. You tell me.
Swamp Mud--Rasmussen's approach is like mine, only it's sticky toward the past election results. He's very slow to move any state from the status quo ante, version 2004. He's only moved two states across from one side to the other: Iowa in the medium-strong category for Obama and New Mexico in the leaning-Obama. Like 538, he's got three shades of blue and red (though he really only uses needs two, except as a hedge).
He calls it the "Balance of Power Calculator", and clearly he's calculated to keep it balanced (Oregon in the weak-Obama category? Connecticut in the moderately-strong one?)
CQ is like Rasmussen's--slow to change. IA and NM are both in the lightest of three Obama colors, with no other states changing from Kerry-Bush, unless to toss-up. He does come up with 260-200, with 78 on the fence, which is pretty impeccable (NV and NH to Toss-up; hard to argue).
Real Clear Politics, 538.com: Hot Pots
The numbers just bubble up and come out in the map, without much filtering. Very typical is that the tossup states for them were MO, IN, and NC when I started this post--now NC is over to Obama. Please!
Right now 538 has it 344-194 as the average (mean, I'd think) of their simulation results. In terms of straight calls, they've now got 269 (including CO!) for Obama in their deepest shade of blue, and 71 more in lighter shades (FL, NH, OH, NC, NV). 340 leaning or solid to Obama, and only 22--MO and IN--as toss-ups.
These guys will have to get out their palettes and change colors soon, I think, as their color schemes are too unstable. 538 had McCain up by 20 or so electoral votes just a couple weeks ago. I give it credit, though: 538's already changed its map to show NE and ME's individual CD's, after I razzed Nate Silver that he hadn't been including the probabilities of those unusual outcomes in his simulations. (For the record, he now says he has included them all along!)
Here's a poll I put out on kos: (I'll have to do better at calling attention to it to get more votes)
I put them roughly in decreasing order of likelihood as I saw it (and didn't include IA and NM, which are not surprises, nor the possibility McCain could win a Kerry state--it's real, but wouldn't be popular on kos). The plurality for FL is reasonable--it would be a "big" surprise in terms of electoral votes, and impact--and current polls make it plausible, though I don't really buy it (or any of those below it). My vote was for OH, part of a win for Obama in the range of 285-298 electoral votes (depending on CO and NH).
As a bonus, note that on 538.com--click on title above--an O.F.O.--an Obama Field Operative--shared some rather confidential, accurate-seeming internal estimates of currently-projected electoral day margins in key states.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
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