Pro-Retro-spective Look at UNP-D (2A)

I think this is the part of the TV program where they try to raise our interest just before going to a commercial. The ending that comes afterward may be just what we expected, but at least we kept watching for the commercial.

The networks aren't too sure if there will be one more big primary show or if this is it, but at least they want to get good ratings on Tuesday. They have enjoyed promoting the notion that the winner of the two primaries will have the momentum, and the one who has less popular votes in Texas and Ohio will have evitability. All the time they're secretly hoping for a split decision, and another ratings payday in Pennsylvania.

Rhode Island has been perhaps the most interesting part of this drama. First, the Clinton campaign spins that Obama can only clinch the nomination by sweeping the four primaries Tuesday (thus holding Rhode Island as their secure fallback). Obama's campaign responds by going on the attack in Providence. This puts Clinton, Inc. into a tizzy: do they dare keep faith in their data, which shows them clearly ahead, or counter with a visit themselves?

I like the Obama Rhode Island move for other reasons. One is that moving from 30-something percent to 40-something there could pick up a couple delegates (are there actually geographical divisions within the state?) The second is the consistent principle of the Obama campaign to contest everywhere. The third is his defiance of conventional thinking: the answer to Ohio or Texas? is Rhode Island!

Finally, if we look at the highly-touted Clinton "firewall" strategy, I would describe the reality as as more analogous to New Orleans in recent years: the levee only had to break once, somewhere, and the storm waters came rushing in to inundate the City of Hillary. Rhode Island is one more place the Clintons may have to put their finger (cigar?) in. So to speak.

Report from the Spillway Watch

The polls in Texas have showed Obama has closed and it's 2C2C, while Ohio still shows a slight Clinton lead. The conventional thinking would thus identify Texas as the target for Obama to break through. I think the NAFTA issue--on which his stance is more clearly perceived than Hillary's very similar one-- is working in his favor in Ohio (and against him in Texas), and so does the Huckabee Factor (fictionalized form: The Hudsucker Proxy): Potential McCain Voters in Ohio may as well turn out for Obama, as the Republican race is over there. The word hasn't filtered down to everyone in Texas, though.

The best answer for Obama may be the complex one: heavy TV in Texas, followed up by intensive tactical support for the second step caucuses later on in the evening of Su-22 (sounds like a Russian fighter plane, but it is supposed to mean "Super Tuesday Too"); ground organizing in Ohio in preparation for the general election. Winning Ohio--a state which should, by all rights, swing to the Democrats this year--is huge for the Electoral College outcome, whereas the chances for the Democrats in Texas in November are negligible, or none. Furthermore, I think the Obama campaign management has thoroughly figured all this out.

Predictions: Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas by 2-4%; Obama keeps R.I. close, edges Clinton in Texas delegates, and ends up the night increasing his lead in pledged delegates (now about 150) by a half-dozen.

The Wednesday meeting of the Clinton campaign presents her and Bill with a stark forecast: despite delivering narrow victories in both of the key primaries, she still has virtually no chance of winning. She at least has the small consolation of firing her advisers before she decides to quit by the weekend.

Despite taking advantage of the Texas Two-Step nonsense, Obama makes a note to abolish the elitist practice from allowed party methods of delegate selection for next time around.