Update: World Cup et al.

I refrained from making predictions on the World Cup results in my last post on the subject.  That is because slight differences in the group standings, of a point or a single goal, could decide which side of the bracket a team goes, and thus affect the course of the rest of the tournament.  Now that the first round games are concluded, the brackets are set for the knockout rounds, which begin today. 

In general, the teams that were favored won their groups, so the brackets really are not so different from what could be anticipated prior to that round.  Several of them, including the US team, had their places locked up prior to the third and final group game, which allowed them to try out some other players.  There definitely was some drama in the final games, though, for other teams that were in a must-win situation--win or go home--including Ecuador, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Croatia. There were a couple of games in which a tie score would allow both teams to go through, and, unsurprisingly, they tied, though not necessarily without some tension involved.  

Of the 16 teams that didn't make it to the knockout rounds, the most notable were Uruguay (the only prior winner thus eliminated, though Italy didn't even make it to the tournament), Turkey (which defeated the USA in its final game, but was eliminated by head-to-head results with the other two teams with which it had a draw), and Iran, which was both unlucky and ill-treated in the run-up to the tournament, visa-wise. Iran recorded three draws in its three games, but its 0 net goal difference was edged out by the result of the final game played, a 3-3 tie between Austria and Algeria, which gave each of them one more standings point than Iran.  I'm just glad there was no real trouble involving the team with which the US is currently still warring, un-acknowledgedly (if that's a word). 

The most interesting result, for me, was that nine teams from Africa made it into the final 32,   Though none of them won their groups, several of them could be tough ones to eliminate, and some might even be favored in the first round.  I mention in that regard Morocco, which played Brazil to a draw, and Egypt, which had a strong first round performance. 

The standard for an excellent result, for most teams, is reaching the quarterfinals, the round of 8, which requires two wins going forward from this point.  No more draws--if the score is tied, the teams go to 30 minutes of extra time, and then the dreaded penalty kick shootout if still tied. I am hopeful that the USA team will make it that far:  they are heavily favored in their first game, against Bosnia-Herzegovina, but I will point out that this is the team that eliminated Italy in a penalty shootout after a drawn knockout qualifying match in March. One big difference is that match was in Zenica, Bosnia and this one will be in Inglewood, California.  If the USMNT wins that game, they will play either Belgium or Senegal, either of which is a tough opponent capable of knocking us out. 

In terms of first-round games, ones that stand out as promising match-ups are Netherlands-Morocco, Ivory Coast-Norway, and Portugal-Croatia, along with that Belgium-Senegal one, though any of the games could provide some drama, if one of the top teams finds itself in trouble late in the match.  A highlighted game one might expect in the second round is France-Germany. 

My picks for the final eight: France, Morocco, Croatia, Belgium (left bracket); and Brazil, England, Argentina, and Colombia on the right side.  I anticipate a finals repeat matchup from 2022, France and Argentina, which the latter won in a penalty shootout after a 3-3 draw in regular time, and Argentina to repeat as champions, which would be the first repeat champion since Brazil in 1962.  I will point out that France, Argentina, and Mexico were the only three teams to win all three of their group matches, so those first two are in top form, while Mexico had the incentive to win in its third game and thus stay in their home country for the next round. 

Baseball

We are exactly at the halfway point of the regular season--the All-Star game break, the traditional measure of the end of the first half, is a couple weeks away.  In terms of individual performances, the leaders for the MVP are:  in the National League, Shohei Ohtani, once again, and Kyle Schwarber, who is hitting homers at a torrid pace; in the American League, Yordan Alvarez now looks like the clear leader since the injury to Aaron Judge.  For the Cy Young, a couple of youngsters lead the pack:  Jacob Misiorowski ("Le Mis") of the Brewers and Cam Schittler of the Yankees.  

In terms of league standings, the only real change in the National League since my last post was the Padres falling back toward .500, so the top second-place team is now the Phillies.  In the American League, there's a good competition between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Yankees, with the rest of the teams mired in mediocrity, or worse. 

NBA

The big event was the draft, and a number of trades around that date (along with many players being re-signed, or not). This year's draft class is considered one of the best in decades because of its depth, so there was a lot of jockeying for draft positions.  I don't want to give away my favorites, in case one of my competitors in our Rotisserie league (the "Out of Bounds League") may be watching, but there are several of the one-and-done college players I have my eye upon, guys who may be able to contribute in their first year.  Typically the draft in recent years features some promising athletic types who will need a couple years to fully develop their skills, but that is changing.  

 The big trade was Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leaves the Milwaukee Bucks after 13 seasons (one NBA championship) for the Miami Heat; and the second was a strange trade in which the Charlotte Hornets, frequently bottom-dwellers who came on strongly at the end of the last season, traded off their best player in that season, Lamelo Ball, to the Minnesota Timber Wolves, in exchange for a valuable reserve player, Naz Reid, and some exchange of future picks. 

Wimbledon (Tennis)

The tournament starts this week; I am hoping the heat wave will break, but without too much rain disrupting things. 

In the men's tournament, the big question is whether Jannik Sinner will be able to return to the dominant level he showed prior to overheating in the second round of the French Open and bowing out. Carlos Alcaraz will not be playing, as he's still recovering from a wrist problem.  Alexander (Sasha) Zverev won the French, in the absence of Alcaraz and the heatstroke of Sinner, his first Grand Slam title after several close calls, and his chances here are real, as well.  Finally, we may see whether Novak Djokovic can challenge for that one more Grand Slam victory he's been chasing for a couple of years. 

On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka seemed to be cruising, a la Sinner, before her near-collapse in the final, from which it appears she has not fully recovered mentally.  Maybe that's a false impression.  In her absence, I would look for Coco Gauff, or the rising star Mirra Andreeva, who won the French, to step into the opening.  Serena Williams returns to the tournament after several years being retired--we shall see.  Also, tennis immortal Roger Federer returns to the grass surface where he had his greatest success, playing in a doubles semi-exhibition with a couple other old chums.