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Saturday, March 08, 2008

Big State Nonsense

This idea being promoted, in order to sway undecided superdelegates, that Hillary should be nominated because she can win the big states and Obama can't is total nonsense.

First of all, one could argue whether she won Texas this week. One should certainly argue that she didn't "win" Michigan or Florida. Obama won Illlinois, big time.

Hillary's campaign is certainly wrong if they believe they can ignore all the "little states" in the general election, as she has tried to do (after losing them) in the primaries. Obama has taken the lead by doing the hard work, state by state, building organization and turning out voters. Caucuses may favor his voters and disadvantage Hillary's to some extent, but generally the outcomes in the caucuses haven't even been close. Hillary's reputation in this campaign turns mostly on a couple of victories by microscopic margins in Texas and in New Hampshire.

The real point is, Obama will be running against John McCain with a united Democratic party behind him. Whether the popular vote in these big states has been for Obama or Clinton, Obama's always gotten more votes than McCain (OK, when he was on the ballot--he wasn't in Michigan). I suspect that Obama has outpolled ALL of the Republicans (not just McCain) combined in most of these big-state primaries.

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