Who Will Defend Us from Star Wars?

There are not many policy issues on which I fundamentally disagree with Sen. Obama's positions, but one of them is missile defense. In the first debate, Obama agreed with Sen. McCain that he would go ahead and deploy missile defense in Poland or Czech Republic as an example of things to do to contain resurgent Russian militarist ambitions.

I understand the need to look tough for the voters, and that Russia needs to be confronted at times in order to make it refrain from aggressing against its neighbors. I am just hoping that, once the electoral circus folds its big tent and the near-impossible task of governing this mess begins, President Obama (and, of course, I pray that becomes so) will take a second look at this wasteful notion. And then go further.

The reaction of the Putinites to our plans to deploy missile defense in Poland/Czech lands to dissuade Russian aggression would be...barely concealed laughter. It may not be called the Red Army anymore, but the Russian military would seem to have plenty of ways to knock over those states without launching missiles at them. Like, perhaps, a military invasion, which we would certainly be unable to do anything about.

Back in still-recent days, but before the Georgia conflict, we tried what I'd call "crypto-containment". We had the same nonsensical missile defense program proposal, but with our rationale being to protect Western Europe from Iranian missile attacks, Poland and the Czech Republic didn't want any part of it. Russia suggested we deploy instead in a friendly (to Russia) state that actually does border on Iran, Azerbaijan (they were mocking us). We didn't get the joke.

That one might have made sense, if Iran had any serious deliverable warheads to load on serious missiles (no on both of those) or any reason to attack Western Europe (once again, no).

Or, most importantly, if our missile defense systems actually worked.

Reagan's quaint notion that "it would be nice if we had some defense against nuclear missiles" is really the only active though still driving this colossal boondoggle (except the self-sustaining logic of the expenses themselves). Yeah, maybe it would be. But we don't. It doesn't work.

Even if it did work (i.e., if we could somehow shoot down a missile in flight), it wouldn't work (against a large quantity of missiles, which would be the way Russia would do it). A missile defense system that shot down half of the missiles launched toward us would be a terrific technological achievement--and one that would be totally worthless. Even if our system could work flawlessly in the hugely complex mission of shooting down all the missiles launched, and if we could somehow prove it, deploying it wouldn't work strategically--that would just destabilize the global deterrent system.

So, it's a good thing--in a way--that it doesn't work. We can pretend that it's something serious, and the Russians can pretend they care. So far (since the Georgian affair), it looks as though the right-wing Polish government is willing to pretend it wants missile defense, which must mean it serves some obscure domestic political agenda of theirs.

Fine. Let's install something there that looks like a fancy laser or anti-ballistic missile launcher--we don't actually have to put anything inside the hollow shells that would gleam (verifiably for spy satellites) inside the secure facility. I presume that the whole thing will just be a cover for some covert program, one of actual importance, that requires funds and deniability. If that's what it is, Senator Obama (and I know you're now getting the secret briefings), O.K. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink--let's do it!

Our missile defense program is a government expense area which seems to have no purpose, yet no one blocks it. According to an excellent New York Times investigative report published today and written by Eric Lipton, the U.S. has spent $110 billion on Star Wars since President Reagan (zap!) started it, and today it is "the Pentagon's single biggest procurement program".

Lipton's article told a remarkable story. A couple of mid-level Defense engineers generated hundreds of millions of dollars of expenditure that the Pentagon actually didn't want. When generals tried to point that out, these operatives would sic home-state-pork-protecting Senators on them and resistance would melt away.

Generally, this is the kind of stuff that we need to stop doing. Specifically, this is one program that needs to be killed entirely. When we get some confirmed reports of UFO's with both interstellar capability and really slow missiles, I'll reconsider.