The Wisdom of Two-forty-five

I'd like to announce my new unofficial partnership with Rasmussen Reports and Rasmussen Markets.com. Two-forty-five is the magic number for McCain's electoral defeat this year--if we can hold him to that figure in the projections of state/Electoral College outcomes going into Election Day, then we will win. If it looks any closer than that, we will have an official nail-biter.

We'll be using their data on our political posts going into the election, generally without attribution. Just assume it's been viewed if I post politically.

The Wisdom of Two-forty-five is readily apparent from the current Electoral College projection, informed by my role model, FiveThirtyEight.com, now running in Rasmussen's public content:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update


In a tactical outcome, or even for purposes of building a narrow but decisive outcome, they (538+Rasmussen) have all the states assigned correctly (likely ultimate winner) through their leaners (though I'd quibble with the level of certainty on some states). These assignments bring them to 260-240 Obama and the following Toss-Up States: Ohio (OH), Nevada (NV), New Hampshire (NH) , and Colorado (CO), with a total of 38 electoral votes. Obama wins with Colorado--which I consider the most likely--and one or more of the other three. My expectation remains for him to hold all 260 (including pick-ups from '04 New Mexico and Iowa), taking also CO, NH, and OH for 293. McCain gets 245, which is my objective: defend our claim to 293.

The top-line 245 strategy must be to hold Michigan and Wisconsin, and secure the four pickups. The measure of success for the organizational challenge will be the degree of success in Iowa and New Mexico, and for the domestic policy challenge that of MI, WI, and OH. New Hampshire, the solid Northeast generally, and Virginia (a chance to put a new state into serious doubt on Election Day), will be the ones to make it decisive and should reflect whether Obama resolves any doubts about his readiness to man the national trigger.

That last one will be cited in the exit polls from the Swath of Disappointment I expect on Election Day, as the south-central Bible Belt-type states uniformly fail to convert hypothetical poll support for Obama into electoral results. It is an issue that will be a key cleavage but will show up relatively weakly in the key Obama states discussed above.