| IA | 87 | 13 |
| NM | 85 | 16 |
| CO | 83 | 17 |
| NV | 74 | 31 |
| VA | 73 | 26 |
| FL | 72 | 27 |
| OH | 69 | 31 |
| MO | 61 | 39 |
| NC | 53 | 45 |
| IN | 46 | 55 |
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Ranking Likelihood of Change: Rasmussen Markets
Here are the top 10 states, in terms of Rasmussen Markets' likelihood of a change in control vs. 2004:
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2 comments:
The order the Rasmussen markets have provided--for the moment, at least--match with mine, except for one change: NV over CO.
I wouldn't agree with many of those percentages. For two or three, I would sell against Obama, except that I have generally prohibited myself from doing that. The only exceptions at the moment are a bid against Obama's winning ND, and against his winning over 360 EV.
Actually, one against him winning over 320 and one against over 360. The rationale for the bet against 320 is Ohio could well go for McCain, which would leave Obama at 318 (if he got IA, NM, CO, FL, and VA, but no other pickups). My personal over/under (median) at this time is 298.
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