Biden Out

 I will grant that President Biden does not seem to be running a strong re-election campaign at this "late" date a mere 13 1/2 months before the election.  There's plenty of time, really. 

There may be a question of whether Biden has plenty of time, though, if one is speaking of 5+ more years in the most difficult job in the world at age whatever.  It's a legitimate question, though the answer to that is clearly not to elect an unhealthy guy 3 years younger with illegitimate motives and behavior, so I don't see it resonating in the standard B v. T scenarios.  Biden has some difficulty with public speech, which I can confirm was present 50 years ago, but those who listen know that he can think and communicate clearly.  He walks like an 80-year-old in good health, nothing unusual these days.  

The noise from Democrats about his voluntarily withdrawing from the political battlefield, while Trump is still on it, is just that.  It's not their decision; someone would have to convince Biden that they would be better at defeating The Former Guy.  To put it on the other foot, like, if Nikki Haley showed Trump data that meant she would have a better chance than he to defeat Biden, then Trump would withdraw.  Right. /s

So, I'm really just talking about the various ways Biden would involuntarily leave the race.  

One that we cannot simply ignore is the possibility of a scandal affecting Joe Biden. Personally,  not his family members.  Biden is certainly a wealthy man, but he should be after 40-some years of public service at the highest levels and a restrained lifestyle.  (If you don't pay honest public servants adequately, you should expect corruption.)  There is the possibility of Biden choosing not to run for re-election and citing Hunter Biden's looming conviction(s) and possible jail time;  my response would be that there would have been some other reason even in that case.  I do not think it would be determinant of his decision, as he says it was with his other son Beau's cancer illness in relation to choosing not to run for President in 2016 as the sitting VP to Obama.*

So, we are really down to the sickness, death, and 25th Amendment part of the discussion. It's something real enough, but it is also a quantifiable, manageable risk.  It's really only a risk for the campaign and the election, as the Constitution is now very clear about succession.  But what happens, and when in the campaign it could happen, are critical to consider:  who here remembers Sen. Eagleton as VP candidate for George McGovern in 1972  until he dropped out, after the convention?  It was a political mess and hampered that quixotic campaign, but it is something that Biden can avoid. ++ 

Here is how I would approach it, if I were in the position that Joe Biden finds himself in:  He should make out a Political Will.  He should then give it privately to three largely disinterested senior officials--I would recommend Congressional Leaders Schumer and Jeffries, and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  In it, he should indicate what his preferred successor ticket would be should something happen to him.  It could be Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, Kamala and throw it open for VP, just throw it open with some process indicated, whatever he wants.  Though it could be updated, the Will would remain secret, unless or until Biden was no longer able to serve.  Then it should become public.  In the meantime, those three would remain silent on the party leadership succession question but supporting Biden at all times, just as they do today. 

 Seems suspicious?  /s

The thing is, Biden is the elected representative of the people of the US until he's not.  Anyone who challenges that, under the circumstances, is basically an enabler of seditious conspiracy. So there's a pretty clear line.  Even most Republican office-holders will agree to that by now. 25th Amendment challenges to his authority are going to remain off-limits until there's extreme visible evidence. So, his point of view should matter; he's shown decent judgement, having been a better President than most (see below). 

If Biden were out, though, with Trump in the race, there would be madness without that Will. 

In the case after the nomination (assuming the Biden-Harris ticket is confirmed in the primary), Kamala would have to take the reins, though she would very likely be challenged.  In any case, she would have to announce, forthwith, her VP choice, and there would have to be some ratification process.  She would have no more than a matter of days.  Then, the campaign would have to advise each state how to modify the ticket on the ballot, if indeed they can change it.  Timing would be mission-critical, especially if the ensuing race is close. 

The case of his dropping out before the nomination is the one Democrats and Republican alike drool about, though I see the chances from now until then, considering all possibilities, to be less than 3%. Some kind of late train wreck, a 1968 scenario, as in RFK getting assassinated in California in June, just after the primary that was going to put him ahead.  Again:  The Will is the way to avoid that.  (Someone please tell them. :)

I saw a puff piece (no credits) with five pictures for that scenario:  Harris, CA Gov. Gavin Newsom, MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  I think all those choices are accurate, even Ocasio-Cortez, who would have no chance to win, except in something like a five-sided race, but might well be the Bernie wing's choice.  But that's before the primaries, so even less likely.  It is however likely that the Democratic race could start shaping up that way, even soon after the 2024 election, as an initial framing of something that will go on for years.  Biden may leave the White House sooner, or later, but it's certain that, as a duck, he will be lame by late 2025.  Not the right kind of duck, for the world. 

Would Trump walk all over the replacement nominee, no matter whom?  I say no, not any of them.+++  These are smart people, capable, calm, rational, and they have plenty of warning, so they will be careful around him.  He's still not likely to win, though a third-party could easily come into play here and disrupt the scenario, especially if the Democratic replacement process is just a disaster. 

 The Will, again.  Maybe they have one--we wouldn't know, would we?

 

Biden as President, in 300 Words or Less

In his first 30 months as President, Biden has governed, or tried to govern, in line with his supporters in the 2020 election, a Democratic voting base that's somewhat left of center. Faced with the narrowest of Congressional margins, he accomplished legislation to move us in directions needed for our future (for infrastructure and renewable fuels).  As a longtime insider, he was able to get done more with such a fragmented legislature than Obama.  Still, he hasn't gotten either the current or previous Congress to move on immigration, or to do enough to secure Federal elections. 

In many public addresses and executive actions, Biden tried to protect us from the damage his opponents would cause us, often designed to handicap or cripple the capabilities of his administration.  (I'm thinking of the Supreme Court, Republican Congress, a former President.)

 He has performed well on foreign policy, a strong point, doing his best to re-establish ties with allies skeptical after Trump. The contrast in behavior with Trump is stark: Biden has acted with solemnity when he needed, silence when needed, and he stood up to Putin in a way that mattered. 

With regard to China, he has lowered the temperature despite many challenges; with Russia, he ended Trump’s appeasement when it became necessary with the Ukraine invasion; with India and some other Asian nations more than willing to let us stand with them, he has located and brought them in.

On the military side, he didn't get good execution when he decided to go forward with Trump's deal with the Taliban.**  After that, no major direct US military engagements.  We seem appropriately ready, involved, but at peace.  Even that is criticized. 

As for economics, while Presidents can’t do so much, Biden, like Obama, inherited a sick economy and got it back on its feet.

Yeah, gas prices suck--too bad. 

 (That last sentence not being part of the 300)

Footnotes

*Utah Senator Mitt Romney and Biden would have faced off in a better 2016 election, but Romney had expended his political capital fruitlessly challenging the incumbent President Obama, while Biden opted out, leaving the door open for Hillary Clinton.  Romney would have provided a much better opponent to Trump in the Republican primaries than John Kasich and Ted Cruz did.  Alas!

**If Trump were really such a good deal-maker, he would have traded better with the Talib:  Make Bagram Air Force Base US territory (like Guantanamo, really) and you get the rest of the country for your sick policies.  That would have provided a real deterrent and made for a better withdrawal. 

++  The reference I suggest is Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, 1972, by Hunter S. Thompson.  If you haven't read it, it's a good ride. 

+++OK, maybe AOC, who would probably scream at him, he's so awful. That would hurt her, not him, as the standards are different for Democrats and their supporters.  As I see on comment threads, IOKIYAR.  (It's OK if You Are Republican.)