The Latest Straw

It comes to us from Jonathan Alter, though I have no doubt it originates from the fertile, devious mind of Mark Penn. Hillary has no rational path to winning the nomination (as her lead among superdelegates dissolves like a time-release cold capsule), but she should stay in because there's the chance Obama could lose to John McCain.

It's not impossible, I guess, but it is somewhat poorly supported by logic. Let's look at the three basic scenarios and how they play out:

1--HRC makes her best deal, bows out, and endorses Obama now (or soon--before the bitter end, which I see coming around the time of the Puerto Rico primary). A chance to heal properly by the convention, rally the Hispanics and women for Barack.
Results: 75% chance for B.O. to win; 2% HRC (some freakish combination occurrence which will not be named); 23% McCain.

2--HRC fights to the bitter end and loses. Whatever endorsement Barack Obama ends up with doesn't taste too good to Democrats or Independents. Obama is at a disadvantage--as he is right now--in the matchup with McCain.
Results: 50% chance for B.O.; 50% McCain. Don't fear too much, though, as the Democratic gains in Congress are going to be locked in anyway.

3--HRC fights to the end and somehow wins, or Obama has a major catastrophe and HRC wins the nomination because she's still in the game. Democrats are the weakest they could be coming out of the convention.
Results: 33% chance for HRC; 67% McCain.

Thus, if the outcome in November were at all a criterion, she would step out. Soon.

Alter said the Clintonista advisers aren't so Macchiavellian that their basic strategy is to seek Obama's downfall through strategy #2 (as opposed to #1 which takes her out of the picture in 2012, or #3, which is highly unlikely), but I'm not sure that's true. Hillary should ignore this bad advice and consider her options carefully. If she pulled out, she could get V.P., Gov. of New York, or Majority Leader of the Senate--all good launching pads if Obama should lose. In scenario #2, she'll be a pariah if Obama loses; in scenario #3, she's got a two-thirds chance of being toast.

Hillary's chances of becoming President by 2013

Option 1--The Sure Thing--2% in 2008; 2013: 40% X 23% (she would get her shot if McCain won, and would have a good chance against his failed administration in a re-election try, or his replacement if he died or didn't run); 5% of 75% if she makes nice with Obama and then he can't run in 2013 for whatever reason. Total: 14.95%

Option 2--The Macchiavelli Route--0% in 2008 (by definition); 2013: 2% (at best) X 50% if Obama wins; 20% (at best) X 50% if McCain wins. As I said, she'll be blamed--properly so. Total: 11%.

Option 3--The Real Long Shot--6.67% in 2008 (20% of taking it away X 33% in the general); 2013-- 10% (at best) X 67% for getting the nomination again and doing the Benjamin Harrison/Grover Cleveland or Ali/Frazier title switch in the rematch (regardless of the outcome in the 3rd go-round). Total: 13.33%

By my calculation, her best shot of getting the Presidency someday is to give up now.