Going Downmarket

After Colin Powell's endorsement surprised and cheered me on Sunday's Meet the Press, I heard something from Andrea Mitchell later on in the program that disturbed me. She reported that the Obama campaign is sinking $5 million into organizing West Virginia's Get Out the Vote (GOTV).

First, I am humbled by the brilliance of Obama's campaign, almost to the point where I realize I almost dare not criticize any move they make. Quite simply, it is the best-run campaign in the history of American national elections.

Almost, anyway. This decision sounds like an over-reach to me.

It's not that GOTV in WV, in principle, does not make sense. If WV's 5 electoral votes were competitively in the same situation as NM's 5, I would say, yes, rent 1000 vehicles and snake them through the state's treacherous roads, find those supporters in the hill and mill towns and the hollows and drive them in to the polls.

They aren't, though. One could make a theoretical argument that, because of its relatively small population, GOTV could turn the state and make the difference in case CO, FL, OH, VA, and NV all fail to come through (any one of them, given IA, NM, and loss of no states Kerry won, would be sufficient). Much more likely, though, if WV were truly in play, Obama would already have most of those, plus maybe MO or NC--with polling results better for Obama than WV--and what we'd be talking about is the difference between something like 360 EV and 365. Which is no difference at all worth talking about.

Yes, West Virginia is legitimately part of a 50-state strategy, and perhaps the polls have shown the state within the margin of error, now at the peak of Obama's margin (I expect it to contract 2-4 points from here). It's not worth $5 million of his contributors' money, and I don't believe for a minute he's going to win there.

I feel particularly strongly so since there is no doubt about the Senate race in WV, either--Jay Rockefeller's ahead by 20 points or so. I'd rather the Obama campaign slipped the $5 mil to Democrat Bruce Lunsford in KY, or even put it into NC, where Obama's got just as good a chance (better) of winning the state, and where his campaign's organizational capabilities could make a difference there in an extremely close Senate race of major importance to his ability to govern effectively. Even GA would be better (and I know Obama's put a lot of effort into it).

Obama's campaign may feel they have reached saturation in all the true battleground states, but somehow I doubt that, too.

Senate Races

How many seats will the Democrats get; will they make it to 60? This is the planned sideshow in the event that, on Election Night, Obama clinches victory early (which is exactly equivalent to VA, NC, and/or FL going clearly for Obama on exit polls and early results).

The question is very much like the one that dominated Election Night in 2006 once it became clear that the Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives: would they get to 50 in the Senate?

I have to admit I was wrong about that one, though I was right that it wouldn't make that much difference if they did. 51-49 wasn't enough to be able to get anything done; however 56-43-1 and a Democratic President (my prediction; counting Bernie Sanders but not Lieberman in the majority) should be, as a little compromise will bring a couple of liberal Republicans (and/or Lieberman) along to vote for cloture.

Here are my rankings of likelihood of pickup in the Senate seats where there's a chance:
1) New Mexico--practically a sure thing at this point;
2) Virginia--Mark will keep the seat Warner.
3) Colorado--Mark Udall has pulled away toward the end and looks as though he'll join cousin Tom.
4) Alaska--Stevens still has a chance if he gains acquittal before the election; looks dubious.
5) New Hampshire--Jeanne Shaheen is the most popular home-grown politician in the state; John Sununu isn't.
6) North Carolina--I'm expecting this to be the biggest win of the night.
7) Minnesota--it's a 50-50 proposition at this point; the third-party candidate is helping Franken's chances.
8) Oregon--ditto Minnesota.
9) Mississippi--this would be a very exciting win if it happens (I'd say about 33% chance)
10) Kentucky--this would be even more significant, defeating the Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would be a total disaster for the Republican Senate morale (25% chance)
11) Georgia--this would be a huge moral victory for the Democrats (beating the guy who slimed Max Cleland in 2002), but is unlikely.

The Democrats would need to win ten for a Lieberman-proof 60-vote majority, so it's a huge longshot. My guess is they will win 1-5, and one of 6, 7, or 8. Because third-party candidates usually lose support in the last few days as people get practical, I expect the Republicans' chance to be improving in MN and OR as we go into Election Day. A six-vote gain in the Senate campaign would be a major win, particularly since it appears once again the Democrats will not lose a seat they currently hold (and, a little-reported fact, this year the Democrats had the most seats to defend).

On Rasmussen, I've split my bets between 51-55 Democrats and 56-60. The latter is by far the more popular choice these days, but I don't think all bettors are considering that Sanders and Lieberman shouldn't count toward that total. A six-seat pickup should mean 55 Democrats (from the 49 "pure" ones they have today).

I will take a stab at a House prediction before Election Day.